Put a Rating on the U.S. Senate for 2016 - Summer

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt D, simply because there are now many races where Republicans have an incredibly tenuous advantage (OH, PA, FL, AZ, NC, IN, and MO.) It's more likely than not that Democrats will manage to flip at least one of those seats.

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt D, simply because there are now many races where Republicans have an incredibly tenuous advantage (OH, PA, FL, AZ, NC, IN, and MO.) It's more likely than not that Democrats will manage to flip at least one of those seats.

Then why does your prediction show the Republicans holding the Senate?

My prediction is based on how things look right now. It's all I can do right now, since I can't predict the future, or guess which way which races will move. Why does your prediction have Kirk winning, while you consider the race "Lean D"?

[Xing]

Oh, no doubt the GOP has a high floor in NH, but their ceiling is also below 50% (Scott Brown 2014). The race will be within 5 points for sure, and my guess is that Climbing Maggie will win by 3 in the end, maybe even 2.  Ayotte would have won in ANY other somewhat competitive state, even Maine.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2010

Ayotte's a woman, you see.