Republicans and New England House Seats

[minionofmidas]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

They have some legal limits to what they can do, but within those limits they're fairly well gerrymandered right now. They only need to undo that to drastically reduce the GOP's chances in the 5th.

Considerable parts of Bass' district is headed Vermont way. It's exceedingly unlikely that it can ever be a safe GOP seat again, though if 2012 turns out favorable and/or he gets a weak opponent, he certainly could hang on. Thus the most plausible answers are 0 and 1. I went with 1.

[minionofmidas]

Bass is not surviving. I expect Guinta to hold on.

I wonder if Lamontagne can primary Bass from the right. He'd actually be a stronger candidate than Bass too.

Isn't he in the other district? Ayotte does live in the second, as did Judd Gregg before her.

Not sure but I don't think moving to the other district matters. Regionalism isn't rampant in NH.

'Specially as the district map doesn't very well reflect the main cleavages.

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

[minionofmidas]

The CT GOP can't decide whether it wants to appeal to the socially conservative working class whites or the wealthy social liberals that make up places like CT-04. It's increasingly difficult to do both.

Aren't Democrats faced with the same question?

No, because they have the minorities and the unions.

That just means they always win if both parties are roughly equally successful at attracting the groups described above, though.