Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot ?



Nikita Klæstrup

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

[Tender Branson]

I was just asking, because if elected she would have been one of the hottest MPs anywhere for sure.

[Tender Branson]

That's going to be another really close one ... I'll post my predictions later on Tue/Wed.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

23.5 A
21.3 V
18.9 O
  9.1 Ø
  7.5 I
  5.1 Å
  5.0 B
  4.9 F
  3.4 C
  0.9 K
  0.4 Others

Turnout: 85.7%

47.6% Government (87 seats)
52.0% Opposition (92 seats)

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

[Tender Branson]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

It might as well work the other way around. People with jobs can't vote during the day, so they only go to the polling booth in the evening.

Don't know how it is in Denmark, but here in Austria the "working class" is actually solidly right-wing (strongly FPÖ and ÖVP, and to some extent strong Green with the white-collars). It's the unemployed and retired and students who are the left-wingers in Austria, and who are voting strongly SPÖ (unemployed & retired) and Greens (students).

The "working class" is by definition not white-collar. "Working class" =/= people who work.

Yes, I know. But in Denmark's economy of 2015 there's hardly any real "working class" (blue-collars) left because about 85% work in the service sector and just 15% in industry ... This classification is so 1900.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway in Denmark the two parties with the most obviously working class voter profile (however defined) are the SDs and the DPP (although both, of course, attract votes from other sources). Other parties (whatever the camp) tend to have a more affluent* profile. I generalise greatly of course.

I agree. It's exactly the same in Norway. Just the "NPP" is called Progress Party instead.

It's even more obvious here in Austria: In the 1970s under Kreisky, 70-80% of blue-collar factory workers voted SPÖ.

In the Styria state election 3 weeks ago, exit polls showed that blue-collar workers voted 61% FPÖ and 18% SPÖ.

Now that's some swing ...

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll:

Slight 51%-49% lead for the Opposition and 89 vs. 86 seats.

[Tender Branson]

Really can't say anything about this yet, but I have a strong feeling that DPP's strength has been greatly underestimated.

I already knew it somehow and carefully put them at 19% in my prediction, 3% higher than what the final polls showed ...

[Tender Branson]

Well, then:

Bye, bye Helle ...

[Tender Branson]

Reminds me of the Styrian state election, just with small differences.

What's the chance that if DPP ends up ahead of V, that A and V end up in a grand coalition with some smaller party as stirrup, to prevent a DPP-led government ? Maybe if V plays it right, even with V getting the prime minister, despite only being third ? By playing their cards right they could pressure A into giving up the PM post ...