Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Dan the Roman]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

I was just mentioning that the Conservatives have a history of doing better during the campaign, and with Dion as leader and potential Liberal PM, that probably will not change. Harper at least probably believes this, why else would he call an election when the polls are tied or show him behind?

[2952-0-0]

Because MPs will investigate the Conservative Party In And Out Scandal and kill Harper's political future if he doesn't call an election?

[cinyc]

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

That's precisely why I'm not convinced the writ will be dropped.  Stephane Dion is not very smart waiting until September 9 to meet with Harper.  On September 8, the Liberals get humiliated in the by-elections.  On September 9, Dion offers Harper everything short of his adopted daughter to stop Harper from pulling the plug on Parliament.  He's caved before.  He'll cave again.

[Hash]

From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

[Kevin]

Whatever happens though I still think the Conservatives should win because I just don't see Dion becoming PM. 

[Meeker]

All but one Liberal leader has become PM at some point. Just sayin'.

[2952-0-0]

In every election campaign, the governing party has dropped in the polls.

Just sayin'.

[cinyc]

From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

Every recent by-election has been a humiliation for the Liberals.  What makes you think this by-election will go any differently?

[Hash]

From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

Every recent by-election has been a humiliation for the Liberals.  What makes you think this by-election will go any differently?

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

[cinyc]

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

Let's see - their celebrity candidates won.  But they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat and almost lost Vancouver Quadra, a west-coast Liberal bastion that they held since 1984.

And in the by-election before that, the Liberals lost Outremont - a seat they've held in every Parliament but one since 1935 -  to the NDP, which hadn't won a Quebec riding for 17 years.

[Kevinstat]

Because MPs will investigate the Conservative Party In And Out Scandal and kill Harper's political future if he doesn't call an election?

Does that refer to the whole (alleged) Cadman insurance bribe thing?

[Verily]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

I was just mentioning that the Conservatives have a history of doing better during the campaign, and with Dion as leader and potential Liberal PM, that probably will not change. Harper at least probably believes this, why else would he call an election when the polls are tied or show him behind?

The polls do not show the Conservatives "tied or behind". You could make a reasonable argument for the polls showing a tie, but the only polls showing the Liberals ahead are Nanos (which is basically an unknown but has consistently shown the best Liberal/worst Conservative numbers since they began polling about a year ago) and Decima (notoriously inclined to swing). Two other polls, Ipsos-Reid and Angus Reid, have shown the Conservatives leading by wider margins (although Angus Reid, which had the highest margin, has always given the Conservatives--and NDP--their best numbers of all of the polls). At best for the Liberals they have broken even; more likely, the Conservatives lead by a point or two.

As for Harper, this is as good as it gets. After two and a half years of minority, a totally incompetent Liberal opposition and a badly weakened BQ and Quebec sovereigntist movement, the Conservatives are still at only 32-36%. This is, quite simply, because the Conservatives probably can't break out of this margin except in short-lived bumps that wouldn't last an election campaign. Better to call an election where you're slightly favored than risk falling behind, which is exactly what might happen if this Parliament is allowed to run to expiration. (It might not happen, too, but even if it doesn't, things will be no better for Harper than they are right now, and I think he's realized this.) And, who knows, maybe the Liberals will campaign very poorly and hand the Conservatives an increased lead or even a majority.

[cinyc]

Dion has backed down and agreed to meet with with Harper tomorrow.  Is he caving in or standing up to Harper, forcing him to pull the plug?  We ought to find out tomorrow, in any event.

[minionofmidas]

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

Let's see - their celebrity candidates won.  But they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat and almost lost Vancouver Quadra, a west-coast Liberal bastion that they held since 1984.

And in the by-election before that, the Liberals lost Outremont - a seat they've held in every Parliament but one since 1935 -  to the NDP, which hadn't won a Quebec riding for 17 years.

...and it might very well do so again in September. One of the other seats is considered a Con opportunity IIRC.

[Hash]

Nanos is the new name for SES IIRC.

Angus-Reid is an awful pollster. IIRC, they were the only ones to show the Tories on 40-42%.

[cp]

On September 8, the Liberals get humiliated in the by-elections.

Well the Hill Times seems to disagree:

Conservatives canceling byelections for tactical reasons, say observers
http://thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/september/1/byelections/&c=2

This bears out what some friends of mine in Guelph and Montreal have said. The Conservatives, theoretically very strong on the ground, aren't gaining any traction among voters, particularly in Quebec where the recent arts funding cuts and the environment are most on peoples' minds. That said, a Liberal sweep is unlikely, meaning that whatever good press they could glean from this would be tempered by the usual charges of Dion's weakness, being cash strapped, etc.

As for the relative position of the parties, the Liberals and Tories have been tied, short-lived bumps aside, since 2007. This actually probably indicates the Tories are behind, though. Conservative support is concentrated in places like Alberta, which artificially inflates the national numbers. If the Tories are tied with the Liberals at 33% each, it typically means they're well behind in Ontario and Quebec and would be unlikely to tie the Liberals for seats should an election occur.

