UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[vileplume]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

[vileplume]

Labour were second here in 2015 but with like 17% of the vote.

-Yes they were but they will probably lose second. I believe whatever vote they have here comes from the WWC parts of Sleaford which is the kind of place Corbyn's Labour is going to go down like a bucket of cold sick. A vote share in the low teens is probably the most likely outcome.

-UKIP will make an effort here and will probably get into the 20s (apparently Suzanne Evans who is one of their less dislikeable figures is considering a run).

-The Greens didn't even run here in 2015 so there is no chance they run in a by election where a lost deposit is a certainty.

-The Tories will take the natural hit of a governing party and fall into the mid 40s but will still hold easily.

-This area is pretty horrible demographically for the Lib Dems so they will struggle to gain much traction. They will probably pick up a few disaffected remain voters mostly in North Hykeham (middle class Lincoln suburbs) where they have done well locally in the past to push them into the low teens and allow them to compete with Labour for third.

Essentially 1st and 2nd are virtually locked in as Tory, UKIP respectively. The battle is for third between Labour and the Lib Dems (the betting markets agree).

[vileplume]

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

turnout was half of 2015 so I wouldn't read too much into this, maybe one can spot a little trend of "shire labour" moving to LibDen post-Brexit.

I am a bit surprised Ukip hadn't done better here

I would read quite a lot into actually it tells us that the Tories have their 'leave' flank covered and really their only weak spot at the moment is their strongly Remain seats that are marginal vs. the Lib Dems e.g. Bath. This was a fantastic result for the Tories considering they are the government.

The collapse of the Labour vote despite them being the opposition (which sounds more like a joke with each passing day) is also telling as this time there was no incentive for Labour voters to vote tactically and it just suggests that they have just lost support. The Labour vote in this seat was primarily from the white working class parts of Sleaford and we are perhaps seeing the beginning of the collapse of the WWC Labour vote. This should have Labour MPs and supporters very worried, there is some signs the right of the party (Kinnock Jr., Kendall etc.) are starting to realise the potential disaster however the leadership remain blissfully unaware and are making the problem worse with their policies on immigration amongst other things. Oh and Labour are at 25% in a YouGov poll today their worst showing since September 2009 at the height of Brown's unpopularly, great work Jeremy keep it up.

[vileplume]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

Well, if it is up to Corbyn doing a better job, I fully expect Mr. Farron to be the opposition leader after the next election.

Lol. The strength of the Labour brand is enough to prevent a complete wipeout, in many seats across the country a donkey wearing a red rosette would be easily elected.

As for the Lib Dems the biggest problem for them in a general election is high turnout, the higher the turnout the worse they typically do. The Lib Dems should probably focus all their resources at the next election holding what they've got (some may prove tricky like Carshalton and Wallington) and throwing everything at maybe 10 or 15 others with a goal of getting to 20 seats. It's going to take several elections to rebuild to where they were, if they ever manage at all.

[vileplume]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

Saying Corbyn has faults is the understatement of the century I can barely find one quality that makes him suited to being opposition leader. You might think Owen Smith looked like a joke but the problem is the vast majority British public thinks Corbyn is a joke, either that or an extremist. I think he is the most unpopular major party leader since polling began and a substantial amount of Labour's own voters would prefer Theresa May as PM. Did you see what a farce his 're-launch' was this week? I swear every time he opens his mouth he manages to make himself look ridiculous.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/03/last-voting-intention-2016-sees-labour-lowest-leve/

If Labour manages to lose these upcoming by-elections it might be in their long term best interest if it causes Corbyn to fall on his sword and they get a less useless leader. 

[vileplume]

Polling day is today in Stoke on Trent Central and Copeland.  It's fair to say that the weather forecast is pretty bad in both; don't expect high turnouts.

Andrew Teale's previews for both by-elections are here.

The Stoke campaign has been rather more high profile, largely due to the antics of UKIP and their leader and candidate there, Paul Nuttall.  From a Labour perspective (more, in my case, an anti-Tory and anti-UKIP perspective) I'm rather more worried about Copeland, though, which is the sort of seat the Tories would expect to win in a General Election on current polling.

