What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Virginiá]

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

It's definitely worth it, but only with minor contributions from the national party. Democrats are very likely (imo) to reestablish a strong veto-proof majority in the legislature in 2018, so it's not imminently necessary to oust Hogan as it is in other states, where we need veto power over GOP legislatures and the next redistricting cycle.

I think if 2018 is a good year for Democrats, we could probably take MD back without sacrificing precious resources for more important states.

[Virginiá]

Tilt R, but it's not as if Hogan is able to get much done anyway in such a Democratic state. Republicans should triage him if things aren't looking good and focus on states where Republican governors at least have some power (WI, FL, MI, PA, OH).

Well it's not a totally useless job, he does do things like appoint judges (with Senate consent of course, so major Democrat influence there), and could veto some bills right now if with a smaller number of Democrats needed to rally against a supermajority.

But you're probably right - if Hogan wins, that is great (for Rs), but there is no good reason to spend money to help him. Not with all the other important races going on. I'd bet the farm that Democrats gain a decent number of seats in the legislature in 2018 after 2 bruising Obama midterms that have depleted their ranks in the State House (MD holds legislative elections in midterms only). Such a change in majorities would make Hogan's rare chances at sustaining vetoes pretty much non-existent.

[Virginiá]

http://www.wbaltv.com/article/poll-approval-ratings-for-gov-hogan-pres-trump/12462526

62% approval puts him within striking distance, although the opinion that Hogan is vulnerable isn't exactly a fringe one. It's just nice to see some numbers that confirm that. One upside for him is a bare majority of registered voters enthusiastic in 2018 said they are leaning towards a vote to re-elect him.

[Virginiá]

I don't recall what Ehrlich's approval rating was at this point before the 2006 election, but he was in positive territory when he was defeated.

53% - 36% in Jan 2006 (Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies - link)
56% - 41% in June 2006 (WaPo - link)
55% - 42% in October 2006 (WaPo - link)

WaPo's poll from early 2004 showed mid-60s, so there was a clear decline.

My personal belief is that Hogan's popularity is definitely an asset, but Maryland Democrats have a high floor and the enthusiasm gap and Trump's massive unpopularity in the state might just be too much to overcome, even for a well-liked Republican governor. This is really the worst kind of environment Hogan can run in, and due to MD's large minority electorate, it leaves him with little room to maneuver. In the end, high approval ratings/popularity sometimes just isn't enough.

I think a reasonable early prediction would be, at best, Leans R, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggling somewhat early on next year.

[Virginiá]

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

are you joking, because if so lol

He's talking about redistricting. Regardless, I bet Democrats would still have the numbers in the legislature to override Hogan's veto of any congressional map, even an 8-0 D one (which they were silly to not do in 2011).

Even then, it's still not right. Hogan can veto Congressional maps (but not legislative ones), and Democrats could override his veto. Maryland also only holds legislative elections in midterm years, so after 2010 and 2014, their ranks have been depleted and are poised for a strong rebound in 2018. The reason this is relevant is because they can already override Hogan's vetoes, and their ability to do will only be more solid by 2021.

To that effect, I imagine Democrats will get whatever maps they want. Their real risk is from the courts striking them down. A federal panel is already hearing a lawsuit against their map, so there is that.

[Virginiá]

I don't know why they wouldn't just go for a clean 8-0 map if it does get struck down then. Just go full NCGOP. It's fairly easy to make actually, particularly if you have no qualms crossing the Bay.

Granted I'm not too knowledgeable about their last map drawing shenanigans, but I think it was more focused on incumbent protection. Also you're right, if there is anything Republicans have taught us about redistricting, it is that terrible maps can still be enacted anyway and used for a cycle or two (or three, or four... looking at you, Texas...) while the courts drag their feet on it.

[Virginiá]

Sorry, I thought Maryland was a 2/3rd veto override state, not a 3/5ths. Dems will be able to draw whatever maps they want. Hopefully the clean them up from a visual perspective, while also going after Andy Harris. No reason to not go for a 8-0 map.

I imagine they will shoot for an 8-0 map if they think they can pull it off without immediately getting tossed before 2022's elections. There will be a lot of pressure from the national party for state Democrats to maximize seats where ever they control the maps. This, of course, assumes that SCOTUS refuses to address partisan gerrymandering in Gill vs Whitford.

This is what I don't get though, even if you take in partisan and incumbent protection considerations, the sheer disjointedness of the districts is completely unnecessary. I see no logical reason for the current "shapes" ---if you can even call them shapes--- of districts like 2 and 3.

Don't quote me on it, but it may have to do with the degree to which MD Congresscritters were asking for tweaks to their districts. If your main priority is to give all the members of your delegation the exact constituencies they are asking for, the map could get messy in a way that an outsider might find nonsensical.

That's what I recall reading, anyhow.