Winter is Coming (GoT is back)

[Mr. Morden]

Now that R+L=J is official, I’m wondering anew whether the writers gave Sean Bean any clues as to Jon Snow’s origin story when they were filming Season 1.  In this clip for example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEB5t1qRdmY

Between Sean Bean’s acting around 1:10 when Robert brings up Jon’s mother, and his acting around 2:25, when Robert brings up what “Rhaegar did to your sister”, it seems clear that some kind of instruction (from either writers or director) was given to Sean Bean to play it a certain way that isn’t obvious from the dialog alone.  But how much they actually told him…I don’t know.

Sean Bean accidentally said, "well, obviously, he's not my son..." in an interview several years ago and then had to walk it back.  I'm sure he was told, but if he wasn't, he was playing it like he thought it was R+L=J.

A more interesting question would be whether Aiden Gillen knew more than had been revealed, because in the crypt scene with Sansa, Littlefinger seemed to think the assertion that Lyanna was raped was dubious.

In the Littlefinger scene, Aiden Gillen could have simply been told that Lyanna being raped didn't happen, and that he should play it that way, sure.  But that alone seems like a more minor spoiler.  He wouldn't have had to have been told about Jon being her son.

With Ned, it's not just about Rhaegar not raping Lyanna, but he also acts weird when asked about Jon's mother in the same scene, so it gets me to wonder if Sean Bean was straight up told that R+L=J or what.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean, I thought everyone who read the book was like 99% sure about this theory. So I'd imagine lots of the actors could be aware of it.

They could be aware of it, but I doubt they would actually play a scene in a way that casts doubt on Ned being Jon's father unless one of the showrunners straight up told them to play it that way.  I don't think they would alter their performance based on popular fan theories alone.

[Mr. Morden]

You know what's funny? It's actually starting to look like there will be a happy ending, with Dany taking the Iron Throne and Jon vanquishing the White Walkers. Of course I could be wrong and the White Walkers might end up killing everybody and bring about an eternal night, but somehow I doubt it.

I would actually be really surprised if Dany is Queen of Westeros at the end of the story.  She's been on an upward trajectory since Season 1, and she's the Targaryen heir (as far as we know).  Having her win in the end isn't a sufficiently interesting story, IMHO.  My hunch is that she'll either die or (less likely) go off and live somewhere else (presumably in Essos), doing something else with the rest of her life.

[Mr. Morden]

and when did Dany become a "bad guy"?  Ok, maybe she isn't the "bad guy", but she sure did a lot things "bad guy"s do last night.

Like what?  She did far worse things in Meereen, like crucifying the masters, feeding one of the Meereenese nobles (who she admitted might have been innocent) to her dragons as an example to the others, and forcing Hizdahr to marry her.

[Mr. Morden]

A couple of other things about last night's episode:

1) Dany says that, like her, Jon has also lost two brothers.  At the time she's saying that, doesn't most of the world still believe that Bran is also dead?  Meaning that she'd think that he's lost three brothers?

2) If that is really the end of the greyscale storyline, then it's an incredibly dumb subplot.  All it accomplished was getting Jorah separated from Dany's group for about 8-10 episodes, in a way that seemingly had no impact on the larger storyline whatsoever.

I still hope that Sam's newfound greyscale knowledge ultimately ties in with whatever knowledge he's going to harness against the White Walkers.  After all, we've seen Craster's babies get turned into WWs in a way that evokes greyscale turning people into the stone men, almost like an ice counterpart to greyscale's "fire".  They're both like an infection, so I've long thought that the solution to both problems might be related.  But seeing that the cure for greyscale consists of cutting off the scales and applying ointment, I'm now less hopeful on this front than I used to be.

[Mr. Morden]

Unfortunately, it's clear the showrunners have become bored with the series and want to move on to other projects. This easily could've been a ten episode season.

I don't know if I'd put it that way.  First, on the length of the season, while technically it's 7 episodes, most of the episodes this year are a little longer than average.  In fact, Episode 6 is going to be ~70 minutes long, while Episode 8 will be ~80 minutes long.  We're getting the equivalent of about 8 episodes in terms of total run time.  And my understanding is that the shorter season is in large part due to the scale of production being even bigger than it has been previously.  There are more battles and more VFX, and so they are doing the equivalent of producing several big budget feature films within the span of several months.  They are apparently not capable of doing 10 episodes within the span of a year anymore, while delivering the kind of spectacle that they'd like to deliver for these final seasons.

