More movement
Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
RI 79.9
MD 70.0
MT 68.0
VA 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 20.0
AZ 12.0
NV 5.0
Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY
Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont
GOP House: 22.0%
GOP Senate: 74.9%
Why are MO and VA increasing in the chances of a Democratic victory while the Senate as a whole is increasing in the chances of a Republican retention?
Someone on Tradesports appears to be hedging his bets.
Simple math. the chances of TN & MO have risen at a smaller rate than the TN chances have dropped. 4 have been pretty much in th Dem column, and it came down to Dems winning 2 of the remaining 3, now it looks more likely they will have to win 2 of 2. Even though their chances of winning MO & VA have increased, they must win both to retain the senate, while previously if they lost one of those they still could have gained control of the Senate.
