Results in 2004 by Metro Area

[Sbane]

The nine county san francisco bay area vote was 69.2-29.3% with a margin of 1,111,501 votes. If you exclude the bay area from California the margin of votes for Kerry would have been about 120,000. And the state would still have about 44 electoral votes so as you can imagine it would be tighter than Ohio in the PV margin. That just goes to show you how republican southern california is.

[Sbane]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?).   Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it.

Milwaukee and the Twin cities voted republican? That is a bit surprising. LA did not vote republican but they very pretty close( by my standards). You know everyone on here thinks LA and they think stone cold liberalism, but that is not the case. I do believe if you include the IE the pv margin for Kerry becomes something like a 5 point lead. If you compare that to the New York area or the chicago area you will see that they voted at a much higher rate for Kerry. No LA is not as bad as some of those southern cities, but we are somewhere in the middle. Definitely nowhere near the most democratic population center in America.

P.S. Are Weld and elbert counties included in the denver area? If you do and not include boulder you get a slightly pro-bush result. Adding boulder just ruins all the fun for you guys. Also is park county of south park fame considered suburbs? I would guess not. The town the show is based of is not even located in the county if I remember correctly.

[Sbane]

What would be interesting is trying to find metros that voted Republican.

Lots of them did. Beyond nearly every one in the South, places like Phoenix, Cincinnatti, Columbus, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City....

Milwaukee, and the Twin cities should be added. Also Omaha. And of course Dallas, Houston and San Antonio all went GOP. Columbus was about dead even as I recall. Denver needs to be checked out (does it include Boulder?).   Bush 2004 carried Nashville. I checked LA with the most expansive inclusion of counties. No dice. The Dems carried it.

Are you sure about the twin cities? I actually think they voted for Kerry by a pretty comfortable margin. Something like 100,000 votes or so if not more.

[Sbane]

Bush won the Twin City suburbs in 2004, but not the MSA. I was recollecting the burbs when I made my comment I think.

                  Kerry          Bush
Total         912,069     782,047           46.16%
Minnea    -156,214     -41,633   
St. Paul     -99,851     -35,671   
         
                656,004     704,743      51.79%

Yeah that makes sense.. Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one.

[Sbane]

Ya barely. Bush won the burbs by 51.79%, and Minnesota ex the Twin Cities MSA by 51.44%. 


It looks like Bush carried the Milwaukee MSA by about 10,000 votes per a back of the envelop calculation by the way.

Yes I do believe you are right about Milwaukee. Alas las votas de muerte were not enough to turn Milwaukee blue.

[Sbane]

And Virginia Beach should be added as Republican, very Republican.

It's always surprised me why this area is reliably Republican, given its size and location. Or isn't there a high military population?

Minnesota is one of those few places in the country left where the suburbs vote more republican than the countryside. I am sure there are more examples but Minnesota is the most obvious one.

The only other states I can think of are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma, though of course the latter is very Republican everywhere.

One might consider Georgia, North and  South Carolina, Louisiana and Arizona as well, off the top of my head. And oh yes, definitely Mississippi (e.g. Rankin and DeSoto counties) and Indiana (the belt of counties around Marion County, which is co-extensive with the city of Indianapolis these days, after unigov went into effect).

LOL difference between red state and blue state perhaps? I admit I was thinking a bit locally.