Incumbency also tends to inflate their numbers. Until there's an election a lot of people just give the government the benefit of the doubt. This is especially evident in 'leadership polls'. Until January 2006 Stephen Harper polled in the low 20s when it came to 'best leader' or equivalent criteria. Paul Martin was in the mid 50s. After he won in 2006, though, Harper jumped to (surprise, surprise) the mid 50s, while Stephane Dion remains in the teens and low 20s. It's a really misleading way to gauge support of people's voting intentions.

[Hatman 🍁]

fyi, no one expected the fixed election date act to be followed during minority governments...

[Hash]

One of the other seats is considered a Con opportunity IIRC.

Guelph. I have a very hard time seeing the Conservatives gaining a seat in Ontario in the current climate.

[cp]

So do the Tories. They're hoping that a national campaign with all cylinders firing can fight the tide of opinion in Ontario, BC, and Quebec.

[cinyc]

By all accounts, the Harper-Dion meeting didn't go well.   To his credit, Dion didn't cave.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080831/harper_dion_080901/20080901?hub=TopStories
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080831/harper_dion_080901/20080901?hub=TopStories

I guess the ball is in Harper's court.

cp-
I don't think that you can conclude that the Conservatives are "well behind in Ontario" just because national polls are tied.  The GTA offsets Alberta, to some extent.  Some 416 ridings are as anti-Tory as Alberta ridings are anti-Liberal (though the Liberals and NDP tend to split the 416 vote).   Remember - the Conservatives lost Ontario by 5 points in 2006, but still won a minority government.  They obviously need to do slightly better in Ontario to win a majority government, though.  Quebec will be the major battleground.

[2952-0-0]

The big loser in all of this will be the NDP.

Obviously the Liberals will devote much effort toward looting NDP supporters in order to defeat the Dear Leader Kim Jong Stephen.

[cinyc]

CBC is reporting that Harper will ask the Governor General to hold the election on October 14.

[cp]

CBC is reporting that Harper will ask the Governor General to hold the election on October 14.

They've been reporting that for over a week

I don't think that you can conclude that the Conservatives are "well behind in Ontario" just because national polls are tied.  The GTA offsets Alberta, to some extent.  Some 416 ridings are as anti-Tory as Alberta ridings are anti-Liberal (though the Liberals and NDP tend to split the 416 vote).   

Not true. Liberal support in the GTA averages in the low 50s with very few ridings showing more than 60% support for the Liberals. The Tories, by contrast, pull in 60-70% support in most of Alberta's ridings and a good deal more in SK and BC. Whether or not the NDP and Liberals split the anti-Tory vote, the Tories still get artificially inflated in national numbers because of their disproportionately high support in the west.

On another note, a strategic counsel poll just came out. It's not good news

CPC: 37
Libs: 28
NDP: 17
Bloc: 8
Green: 7

On the bright side, SC usually over samples the Conservatives and NDP and in every election campaign the incumbent party loses support. Want more troubleshooting? It shows the Libs at 26% in Quebec to the Conservatives 23%.

[cinyc]

CBC is reporting that Harper will ask the Governor General to hold the election on October 14.

They've been reporting that for over a week

Now they're reporting that he's actually going to go over to see the GG later in the week (September 5-7), not that he just might.

I don't think that you can conclude that the Conservatives are "well behind in Ontario" just because national polls are tied.  The GTA offsets Alberta, to some extent.  Some 416 ridings are as anti-Tory as Alberta ridings are anti-Liberal (though the Liberals and NDP tend to split the 416 vote).   

Not true. Liberal support in the GTA averages in the low 50s with very few ridings showing more than 60% support for the Liberals. The Tories, by contrast, pull in 60-70% support in most of Alberta's ridings and a good deal more in SK and BC. Whether or not the NDP and Liberals split the anti-Tory vote, the Tories still get artificially inflated in national numbers because of their disproportionately high support in the west.

On another note, a strategic counsel poll just came out. It's not good news

CPC: 37
Libs: 28
NDP: 17
Bloc: 8
Green: 7

On the bright side, SC usually over samples the Conservatives and NDP and in every election campaign the incumbent party loses support. Want more troubleshooting? It shows the Libs at 26% in Quebec to the Conservatives 23%.

Not good news for the Liberals, if accurate.  But it contradicts recent Nanos (SES) and Decima polls.

The M.O.E. for the regional subsamples are usually pretty high.  For Quebec, the national polls usually have an M.O.E. of 6-7 points.  These results are more or less a tie.  The Liberals are up about 5 from 2006 and the Conservatives down about 1.5. 

The Bloc must be significantly down in Quebec.  They polled 10.5% nationwide in 2006 (42% in Quebec).  That would fit the trend in other recent polls, which have the Bloc in the 30s.  A significant Bloc loss in Quebec could put the Tories on Liberals on track to win a majority of seats. 

[Cubby]

Canada only has one major left wing party. Neither the Liberals nor the Greens can be characterized as such.

The Liberals support a carbon tax. Not to mention they legalized gay marriage. I have to support them, somewhat. I think on issues alone, I'd be an NDP member. I don't think you realize how strong the aversion to third parties is to (most) Americans. I don't like the Greens, they should be supporting the NDP.

Not that it would happen this time, but could there ever be a Liberal-NDP coalition?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080901.wpoll0901/BNStory/Front/home

Globe & Mail headline says that Harper is on the edge of forming a majority government, according to their latest poll.

Boo