Yeah it would be very likely the Tories would take Copeland in a general election held today. However this is a by-election where the composition of the government is not at risk (i.e. voting Labour in Copeland today will not let Corbyn become prime minister) and other more local issues like nuclear power and the hospital become the focal points.

Sitting governments almost always do badly in by-elections while oppositions usually do well, even very unpopular oppositions usually do ok. Incidentally if Labour narrowly hold the media will probably treat it like some kind of success, as expectations for Labour are rock bottom at present, when in reality a swing to the government in a by-election is actually a horrendous performance.

The bookies seem to think that the Tories are the favourites but I'm not so sure thy called Richmond Park wrong for example. Plus Labour's candidate in Copeland seems decent too (unlike their terrible one in Stoke).

As for Stoke Labour should hold but only because UKIP epically screwed up. Turnout (and enthusiasm for any of the parties) will be at rock bottom. Also the Guardian has a good video about Stoke Central in their latest instalment of anywhere but Westminster if anyone's interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGis5Wf8_eQ

[vileplume]

Polling day is today in Stoke on Trent Central and Copeland.  It's fair to say that the weather forecast is pretty bad in both; don't expect high turnouts.

Andrew Teale's previews for both by-elections are here.

The Stoke campaign has been rather more high profile, largely due to the antics of UKIP and their leader and candidate there, Paul Nuttall.  From a Labour perspective (more, in my case, an anti-Tory and anti-UKIP perspective) I'm rather more worried about Copeland, though, which is the sort of seat the Tories would expect to win in a General Election on current polling.

Yeah it would be very likely the Tories would take Copeland in a general election held today. However this is a by-election where the composition of the government is not at risk (i.e. voting Labour in Copeland today will not let Corbyn become prime minister) and other more local issues like nuclear power and the hospital become the focal points.

Sitting governments almost always do badly in by-elections while oppositions usually do well, even very unpopular oppositions usually do ok. Incidentally if Labour narrowly hold the media will probably treat it like some kind of success, as expectations for Labour are rock bottom at present, when in reality a swing to the government in a by-election is actually a horrendous performance.

The bookies seem to think that the Tories are the favourites but I'm not so sure thy called Richmond Park wrong for example. Plus Labour's candidate in Copeland seems decent too (unlike their terrible one in Stoke).

Yes, people don't vote in by-elections like they do in general elections, but I'm not convinced this thing about the government not having gained a seat in a by-election since 1982 is that meaningful in this context: most oppositions were not polling as badly as Corbyn's Labour, so there weren't many comparable opportunities.

The best comparisons are the Uxbridge and Beckenham by-elections in 1997 when the Tories were even further behind Labour than Labour are behind the Tories now. In Uxbridge, despite their dreadful poll ratings, the Tories got a decent sized swing towards them in Beckenham there was a moderate swing to Labour. If there is a swing to the Tories it is absolutely awful showing, if Labour manage to lose it then they have managed to do worse than the Tories at their nadir when they had only 165 MPs...

[vileplume]

While Labour did win it is still a bad result for them despite their victory. Their vote share was down and there was a swing towards the Tories (whose vote share rose) despite them not really trying. Labour really have Paul Nuttall and UKIP's catastrophic campaign to thank for this pretty poor victory.

[vileplume]

Factoring in national polling this wasn't a terrible night for labour

Oh it is abysmal. Even the Tories in 1997 won by-elections when they were polling further behind the government than Labour is now did far better in by-elections than Labour did tonight. Even very unpopular oppositions usually do ok in by-elections as the public usually use them as a free opportunity to kick the government. I don't think anyone expected the Tories to win by as much as they have. Labour is in a very deep crisis.

[vileplume]

But fear not comrades: a local by-election was gained in Basingstoke the other way! Everything is absolutely fine.

Labour's local government organisation is apparently pretty strong in Basingstoke while being utterly miserable in the rest of Hampshire. Basingstoke is probably trending Labour especially if it loses the Tory stronghold ward of Basing in a future boundary changes due to population growth. I doubt Labour will ever gain back Portsmouth North (which is effectively safe Tory now) in the short or medium future especially if it gains Purbrook and Stakes from Havant where Labour gets obliterated by the Tories.

