So he's calling out a guy for making his error bars too narrow??
Silver seems to have a fair point. At least in 2010, Wang apparently structured his model in a way that almost completely ruled out results that actually happened, and it wasn't even a partisan bias on Wang's part from what I can tell, since he overestimated Angle, a Republican, while underestimating the GOP's chances in the House in the same year.
For what it's worth, Wang's rebuttal is:
And his riposte is that he predicted all the 2012 Senate races accurately, including North Dakota.:
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/senate-prediction-final-election-eve/Personally I'm sympathetic to the argument we can improve on models of merely polling averages but Silver's state fundamentals model strikes me as absurdly complex (10 parameters?!) and very susceptible to overfitting. This comment on his latest blog entry explains it very well:
