Status of Virginia primary ballot

[memphis]

Something is fishy. I can't see Gingrich not getting this done.

[Joe Republic]

Wait, I knew about the others already, but when was Gingrich kicked off the ballot?

[Franzl]

I hope you signed like any good American would have.

Of course.  I dislike Paul, but not as much as I like democracy; plus, I want the opportunity to vote against him.

Are you of voting age? (Or is that not necessary to sign a petition for some reason?)
Shows how long I've spent here...you're this eternal 15-16 year old in my imagination at least

[Eraserhead]

Gingrich made it. So a three man race. Interesting Bachmann doesn't even try...yet claims she's in it to win it. Come on -_-

Gingrich did not make it.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-24/virginia-gop-primary/52202816/1

[Eraserhead]

Wait, I knew about the others already, but when was Gingrich kicked off the ballot?

It was announced a few hours ago apparently.

BREAKING NEWS: We can now project that Willard Romney will win the Virginia primary (even though it was one of Ron Paul's strongest states).

This is very distressing.

[Tender Branson]

EPIC fail by all the candidates except Romney/Paul !

Ok, 10.000 signatures is a lot - but there will be 500.000 people voting in the VA primary and Gingrich had about 30% support in the latest VA Quinnipiac poll. That's about 150.000 supporters who are voting in a primary that's less than 3 months away ! And he cannot even get 10.000 of them ? Pretty poor organization by the Newt.

[© tweed]

I hope you signed like any good American would have.

I dislike Paul, but not as much as I like democracy;

if there were any one quote to summarize ben's posting history.

[Minnesota Mike]

With only 2 candidates on the ballot this makes Virginia a Winner Take All delegate state (by Congressional District and Statewide) since any candidate who gets 50%+ of the vote gets all the delegates(otherwise it is proportional). Should be an easy 46 delegates for Romney.

[greenforest32]

Oh come on, this is pathetic.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh come on, this is pathetic.

But hardly surprising.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Why does anyone care? Virginia is sufficiently late in the cycle that the nomination will be pretty much over by the time it comes around. The only candidate who could be effected by this with any chance of surviving that long would be Gingrich, and unless he wins Iowa he's about as likely to win the nomination as Rick Santorum.

[Mr. Morden]

Why does anyone care? Virginia is sufficiently late in the cycle that the nomination will be pretty much over by the time it comes around.

It's on Super Tuesday.  Will the nomination already be decided by then?  Maybe, maybe not.  Too early to tell.

[Zarn]

In a state with millions of people and with 5-6 months to get it done, neither Perry or Gingrich have any excuse. The other three are pathetic for not even trying. In 2008, Virginia was not a problem. This is not Virginia's fault.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Why does anyone care? Virginia is sufficiently late in the cycle that the nomination will be pretty much over by the time it comes around.

It's on Super Tuesday.  Will the nomination already be decided by then?  Maybe, maybe not.  Too early to tell.

March 6 Primary/Caucus list

*Alaska District Conventions
*Idaho County Caucuses
*North Dakota Caucus
*Tennessee Primary
*Virginia Primary
*Vermont Primary
*Georgia Primary (tentative date)
*Massachusetts Primary (tentative date)
*Ohio Primary (tentative date)
*Oklahoma Primary (tentative date)

[California8429]

Both Perry and Gingrich submitted over 11,000 signatures. How many total did Paul and Romney submit?

[Zarn]

Both Perry and Gingrich submitted over 11,000 signatures. How many total did Paul and Romney submit?

More than that, apparently... it looks like a lot of the signatures of Perry and Gingrich were discounted. That's why Romney and Paul were not satisfied until they were well over the mark.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Why does anyone care? Virginia is sufficiently late in the cycle that the nomination will be pretty much over by the time it comes around.

It's on Super Tuesday.  Will the nomination already be decided by then?  Maybe, maybe not.  Too early to tell.

Are you sure? I thought it was a bit later.

Anyhow, even assuming it is, I'm pretty sure the nomination will be basically decided by Super Tuesday. Look at it this way; there are three candidates, and each has one "bonus" and one "fatal flaw". We have:

Romney: Considered "electable", only has a couple of skeletons left in his closet, kind of considered the "generic Republican" at this point, but fairly unlikeable, boring, and lacks dedicated support.

