UK local by-elections, 2024

[Tintrlvr]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

I also suspect that Crewe is prone to feeling ignored by the council. It feels like the sort of place which is not very well served by the big unitary model, especially the way it's been implemented in Cheshire which throws it into an oddly drawn council area dominated by prosperous outer Mancunia.

The Tory candidate was local while the Labour candidate was from Nantwich, which might have contributed.

[Tintrlvr]

"It's always been that way" is probably not a very satisfying answer, but it's true. More generally, small political divisions often lack partisan dynamics, with local issues that are completely divorced from national politics dominating. Orkney is the third-least-populated local government district in Britain (after the City of London and the Isles of Scilly, both also dominated by independents) and just doesn't face the same issues that might be considered relevant even somewhere relatively close by like Inverness or Aberdeen.

You can see this in other places around the world, too. Nunavut and the NWT in Canada are similar.

[Tintrlvr]

You can also look back to the 70s and see just how far the Independent tide has ebbed.

I was going to add something about this, too, but wasn't completely confident in the dates. My understanding is that there was a time when all local politics in Britain outside of London and the other big cities was Labour vs. independents (or before Labour really emerged, just independent dominated), and the Tories and Liberals had almost no local election presence at all. It was Labour running in local elections and winning that led the other parties to start to view local politics as important and worthy of participation. By the 1970s, you can see on this map that the Tories seriously contested in urban areas but rural areas were still predominantly independent-dominated. Of course, most "independents" were de facto Tories (or Liberals, if you go back far enough, and nowadays remnant independent presences tend to side with the LDs over the Tories).

There was also a period where the Tories and Liberals had local allies but didn't run candidates themselves - the Municipal Reform Party for the Tories and the Progressive Party for the Liberals.

[Tintrlvr]

http://opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections.php

according to this there are 42 by elections scheduled for May 9th! Why not hold these with the May 2nd elections?

Only Kilwinning, North Ayrshire has the date next to it so I assume the others haven't been scheduled yet.

And Scotland has no elections, so nothing to schedule alongside. Most of these are probably either in places that likewise have no elections on May 2 so there’s no advantage to scheduling then or became vacant too recently for a May 2 by-election.

[Tintrlvr]

You do know that certain Twitter accounts with Corbynist avatars will be saying that totally seriously?

(one of the most hilarious, which I only stumbled upon recently, is predicting "up to 200 independent left MPs" after the next GE with not just a totally straight face but approaching religious fervour)

"If the swing in Rochdale is repeated across the country..."

[Tintrlvr]

Does nearly 10% for Propel in Cardiff surprise anyone else?

[Tintrlvr]

Quick summary of the changes:

2 LD gain from Con
2 Green gain from Con
2 Con gain from Lab
1 Con gain from LD
1 LD gain from Green

So net 2 LD gains, 1 Green gain, 2 Lab losses, 1 Con loss.

Relevance of each change:

Hampshire CC, Meon Valley - Grn gain from C
- Tories hold a large majority on Hampshire CC since the 2021 local elections. Meon Valley is in the solidly LD-held Winchester DC, although the county council seat also includes a local Green hot-spot, and the by-election was three-cornered. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat, with the LDs second and the Tories falling to third. This is the only Green seat on Hampshire County Council.

Huntingdonshire DC, Great Paxton - LD gain from C
- The Tories lost control of Huntingdonshire DC for the first time in the 2022 local elections. The Tories are still the largest party, but the council is heavily split. The local government is a coalition of the LDs and Independents. This shores up the LD-led coalition.

Leicestershire CC, Burbage - LD gain from C
- The Tories have a large majority on Leicestershire CC after the 2021 local elections. The LDs are the main opposition but lost significant ground in 2021. This seat was close in 2021.

S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
- The Tories narrowly retained control of S Norfolk DC in the 2023 local elections with the LDs and Labour both having substantial local presences. With this by-election loss, the Tories have lost control of the council; it's unclear if a coalition of all opposition parties will be able to take control. This is the first and only Green seat in South Norfolk and looked quite safe for the Tories even in 2023. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat (Labour was a distant second in 2023).

Sutton BC, St Helier W - C gain from Lab
- The LDs have controlled Sutton BC since 1990 but have had falling majorities recently, losing seats in both 2018 and 2022 to the Tories. Labour won their first seats in Sutton since the early 2000s in the 2022 local elections, two seats in another ward and this single seat in a three-seater ward. This ward, which went 1 Lab-2 Con, was a tight three-way battle in 2022 (the third-placed LDs still won about 30% of the vote). In this by-election, the Labour vote collapsed and they fell to a distant third; the LDs came just 8 votes short of the Tories.

Wandsworth BC, W Putney - C gain from Lab
- Labour famously finally won control of Wandsworth BC in the 2022 local elections. This seat was very tight, going 2 Lab-1 Con. The Tories won the by-election on a small swing, and must be happy to still feel in contention in a council they really should have become irrelevant in a long time ago.

Breckland DC, Hermitage - C gain from LD
- Breckland DC has a large Tory majority even after the 2023 local elections. This was the only LD seat on the council. The LDs fell 21 votes short of retaining the seat. The new Tory councillor is a former prominent UKIP figure, Robin Hunter-Clarke.

Torridge DC, Bideford N - LD gain from Grn
- Torridge DC has been led by an independent group since the 2019 local elections; the group lost their majority but continued to govern after the 2023 local elections. The LDs are the largest opposition and made major gains from the Tories in the 2023 local elections. This seat split 1 Green-1 LD-1 Ind at the 2023 local elections, with the Green far ahead of everyone else. The Greens seem to have collapsed without their popular incumbent, falling to third behind the winning LDs and the Labour candidate, who edged the Greens out for second by 2 votes. There were two independent candidates but neither did well, suggesting to me that neither was associated with the governing local independent group.

In short: Only the South Norfolk and Huntingdonshire results really matter much for local government, although the Wandsworth result is slightly meaningful as well in the sense that it shows the Tories are maybe not gone forever there and have potential to come back once they are out of power at Westminster.