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[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

Latinos and latinas
College Campusers will mostly likely vote for joe or neither.

For a federal charge, I don't see an obvious reason why such a plea deal would be illegal or unconstitutional, but I'm a little dubious that this could be done with state charges.  But in any case, (a) Trump would never accept the acknowledgement of guilt that a plea deal would require, and (b) the Biden administration would never offer such a deal because it would foster the narrative that the prosecutions were purely political.

Exactly this. What more, it would set a terrible precedent that one can be a just awful criminal before, after, and during one's term in office, and you'll get off with a slap on the wrist and restrictions on being back in office as your punishment. Not exactly good for the rule of law.

Russian telegram: "Today, the city of Kharkov is within reach of all types of artillery of the Russian Armed Forces."

https://t.me/condottieros/3626

Per 2020 exit polls:
College White Women: Biden-54, Trump-45 -> Biden+9
Latino men: Biden-59, Trump-36->Biden+23

Will be interesting to see which group votes further right this year.

snip

Congratulations you just broke the forum interface again!

They did not think Trump’s EC advantage would be bigger. I can’t recall a single person thinking Biden would be likely to lose if he won by 4. Most had it staying the same or really believed that Biden had made disproportionate gains in the Rust Belt as an Old White Guy and it would contract.

This isn’t what I recall being the case, but perhaps we frequented different communities around that time.

I guess I need to ramp up my donations. Charleston county is slacking this time

Chris Heaton-Harris is standing down at the next election. Held a succession of junior ministerial posts, before becoming Johnson’s final Chief Whip in early 2022. Sent to the Northern Ireland Office by Truss, where he’s been ever since. Fair number of missteps in his time, but his low-key (some would say boring, I’m in no place to judge) style seems to have largely shielded him.

His Daventry constituency has been Conservative since its 1974 creation, with a 26k majority in 2019. Even taking current polling and boundary changes into consideration, it’s likely to be a fairly safe bet for the party this year. I assume we’ll see the usual suspects decamp in the next couple of weeks.

I'm guessing this includes data from the 2020 primary, since Biden's biggest drop offs are in his home state and in states with competitive primaries in 2020. New Hampshire is the exception, and that was a state where Biden was not competitive in the primary.

Maybe NV 1 but probably none