Bellwether counties by state

[jimrtex]

CO - Alamosa (1944)

Clinton carried Alamosa in 1996.

Dems have only carried CO in 92 64 48 36 32 16 and 12.

I think the correct answer is Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Larimer (Fort Collins-Loveland) from 1952 (they voted for Dewey in 1948.  La Plata (Durango) was a 3rd county but voted for Kerry in 2000.  These were the only 3 counties (other than the 2 Perot counties) to switch between 1992 and 1996, even though the state switched.

[jimrtex]

Map updated to show election of last contrary vote.

TX - Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Calhoun, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Mills, Brown, Shackleford, Young, Parker, Hunt (1940)

Calhoun voted for Dukakis in 1988.  Shackelford is spelled el rather than le

And it appears that Lampasas and Mills are mixed up.  Mills voted for Clinton in 1992, Carter in 1980, and Nixon in 1960.  Lampasas voted with the state every year since 1940.

This gives us 12 counties since 1940.

Jeff Davis, Kinney, Aransas, Lavaca, Wharton, Jackson, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker, Hunt (1940)

Before then, the only Republican to carry Texas was Hoover in 1928.   Hunt, Kinney, Lavaca, and Wharton were carried by Smith, leaving us 8 counties.

Jeff Davis, Aransas, Jackson, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker  (1928)

Jeff Davis voted for McKinley in 1900 (and every GOP candidate since its first vote in 1888).  Jackson voted for McKinley in 1896, but only because Bryan was on the ballot as a Populist and a Democrat.  In any case Jackson voted for Harrison in 1892.

This leaves us 6 counties that have been bellwether for the past 29 elections.

Aransas, Lampasas, Brown, Shackelford, Young, Parker  (1892)

Shackelford was formed in 1874 from Jack.  It has been a bellwether since 1876.  I don't think Shackelford can really be considered a successor to Jack, since it was in a frontier area where new counties were being organized (Shackelford is a knight's move away from modern Jack).  In any case, Jack voted for Grant in 1872.

Aransas was split off from Refugio in 1871 (the county seat of Refugio had been moved to Rockport (in present Aransas) and the legislature then split the county, with the inland area becoming Refugio with the county seat in Refugio, and the coastal area becoming Aransas with the recently new county seat of Rockport  Refugio voted Democrat in every election since at least 1856.  Refugio was one of the original Texas counties, but my source does not have results for 1852 or 1848.

Brown County was organized in 1858 and voted for Breckinridge in 1860.  It was a frontier area, so it can't be considered a succesor to any county.

Parker County was organized in 1855 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.  It was in a frontier area.

Young County was organized in 1856 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.  It was in a frontier area.  My source has no results for 1872 (and Grant carried Jack, its neighbor to the east)

Lampasas County was organized in 1856 and voted for Buchanan in 1856.

So you have 6 counties that have been bellwether's since their organization.

Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856

A reasonable argument could be made that they have always voted with the state, since Taylor only carried 2 counties in 1848 and Scott carried none in 1852.  On the other hand some of the areas didn't have any voters at all in those early years.

This map shows the party each county voted for the last time they missed.  The 6 bellwether counties are in Yellow.  There are 4 Perot (1992) counties in light green, and two Wallace (1968) counties in dark green.

[jimrtex]

btw jim, it was you that provided that list in the old thread for Texas. So what would the updated list be?

Did I?

I didn't remember.  What I did was take an outline map and color the counties that voted contrary to the state, and compared my list with the one you had provided and checked the differences.  This time, I missed one that I had before, and had got one that I missed before.  And I would be more likely to mix up Lampasas and Mills since I would have looked at an outline map, rather than actually checking.  I've double checked the twelve that date back to 1940, so the only possible error is if I missed some both times.

For elections before 1940, I used 'The Texas Almanac's Political History of Texas' which has tabular data by county for all presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, including primaries.

Texas had only voted GOP once before 1952, and that was for Hoover in 1928.  4 of the 12 voted for Smith.  Two others voted GOP around the turn of the century.  And the other 6 have voted with the state since they were founded (none date back to 1848).  So my list is:


Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856

 
Whether it is all 6, or not just the last 3, I guess depends on your rules.
 