Now even with shorter seasons, they could still have stretched it out into a ninth season, but maybe they just think that for the climax of a show like this, you need to be moving the plot forward at a breakneck speed.  The problem is that even after killing off a third of the characters last year, the cast is still huge, and bigger than it was in Season 1, and so if you don't cut narrative corners and just allow the plot to progress in a natural fashion in the manner of Season 1, then the progression feels slow, because there are too many different epicycles to worry about.  I'm not saying the writers are doing a great job of dealing with this problem, but it is a tough problem to grapple with.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw:

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/hbo-hack-thousands-of-documents-stolen-1202513573/

[Mr. Morden]

IAS, that stream turned into a trench in a split second.

I found this on Reddit:

https://i.redd.it/duwqxescs9ez.jpg

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like production on Season 8 will start even later in the year than production on Season 7 started last year:

http://collider.com/game-of-thrones-season-8-filming-date/#premiere-date

This raises the possibility that Season 8 won't actually be ready for broadcast by next July.  The postproduction might not be done by then.  But if it slips much later than that, then are they really going to put the show up on Sunday nights against football?  I think if they're going to push it into September or later, then you've got to think about switching to a different night of the week.  Alternatively, they hold it back until February 2019, when the football season is over....

[Mr. Morden]

So if White Walkers can kill a dragon so easily (and in fact, it seems like they were waiting for a Dragon to show up this whole time)... then what is the Endgame??? Everyone dies? Tell Arya that Night King is Sansa?

They telegraphed the endgame in this very episode: Someone assassinates the Night King and since he's the Big Bad controlling all the baddies, the White Walker army crumbles without him.  Beric suggested that in this episode, and I'm assuming that that's how it plays out.  There are countless movies where this is how the good guys defeat a seemingly unstoppable sci-fi or fantasy enemy horde, by killing the brain of the enemy forces.

(Your comment about Arya may well be spot on, as she's a trained assassin now.  Heck, maybe she'll take the face of a White Walker in order to get close to the NK.  )

Having said that, I still think there might be some kind of weird twist to all of it, and that the good guys initially set out to assassinate the NK, but then something changes their plans.  Maybe Sam uncovers some info indicating that killing him would actually have terrible consequences, and instead of killing the White Walkers, they come up with a way to "cure" them and turn them back into normal humans(!).

[Mr. Morden]

Do you guys think that Tyrion's "there are other ways to determine succession" talk with Dany is meant to foreshadow some kind of new post-war political arrangement that will emerge at the end of the story, whereby Westeros (or whatever's left of it) ditches the current power structure in favor of some more egalitarian method of choosing leadership?  It came off to me as a clumsy attempt at such foreshadowing.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, a Youtube comment I read had an idea that would have made the plot of this past episode at least slightly less ridiculous:

Have Bran watch Jon's mission from afar, and then, once Jon's crew starts to have problems, Bran wargs one of Dany's dragons, and sends it up north to rescue them.  That way at least you lose the ridiculousness of Gendry's marathon run followed by a raven crossing a continent in a few hours, etc.  Once one of the dragons (under Bran's control) takes off, Dany could even follow it with Drogon, if you need to get her up there as well.

[Mr. Morden]

Do you guys think that Tyrion's "there are other ways to determine succession" talk with Dany is meant to foreshadow some kind of new post-war political arrangement that will emerge at the end of the story, whereby Westeros (or whatever's left of it) ditches the current power structure in favor of some more egalitarian method of choosing leadership?  It came off to me as a clumsy attempt at such foreshadowing.

Or maybe it's meant to make us remember than Daenerys can't have children

When was it first established that Dany can't have children?

[Mr. Morden]

After she gave birth to and lost Rhaego.

I thought that was only established in the books, not the TV show.

[Mr. Morden]

After she gave birth to and lost Rhaego.

I thought that was only established in the books, not the TV show.

It's been mentioned in the past in the show too, even if it wasn't part of the prophecy/curse that blood witch spoke of.

I just don't remember it ever being mentioned in the show until this season.

[Mr. Morden]

Do you guys think that Tyrion's "there are other ways to determine succession" talk with Dany is meant to foreshadow some kind of new post-war political arrangement that will emerge at the end of the story, whereby Westeros (or whatever's left of it) ditches the current power structure in favor of some more egalitarian method of choosing leadership?  It came off to me as a clumsy attempt at such foreshadowing.