The Labour gain in Winklebury suggests a gain in the county division of Basingstoke North West in May. This may counteract any losses in Rushmoor or Gosport (where apparently boundary changes have been unfavourable). The Tories will comfortably remain in control of Hampshire County Council anyway lol.

[vileplume]

Oh and the main reason for a Labour gain in Winklebury can be explained mostly due to the proposed closure of a local school which the Labour candidate was the main petitioner against (even the tory candidate signed up to his petition lol).

[vileplume]

He's spot on when he says UKIP targeting Labour is laughable, and pretty much trying to copy the SNP.

In order for UKIP to compete in White Working Class Labour seats in the North and Midlands they would have to squeeze the Conservative vote in these places to within an inch of its life but with the Tories doing as well as they are nationally that is simply not going to happen without UKIP running in a excellent targeted campaign (which they are very bad at). If UKIP had a good local candidate in Stoke Central and ran a strong campaign it is very possible Tory voters would have crossed over and backed them which would have been enough for them to defeat Labour.

[vileplume]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

People really hate Jeremy Corbyn. He might be the most unpopular political figure in Britain right now.

Yeah here is a poll from YouGov about Corbyn's favourability (http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xrkkkidqmc/InternalResults_170203_Favourability_W.pdf):

Net: -40

Remain: -24
Leave: -61

Tory: -74
Labour: -2 (lol!)
Lib Dem: -50
UKIP: -69

Male: -46
Female: -34

18-24: -1
25-39: -31
40-64: -46
65+: -68

ABC1: -40
C2DE: -40 (this is the working class traditionally Labour's base)

London: -37
Rest of South: -44
Midlands/Wales: -40
North: -35
Scotland: -37

For comparison he's Theresa May's approval rating in the same poll:

Net: +6 (+46 on Corbyn) -Fairly impressive for a politician to be in net positive territory.

Remain: -29 (-5 on Corbyn)
Leave: +42 (+103! on Corbyn)

Tory: +63 (+137 on Corbyn)
Labour: -44 (-42 on Corbyn)
Lib Dem: -13 (+37 on Corbyn)
UKIP: +41 (+110! on Corbyn)

Male: +4 (+50 on Corbyn)
Female: +8 (+42 on Corbyn)

18-24: -24 (-23 on Corbyn)
25-39: -11 (+20 on Corbyn)
40-64: +14 (+60 on Corbyn)
65+: +45 (+113! on Corbyn)

ABC1: +1 (+41 on Corbyn)
C2DE: +12 (+52! on Corbyn)

London: -3 (+34 on Corbyn)
Rest of South: +22 (+66 on Corbyn)
Midlands/Wales: +7 (+47 on Corbyn)
North: +/- 0 (+35 on Corbyn)
Scotland: -28 (+9! on Corbyn)

Corbyn is also damaging the Labour brand which is traditionally a strong one, much more so than the Tories. In this poll Labour is at net -29 while the Tories are at -10 and as someone said on the Daily Politics today the longer Corbyn is Labour leader the more damage is done to the party's reputation which will be progressively more difficult and take substantially longer to reverse the longer he is in place.

[vileplume]

The interesting thing is that Copeland had a lot of Labour-Tory switchers, who were screaming that they were doing it as a protest against Corbyn. A seat that voted for Miliband in 2015 is generally (outside of metro areas) a sign that the traditional Labour vote will put up with anything, but with Corbyn there really is just a general feeling he needs to go.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/the-view-from-copeland-lifelong-labour-voters-want-corbyn-out

The main reason Labour lost so badly was that UKIP's vote collapsed to the Tories. This is what happened in national polling too as UKIP fell sharply after the referendum and May replacing Cameron as PM the Tory vote rose by a similar amount, look at the polling graph the decline in the UKIP vote and the rise of the Tory share mirror each other. Labour's decline has been more steady , losing votes presumably the Tories and the Lib Dems. It has carried on getting worse since Corbyn was re-elected leader showing that the argument that the PLP is responsible for the state Labour is in is rubbish.