Paul: Considered "consistent", has even less skeletons left than Romney (in terms of personal flaws, the only major one would be those newsletters and they've been coming out for a while and thus we'll see the effect of those in Iowa), and has views that can attract a base that extends from anti-war/pro-drug legalization Democrats to evangelical Republicans. However, he's viewed as "kooky", has some views that alienate part of the Republican base, and is going to be hammered on those by the media repeatedly over the campaign.

Gingrich: Considered "likeable", has many skeletons that have already been brought up but could still serve as a bastion for those who find Romney to be too moderate and Paul too crazy. He's currently still viewed as the "main opposition" to Romney as Paul's national support, while rising, isn't large enough yet to count (and won't unless he wins Iowa). Thus, he has a perceived legitimacy amongst the "anyone but Romney" crowd. However, unlike the above two, he has no organized campaign structure to speak of, nor anything but a limited grassroots support base. Thus, he's running entirely off his own charisma, media coverage, and perceived legitimacy, making a victory in Iowa to keep the momentum going almost essential.


---

Now, here's how I see the election could go:

-Paul could win Iowa, Romney could win New Hampshire. At this point, Gingrich is probably the most suited candidate to the state, but Romney and Paul would both have shots at it with Gingrich lacking organization and momentum. The winner of SC among the first two would have a distinct advantage going into Super Tuesday, while if Gingrich won it it would make the primary messy but probably not messy enough for Virginia to matter (It would probably go to Romney if Paul didn't get a majority, or Paul if he did)

-Paul could win Iowa AND New Hampshire. This would almost certainly cripple Romney's campaign and legitimacy, and is the second best scenario for Gingrich as he could regain some momentum as the anti-Paul and win South Carolina and Florida. This is the single situation I can see in which Virginia might matter, as a protracted Paul-Gingrich campaign would lean to Paul, especially if Virginia was automatically his.

-Gingrich could win Iowa and then South Carolina. This would probably sink Paul (unless we entered a Bizzaro-world in which Paul wins New Hampshire in between, which would be one of the strangest campaigns in history), and I don't see Romney beating out Gingrich for the supporters of the four candidates going for the "crazy evangelical vote", so it would probably lead to a quick Gingrich nomination, making Virginia irrelevant.

-Romney could win Iowa, which would seal the deal for him and make him a shoe-in for the nomination, leading to an extremely boring nomination process.

[J. J.]

-Romney could win Iowa, which would seal the deal for him and make him a shoe-in for the nomination, leading to an extremely boring nomination process.

I think Romney will need to win a southern primary, SC being the most likely, to shut down the process, even if he should win in Iowa.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

-Romney could win Iowa, which would seal the deal for him and make him a shoe-in for the nomination, leading to an extremely boring nomination process.

I think Romney will need to win a southern primary, SC being the most likely, to shut down the process, even if he should win in Iowa.

I don't see him losing South Carolina. No other candidate besides Paul has the organization to duke it out with Romney (and Paul would lack the momentum to win a state that isn't that favourable to him after losing Iowa). Newt could conceivably win it if he came close in Iowa, but I doubt it.

[Mr. Morden]

Why does anyone care? Virginia is sufficiently late in the cycle that the nomination will be pretty much over by the time it comes around.

It's on Super Tuesday.  Will the nomination already be decided by then?  Maybe, maybe not.  Too early to tell.

Are you sure? I thought it was a bit later.

Of course I'm sure.  I maintain a thread that's completely devoted to keeping track of the primary calendar. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trying to discern how long the primary season is going to last before any of the voting has taken place is usually a pretty hopeless task.  2004 and 2008 are pretty good examples of that.

Also, while it's clear that the early states are pretty important, there is an unprecedentedly long gap in the primary calendar this year between the first month of contests and Super Tuesday.  There's a three week gap with no primaries in February.  Unclear how that's going to play out, but it's entirely possible that any early state momentum will have dissipated by the time of Super Tuesday.  Again, let's just wait and see how it plays out before jumping to any conclusions.

[Peeperkorn]

Gingrich made it. So a three man race. I

[Pingvin]

Gingrich made it. So a three man race. I

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Are you of voting age? (Or is that not necessary to sign a petition for some reason?)
Shows how long I've spent here...you're this eternal 15-16 year old in my imagination at least

I am indeed of voting age

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Both Perry and Gingrich submitted over 11,000 signatures. How many total did Paul and Romney submit?

According to Ballot Access News, Romney submitted 16,026, while Paul submitted 14,361.

[tmthforu94]

The Romney campaign has made ballot access a top priority ever since the beginning of the summer. I can't remember the exact numbers, but our goal in Indiana was well above the requirement.