Maybe Dany and Jon hookup in Season 8, she gets pregnant but dies in childbirth, Jon's heritage becomes widely known and he becomes King but establishes a democracy.

I think Preston Jacobs gets it right in this video here (just watch for about a minute and a half from the point that I linked to):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM8pFYrrRfk&t=4m21s

Much of the story is about how broken the system is, and it would be unsatisfying if it ends with some other ruler on the Iron Throne who just continues the same cycle.  Are we supposed to be happy if John or Dany are king or queen at the end, but it's still a hereditary monarchy that'll continue for centuries?  That just perpetuates the system, and doesn't "break the wheel".  A parliamentary democracy seems like too big a reach, but some kind of reform in how society is run seems like it's due.

[Mr. Morden]

The whole B=NK theory makes no sense. Bran can't even time travel physically, so how could he be that first dude that got stabbed by the children and turned into a white walker?

He wouldn't be him physically, only mentally.  I guess the idea is that it would be sort of like when he mentally sent the "hold the door" message back in time to Hodor, except this time he'd be sending his entire consciousness.  It'd be a "Being John Malkovich" type scenario, where his mind ends up displacing the mind of the original guy.

[Mr. Morden]

The whole B=NK theory makes no sense. Bran can't even time travel physically, so how could he be that first dude that got stabbed by the children and turned into a white walker?

He wouldn't be him physically, only mentally.  I guess the idea is that it would be sort of like when he mentally sent the "hold the door" message back in time to Hodor, except this time he'd be sending his entire consciousness.  It'd be a "Being John Malkovich" type scenario, where his mind ends up displacing the mind of the original guy.

Well if it's only mentally, then the similarity in appearance to Bran doesn't have any relation to the theory itself and is just a coincidence.

Whether it's the Night King or not, I can definitely imagine Bran's warging ability eventually leading to a scenario where he gets stuck in another body forever.  In fact, maybe if he's not the Night King in the past, he'll end up being the Night King in the future.  He could presumably win the war against the White Walkers right now if he was able to warg into the Night King and take over.

[Mr. Morden]

Narratively, it seems rather unsatisfying if the only way for the White Walkers to pass through the wall was to rely on Team Humanity to go on this dumb mission whose only purpose was to prove that the White Walkers were a threat.  And I'd have the same objections if the "Bran inadvertently de-powers the Wall" theories were correct.  The White Walkers being a threat only because the humans make dumb mistakes doesn't work for me.

Of course, this gets at a problem with Jon's entire goal of uniting the human race against the WWs.  How does he even know that the WWs have a way to get past the Wall?  They haven't managed it for the past few years, so for all he knows, they don't have any way to do so.

So then, let's suppose that they didn't get through the Wall.  What is the plan of Team Humanity then?  Launch a massive pre-emptive strike against them (even though that could backfire, since that could lead to many more deaths, plus the possible loss of the remaining two dragons)?  Or just man the Wall in case of invasion, but otherwise wait and see (for years?  decades?) if the WWs manage to do anything?  How long do they put the war for the Iron Throne on hold while they wait around to see if the WWs do anything?  It's a moot point now that the Wall has come down, but they didn't know that it would come down when they were talking about this.

It just seems like Jon and co. have been taking it as a given that the WWs are very likely to take over the whole continent soon-ish, despite not really having any reason to believe that the Wall wouldn't stop them from doing so.

[Mr. Morden]

It looks increasingly likely that the final season won't air until early 2019:

http://watchersonthewall.com/game-thrones-season-8-filming-schedule-air-date-clues-revealed/

[Mr. Morden]

Narratively, it seems rather unsatisfying if the only way for the White Walkers to pass through the wall was to rely on Team Humanity to go on this dumb mission whose only purpose was to prove that the White Walkers were a threat.  And I'd have the same objections if the "Bran inadvertently de-powers the Wall" theories were correct.  The White Walkers being a threat only because the humans make dumb mistakes doesn't work for me.

Of course, this gets at a problem with Jon's entire goal of uniting the human race against the WWs.  How does he even know that the WWs have a way to get past the Wall?  They haven't managed it for the past few years, so for all he knows, they don't have any way to do so.

So then, let's suppose that they didn't get through the Wall.  What is the plan of Team Humanity then?  Launch a massive pre-emptive strike against them (even though that could backfire, since that could lead to many more deaths, plus the possible loss of the remaining two dragons)?  Or just man the Wall in case of invasion, but otherwise wait and see (for years?  decades?) if the WWs manage to do anything?  How long do they put the war for the Iron Throne on hold while they wait around to see if the WWs do anything?  It's a moot point now that the Wall has come down, but they didn't know that it would come down when they were talking about this.