Did you get my changes for Colorado?  It was fairly easy since so few counties tracked the switch from Dem to Rep between 1992 and 1996.

[jimrtex]

AL - Madison, DeKalb, Cleburne, Calhoun, St.Clair, Tuscaloosa, Autauga, Elmore, Pike, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Covington, Escambia, Monroe.

These are 25 the counties that voted for Reagan in 1980, minus Montgomery which switched to Dems since, minus 6 counties carried by Ford in 1976, minus 2 counties carried by Nixon in 1960, and one by Eisenhower in 1956.  Total of 15 (1940).  Since these are Republican-leaning counties, a few may have voted for Hoover in 1928 (who lost by 2.8% statewide).  Otherwise, most may have voted as part of a near Democrat sweep since at least 1900, and perhaps since Reconstruction.

[jimrtex]

KS - Bourbon, Lyon, Ottawa, Saline (1892, edge of Atlas)

[jimrtex]

New Hampshire -
Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham - Rep 2004
Cheshire, Grafton, Merrimack, Strafford - Dem 2000
Coos - Dem 1976.

That leaves Sullivan, which has been a bellwether for the state since at least 1956.

Sullivan missed in 1936, the first election FDR carried the state.

[jimrtex]

Before 1964 Aroostook hadn't voted Democratic in any election that Dave has data for.

But neither had Maine (except 1912)

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And Aroostook, which also went Bull Moose.

[jimrtex]

Mississippi -

That leaves Carroll, Covington, George, Greene, Pearl River, Perry, Stone, Wayne, Webster, bellwethers since at least 1960.

George, Pearl River, and Stone were the only 3 counties carried by Hoover.

Dave doesn't have county maps for 1936 and 1916, but considering the 94% and 92% Dem statewide margins, these were probably statewide sweeps.

Leaving   Carroll, Covington, Greene, Perry, Wayne, Webster since at least 1912.

[jimrtex]

Missouri -

Lincoln - state bellwether since at least 1960

Not surprising since Lincoln is also one of the bellwether counties for the country, and Missouri has not missed missed the winner since 1956 (and had it not switched from Ike to Stevenson then, it would have a streak of 26 from 1904).   Given the Missouri record, it is remarkable that Kerry abandoned the state in 2004.

Lincoln voted for Stevenson in 1956, making its record as a state bellwether one election more than its record as a national bellwether.  Lincoln also voted for Stevenson in 1952, when the state voted for Eisenhower.

Lincoln is on the southern edge of the Dem-leaning Little Dixie area with with just a tad of St.Louis suburban influence to vote with Republican winners.  Nowadays it is becoming exurban St.Louis.  In 1860 and 1960 the county had 14K+ with a 1900 peak just over 18K.  Another 14K was added between 1960 and 1990. and a 3rd 14K between 1990 and 2000.

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Maybe, but not too different from the 1956 result with the exception of one area.

There were 4 counties, 3 in the north and 1 in the Kansas City area that voted Ike -> Stevenson -> Nixon, so were Republican in 1952 and 1960.

Nixon picked up two counties on the edge of the boothill area (reducing the Democrat counties from 6 to 4).

Kennedy picked up 4 counties in the St.Louis area that had voted for Ike both times, including St Louis County and St Charles, and two slightly further afield.

Where the big difference was, was in an area in SC Missouri on the eastern fringe of the Ozarks, where 8 Stevenson counties switched to Nixon.   This area continued to vote Democratic (see 1996, but with the area shifted a bit towards St.Louis.  In 1956, there was a distinct Republican gap between St. Louis and the are in the question.  In 1996 a few more counties on the west had gone solidly Republican, but on the east the area had merged with the St.Louis area).

[jimrtex]

CO - Alamosa (1944)

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The following have voted for the Texas winner since the county's creation.

Shackelford   1876
Aransas        1872 (1856 for Refugio)
Brown           1860
Lampasas     1856
Parker           1856
Young           1856