If the UKIP vote collapses to the Tories in provincial England the way it did in Copeland Labour should brace themselves for very heavy losses. In order to counteract this Labour needs a leader that can take votes directly from the Tories and that is obviously not going to be Comrade Corbyn.

Polling graph for the 2020 election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

[vileplume]

The Tories got less votes in Copeland on Thursday than they did in 2015. As I said before, abstention was probably the biggest issue for Labour - there's a sense of gloom starting at the PLP and going right down to the Labour-sympathetic part of the electorate.

Well they only a got a few hundred less which is an extremely good performance for a by-
election. You can't seriously be suggesting that every voter that voted Tory in 2015 turned out and they didn't gain any voters from elsewhere... It is pretty clear that the Tories gained heavily at the expense of UKIP which is why they won (look at national polling if you don't believe me). As for Labour sure some of their voters sat home but probably not a particularly different proportion to the amount of 2015 Tory voters who didn't vote.

If a general election were held next week Labour would lose Copeland by even more than they did at the by-election probably by more than 10%. Governments always perform better in general elections than by-elections, the hospital which certainly helped Labour to an extent here would not be an issue as the public would be focussed on national issues and the potential of Corbyn becoming prime minister would be near top of the public's concerns (I'm sure all the skeletons in his closet e.g. the IRA will be raked up too). Unless something drastic changes Labour is on course to sustain very heavy losses to the Tories in 2020 with far safer seats than Copeland falling.

If the Tories had squeezed into second in Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2015 and the media hadn't blown the whole thing up as Lab vs UKIP the Tories could well have run Labour very dangerously close there too by squeezing UKIP.

[vileplume]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

[vileplume]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

Hampstead and Kilburn may not be the best example. While I agree that it is deeply unlikely to be lost to the Tories, and I am not a particular Lib Dem fantasist, it is in that very peculiar group of seats that will have a lot of both Labour to Lib Dem and Tory to Lib Dem switchers over Brexit, and it does have a history of Lib Dem strength. I could see Labour losing it in that direction before they lose it to the Tories.

Thinking the Lib Dems could win Hampstead and Kilburn next time is fantasy thinking. They have zero chance of gaining any seat where they weren't at least at least a moderately close second last time (by-election pickups excepted). Here they only narrowly saved their deposit.

Deeply unlikely is pushing it, if Labour get blown out the water nationwide they'd probably be buried by in Hampstead and Kilburn by the extent of the landslide. My point was merely that the swing from Lab to Con in this kind of seat would be substantially smaller than a seat like North East Derbyshire which has a comparable majority.

Your point about the Tories losing a lot of votes to the Lib Dems is incorrect too. The Lib Dems gains in the national polls has come almost entirely at the expense of Labour. Sure there has probably been some churn with the Lib Dems gaining a handful of Tory voters in places like this while losing some votes to them in more Brexitty areas like Torbay.

If Labour do start to lose lots of remain votes to the Lib Dems (they have only lost a few as yet) then Hampstead and Kilburn would likely go Tory as Labour crash past them in a result like this:

Tory: 40% (-2)
Labour: 36% (-8)
Lib Dem: 20% (+14)
Others: 4%

However remember despite his stance on Brexit Corbyn remains much less unpopular with remain voters than leave voters.

Oh and if the boundary changes go through the new Hampstead and Golders Green would be a Tory seat anyway.

[vileplume]

If the Tories had squeezed into second in Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2015 and the media hadn't blown the whole thing up as Lab vs UKIP the Tories could well have run Labour very dangerously close there too by squeezing UKIP.

Hahahaha. No.

Well the Tories vote share rose without them even trying very hard so it stands to reason that if the contest hadn't been turned into a two horse Lab vs UKIP contest by the media and they'd thrown the kitchen sink at it then they would have done substantially better. Would have they have won, no, but they could have got over 30% given how badly UKIP's campaign went. Dangerously close is probably an exaggeration but they could have got closer than anyone ever thought possible.

[vileplume]

The writ has been moved for Manchester Gorton to be held on 4th May

Same day as local elections of course.

Smart move because the Greater Manchester Mayoral contest will ensure higher turnout and which helps Labour (and the Tories though that's not overly relevant in Manchester Gorton) while it hurts the Lib Dems and 'independents' like Galloway.