UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Hnv1]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

Must be one of the whitest constituencies out there

[Hnv1]

British activity on this board has really dried up compared to the days of Brown.

Sleaford and North Hykeham result:

Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55

turnout was half of 2015 so I wouldn't read too much into this, maybe one can spot a little trend of "shire labour" moving to LibDen post-Brexit.

I am a bit surprised Ukip hadn't done better here

[Hnv1]

I smell a coup here with a possible Tory gain as some Labour voters will go Ukip

[Hnv1]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

He is a pathetic Arsenal loving Muppet thought. This football analogy has some substantive point: his brand of Labour is to national politics what Arsenal and their comedy support is to English football, a detached ridiculous London phenomena no one can see back in power.

I have plenty of mates living in the home counties (that happens after three decades of supporting Spurs), I was at a dinner in Sussex last May where a family of Labour voters (and proper yids) all said they can't see themselves voting for him due to his quirky metropolitan attitude. Labour under him will be demolished.

Personally, I don't think he's a decent guy (seems like the super liberal prick everybody hated in their undergrads). But that's a matter of opinion I suppose.   

[Hnv1]

As much hate as Corbyn receives (& I admit he has faults), the guy is a decent guy, as in very dignified even in attacking & he has got a really good quality voice. The other guy Owen looked a complete joke next to him!

He is a pathetic Arsenal loving Muppet thought. This football analogy has some substantive point: his brand of Labour is to national politics what Arsenal and their comedy support is to English football, a detached ridiculous London phenomena no one can see back in power.

Corbyn a London phenomena? I believe his support in the leadership elections was generally stronger outside of London than within it and he's hated (or at least seen as a complete joke) by the London media. Blairites (particularly a certain MP who is about to quit Parliament) are surely more metropolitan than Corbyn but they're supposedly more electable than him.

I'd suggest that talk about the 'metropolitan elite' is, generally speaking, a very metropolitan thing in itself.

I didn't say anything about an elite, there's more in London than just an elite (well there are several types of elites in the metro). Corbyn's of the London looney left old guard now backed by their obnoxious hipsters crowd moving from all other down to gentrify South London.

Labour members=\=Labour voters. You don't win a GE with the Bristol students union

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The biggest thumping he's going to get is in the Midlands followed by the North East

[Hnv1]

Labour to comfortably hold Stoke and marginally carry Copeland

[Hnv1]

Well that's quite a defeat (to the tories, UKIP could a slap on the hand last night), expect mounting PLP pressure on Corbs now

[Hnv1]

Well they only a got a few hundred less which is an extremely good performance for a by-
election. You can't seriously be suggesting that every voter that voted Tory in 2015 turned out and they didn't gain any voters from elsewhere... It is pretty clear that the Tories gained heavily at the expense of UKIP which is why they won (look at national polling if you don't believe me). As for Labour sure some of their voters sat home but probably not a particularly different proportion to the amount of 2015 Tory voters who didn't vote.

I wasn't suggesting that, but to go down by over 5,000 is highly unusual (and poor) for an opposition party in a by-election. Though admittedly if you add 3,000 to the Labour total (i.e. enough for victory) it would have entailed an unusual high turnout for a by-election.

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

The worst thing from Labour's POV is that (as things stand) the marginals of the Midlands and certain parts of the North will swing even further to the Tories - and of course they already swung pretty heavily to them in both 2010 and 2015. Nuneaton (now seen as the quintessential Lab-Con marginal) could deliver a five-figure Tory majority for example.

To make things even worse I think Lab look certain to lose up to 7 safe seats in Wales, I had a vacation in northern Wales\Flintshire during the summer and the locals (who are traditional Labour) were far from keen on Corbyn.  I could see a wipe out of all 4 seats up north and some of the seats in the south.

[Hnv1]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

You underestimate how much support has been lost as a result of the stance Corbyn has taken over Brexit. It's... um... bad.

What exactly is Corbyn's stance on Brexit? He doesn't really seem to have one.

That the NHS must be saved