It just seems like Jon and co. have been taking it as a given that the WWs are very likely to take over the whole continent soon-ish, despite not really having any reason to believe that the Wall wouldn't stop them from doing so.

I appreciate the well-thought analysis, but I'm not sure this is fair.  The Night King is 10,000 years old and has clearly demonstrated a crazy amount of power.  I'd be scared shltless that, SOMEHOW, he was going to find a way through.  Maybe he has the army of the dead build a boat or two and they sail in from the side?  Maybe a World War Z situation arises and the army of the dead make a massive human pyramid to just get one of them inside one of the balcony things?  Also keep in mind that Jon witnessed a fairly dangerous assault on the wall by the Wildlings, so I imagine he just thinks that the Night King could provide it a lot more of a test.  LOL, I don't know, but I'd feel far from safe and content in Westeros knowing an ever-growing army of the dead was just north of a wall, no matter how good of a fortress it was.  I will agree that unless the Night King set a trap for Dany's dragons (I'm on board with this right now), then it is kind of suspect.

A White Walker invasion is definitely something to be worried about.  But what I'm saying is that Jon's whole pitch is rather confusing, because I'm not sure what he's proposing.  Does he actually want to launch a (potentially very bloody or even counterproductive) preemptive strike: Send the dragons plus an army of humans armed with Dragonglass north of the Wall to attack the WWs?  Or is he proposing that they just man the Wall in large numbers, and build up their defenses, in the event that a WW invasion might happen some day?  Because if it's the latter, then might they not be waiting for years or decades or centuries?  How do they know how imminent such an invasion is?  Did they read the script for the finale, and that's how they know that the attack is imminent?  If the attack isn't imminent, then I'm not sure how a Dany-Cersei truce would ever be workable.  Is Dany going to sit on the Wall for the rest of her life?

Of course, it's a moot point now, since the WWs did breach the Wall at the end of this past episode, but the characters had no way of knowing that in advance....unless they read the script leaks themselves.

[Mr. Morden]

My hunch is that Sansa, Arya, and Bran all live (though Bran wouldn't necessarily still be Bran).  I guess Sam and Gilly live as well.  Beyond that, though, everyone has a reasonably high chance of dying, IMHO.  I don't think either Jon or Dany will be king or queen of anywhere in Westeros though.  There's a reasonably high chance of one or both dying (probably more likely Dany than Jon), but if they live, something will happen to cause them to choose to give up power.

I guess there are some other secondary and tertiary characters who are also very likely to live.  E.g., I doubt Missandei will die, just because she's not a fighter and not important enough for someone to assassinate.

[Mr. Morden]

The "who dies" question also depends on whether there's any Babylon 5-esque flashforward at the end.  What if the Epilogue is 20 years in the future, or 100 years, or 500 years?  All of them will die eventually, unless they become White Walkers and get supernaturally long lifespans.

[Mr. Morden]

Riverlands-Robert Arryn
Stormlands-nobody, Gendry at the end of next season
Dorne-nobody I guess....or some Lord from one of the more important secondary houses...lets say, Edric Dayne

There are a couple more things here that are kind of dumb re: the show's handling of those kingdoms:

1) Why is it that when Yara's fleet is sunk by Euron and the Martells are captured, Dany says that she's "lost Dorne"?  Wouldn't there still be someone left in charge in Dorne to take over, and why wouldn't they continue to back Dany?

2) Why on Earth were no representatives from these kingdoms (Dorne, Riverlands, Stormlands, Reach, the Vale) invited to the big summit in the finale?  Sansa gets invited and sends Brienne, but her invitation makes no sense, since Jon is already there to represent the North.  Yet no one from the aforementioned kingdoms is invited to see a zombie for themselves?  It seems nonsensical.

[Mr. Morden]

There are various minor characters who are still alive but who could, conceivably, not be shown again, depending on what the endgame focuses on.  What do you think is the probability that we'll ever again see the following characters?:

1) Daario
2) Meera Reed
3) Howland Reed (have still only seen him in a flashback)
4) Robin Arryn
5) Edmure Tully
6) Gendry
7) Dolorous Edd
8 ) Sam's mother
9) Hot Pie
10) Nymeria