MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Pandaguineapig]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Mr. Trump please stop, I'm tired of all this winning!

Please tell me what this has to do with President Trump. At all.

I'm joking lol, but this race is probably Likely R right now

[The Other Castro]

I have a post-AHCA vote Google poll about to finish up, I'll post it when it's ready.

[swf541]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Congratulations to Pianoforte or the RNCC are due for running a very good research operation. They've established a narrative, made consistent drops, and none of it has reflected poorly on the candidate.

If his son is using it I'm not seeing the issue here?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Congratulations to Pianoforte or the RNCC are due for running a very good research operation. They've established a narrative, made consistent drops, and none of it has reflected poorly on the candidate.

If his son is using it I'm not seeing the issue here?

Doesn't matter - 'The wife of Caesar must be above reproach," and all that.

This guy has such confusing finances that it's really easy to portray him as either an incompetent or a tax dodger.

[Maxwell]

lol watch Quist win anyways. I mean the margin in this race is getting closer, not further away.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

lol watch Quist win anyways. I mean the margin in this race is getting closer, not further away.

I hope so! I'm expecting an email back on a venue for GOTV phonebanks in a couple days.

[This account no longer in use.]

RIP Quist, R Hold :/

[Jeppe]

Amanda Curtis would've ran a better campaign than this.

[MT Treasurer]

Amanda Curtis would've ran a better campaign than this.

Yeah, I wish she would have won the Democratic nomination. She'd probably have been my favorite Democrat in Congress and the GE campaign would have been more entertaining as well, LOL.

[Shadows]

Amanda Curtis would've ran a better campaign than this.

Yeah, I wish she would have won the Democratic nomination. She'd probably have been my favorite Democrat in Congress and the GE campaign would have been more entertaining as well, LOL.

Isn't she more left leaning than even Quist? They'd probably call her a socialist ?

[Heisenberg]

Amanda Curtis would've ran a better campaign than this.

Yeah, I wish she would have won the Democratic nomination. She'd probably have been my favorite Democrat in Congress and the GE campaign would have been more entertaining as well, LOL.

Isn't she more left leaning than even Quist? They'd probably call her a socialist ?

Well, Quist positioned himself at the convention as the more left-leaning candidate, IIRC.

Still, glad Curtis lost the nomination, she is so young she'd be there forever.

[The Other Castro]

Thank you cinyc for the help again in weighting these numbers. Here is my poll of the MT-AL Special Election taken from 5/8-5/9. The results below have been weighted for age, sex, and region, and non-voters have been removed. Result: Quist +5

Montanans will go to the polls on May 25 to vote for a new U.S. Congressman. If this special election were held today, who would you vote for?

Rob Quist (Democrat) - 48%
Greg Gianforte (Republican) - 43%
Mark Wicks (Libertarian) - 8%

Again, we see a major regional gap as in the weighted results, it's Quist +29 in the West and Gianforte +29 in the East.

241/339 respondents selected a candidate.  

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=fotq254zv734n2hrx76hgxtbjm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L6mfiNqEPPu3slmyCt2mQc6upLItAMp701k9CjaYct0/edit?usp=sharing

[Brittain33]

What's the track record on these Google polls?

[cinyc]

What's the track record on these Google polls?

Not so good.  They've also been all over the place in this race, from Quist +17 (weighted) to Gianforte +10 (weighted).  Nevertheless, I'm probably going to do a final poll in the week before the election day.

Castro's poll is Quist +4 when weighted by just age and sex, like we've been doing.  I have been experimenting with also weighting by region, which ups it to Quist +5 because Eastern Montana was slightly overrepresented in the sample.  

As Castro said, the east-west divide is there, but it's almost so large as to be unbeliveable.  There also was a significant gender gap (women more pro-Quist than men) and age gap (65+s were pro-Gianforte, with many younger groups pro-Quist).

You can see this all at the linked spreadsheet.  Weighted Crosstabs are available in the 3 Factor Iterative Weight tab.  Unweighted crosstabs are in the Complete Responses tab.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, these polls are fun, but there is no way the East-West gap will be that large or that Wicks will get 8% of the vote.

[Shadows]

People have been exaggerating how bad a campaign Quist has run. This is still winnable & a lean R race. Greg is possibly ahead by 5/6% odd or maybe less.

A very high turnout in election day like Kansas which had huge democratic turnout will make Quist the winner !

[Figueira]

I don't see how the rental thing is a campaign-ending scandal.

[Xing]

Yeah, I think people are assuming that these "scandals" have much more impact than they actually do. Pianoforte is favored, but I wouldn't count Quist out yet.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

JW why does everyone keep calling him "Pianoforte"

[cinyc]

JW why does everyone keep calling him "Pianoforte"

Pianoforte is a real word.  It is another word for piano.  Someone must have originally posted Pianoforte as a result of an auto-correct of Gianforte's last name.  And since then, it's caught on as a nickname for Gianforte.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Conventional wisdom has Pianoforte winning. My gut says Quist.

[Dr. Arch]

Conventional wisdom has Pianoforte winning. My gut says Quist.

Especially with Russiagate gaining steam.

[publicunofficial]

I don't see how the rental thing is a campaign-ending scandal.

He let his son live in a refurbished barn that was classified as a barn and not an apartment! This is the kind of stuff that sinks campaigns!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't see how the rental thing is a campaign-ending scandal.

He let his son live in a refurbished barn that was classified as a barn and not an apartment! This is the kind of stuff that sinks campaigns!

This should get the sympathy of everyone who didn't shut the door and was asked: "Do you live in a barn?" 

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Yeah, I think people are assuming that these "scandals" have much more impact than they actually do. Pianoforte is favored, but I wouldn't count Quist out yet.

I've been saying this for several weeks now, but people here keep overreacting to these "breaking stories" ("OMG Russiagate will sink Pianoforte!!!!11") and random polls ("Emerson sez Gianforte +15? It's over!!1" - "Oh wait, Google poll shows him up 5? Likely D, then!!!1!1"). Still, Quist could have run a better campaign.

I don't think any particular scandal has sunk Quist. But Pianoforte's campaign has done a very good job of keeping up a constant drip, drip, drip of small bad things that build to a consistent narrative.