WV-PPP (2018 SEN): Manchin leads McKinley by 10

[Heisenberg]

Manchin will win this by about 5 points, maybe more.

Doubt it.  If he wins it will be by less than 5 points.

[BuckeyeNut]

In terms of the Manchin race:

- McKinley is almost 70. He didn't run for Gov in 2016, I doubt he runs for Senate in 2018.
- More likely candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-03) and/or WV AG Patrick Morrissey.
- I've heard that Morrissey is eyeing this race, so I can see Jenkins just running for re-election while Morrissey guns for Manchin.

I think Alex Mooney stays in the House a few more terms (and He'll increase his margin of victory by a decent amount each time). Maybe in a few cycles he'll run for Sen or Gov, but not now. He's also facing primary challengers this go around, so we'll see how he fares in their primaries on May 10th (he should win easily, but I want to see if it's by a underwhelming margin or not).

I think Manchin will struggle in a 2018 senate campaign. He'll start off with moderate to strong leads between 7%-10%, and it'll slowly become competitive.

This seems well reasoned, but do remember WV is likely to lose a CD next census.

[Heisenberg]

In terms of the Manchin race:

- McKinley is almost 70. He didn't run for Gov in 2016, I doubt he runs for Senate in 2018.
- More likely candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-03) and/or WV AG Patrick Morrissey.
- I've heard that Morrissey is eyeing this race, so I can see Jenkins just running for re-election while Morrissey guns for Manchin.

I think Alex Mooney stays in the House a few more terms (and He'll increase his margin of victory by a decent amount each time). Maybe in a few cycles he'll run for Sen or Gov, but not now. He's also facing primary challengers this go around, so we'll see how he fares in their primaries on May 10th (he should win easily, but I want to see if it's by a underwhelming margin or not).

I think Manchin will struggle in a 2018 senate campaign. He'll start off with moderate to strong leads between 7%-10%, and it'll slowly become competitive.

This seems well reasoned, but do remember WV is likely to lose a CD next census.

That's right.  My early guess is that WV-01 (McKinley's District) will take in the eastern part of Monney's district, while Jenkins takes in the western part of Mooney's district (and Mooneys number), making McKinley's district WV-01 and Jenkins's district WV-02.  Mooney, being in the "middle" district appears most in trouble.  Perhaps, this is how things go, more or less:
2016:  Cole wins the Governorship
2018:  Morrisey wins the Class 1 Senate seat
2020:  Moore-Capito wins reelection to the Class 2 Senate seat
2022:  McKinley retires at the age of 75.  West Virginia loses a seat in the House.  Mooney runs for the redrawn WV-01, consisting of the northern half and eastern panhandle, while Jenkins's district is renumbered WV-02, and takes in the western half of Mooney's old district.
Edit: Meant to say western half of Mooney's district, not eastern.

[SATW]

Totally forgot that WV is expected to lost a seat. In that case, things do get more complicated for Mooney. If McKinley retires, there'll be a tough competition for the newly drawn WV-01 (where he will likely wind up due to his home being in Eastern Panhandle).

McKinley's son, David Jr,  would be a candidate to watch if McKinley retires closer to the census. However, I think he needs to run for lower office before even thinking about congress.

Amanda Pasdon, who recently resigned from the House of Delegates due to health reasons, was always floated as a potential congressional candidate. I think she'll return to politics before 2022.

Of course, this will all depend on what the boundaries look like.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

If there is any Dem out of the 2018 red state Dem bunch that can survive, it is Manchin. He has been a loud, consistent critic of the far-left and even the moderate left in his own party, and as such, there is no doubt where he stands. A Republican will have a hard time painting him as too liberal or too cozy with Bernie and Hillary.

If he survived in 2010, why would he start out favored to lose in 2018? Did he have a bad 2010 opponent?

[Heisenberg]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

If there is any Dem out of the 2018 red state Dem bunch that can survive, it is Manchin. He has been a loud, consistent critic of the far-left and even the moderate left in his own party, and as such, there is no doubt where he stands. A Republican will have a hard time painting him as too liberal or too cozy with Bernie and Hillary.

If he survived in 2010, why would he start out favored to lose in 2018? Did he have a bad 2010 opponent?

He won a special election as a sitting governor, and the GOP only up a perennial candidate as token opposition.

[MT Treasurer]

The most likely red state Senator to survive is Heitkamp IMO. Tester makes it somewhat close. The other three (especially McCaskill) will need a miracle to survive if Clinton is president.

[Heisenberg]

The most likely red state Senator to survive is Heitkamp IMO. Tester makes it somewhat close. The other three (especially McCaskill) will need a miracle to survive if Clinton is president.

I think Tester can be taken down.  He won in 2006 (a big Democratic wave) against the late Conrad Burns (RIP) who was caught up in a scandal.  He narrowly edged past Denny Rehberg in 2012, boosted by presidential turnout and one of those damn Libertarian spoilers.  I doubt he'll be as lucky this time.  And Heitkamp barely won, also in 2012, with Presidential turnout levels against a deeply flawed, unpopular candidate.  In Senate races, candidates can NOT run from their party.  When you vote for a Senate candidate, you are implicitly voting for that party's agenda.  All 5 "Romney-State Democrats" (IN, MO, WV, ND, MT) are at least somewhat vulnerable to good Republican candidates.

[IceSpear]

Leading years in advance of the election worked out great for Mark Pryor.

Manchin will either retire or get Blanched. You heard it here first.

Also, even this poll isn't great for him. He's not popular at all, which you're going to need to be to survive in a state so heavily against your party. His "lead" is likely more a function of name recognition than anything else. He will see the writing on the wall and retire.

If there is any Dem out of the 2018 red state Dem bunch that can survive, it is Manchin. He has been a loud, consistent critic of the far-left and even the moderate left in his own party, and as such, there is no doubt where he stands. A Republican will have a hard time painting him as too liberal or too cozy with Bernie and Hillary.

If he survived in 2010, why would he start out favored to lose in 2018? Did he have a bad 2010 opponent?

His opponent in 2010 and 2012 was John Raese, a godawful perennial candidate and a complete joke. The fact that it was ever close against Manchin, who at the time was an extremely popular governor, just shows how powerful the Republican tidal wave in WV is.

Take Nick Rahall as an example. He was in the House for decades and had a reputation as a critic of the left and a friend of coal. He won fairly comfortably in 2010/2012. He then got crushed by double digits in 2014. A moderate reputation is not going to save Manchin, the tide is too strong. Just look at his mediocre approval rating even before a single negative ad was run against him. He will get Blanched or retire.

[Kingpoleon]

Mooney only won by four points in 2014 in a R+11 ticket, but third parties(a Libertarian and former Republican "independent," IIRC) got almost ten percent of the vote. I think he'll win by at least ten points this year.

[Heisenberg]

Mooney only won by four points in 2014 in a R+11 ticket, but third parties(a Libertarian and former Republican "independent," IIRC) got almost ten percent of the vote. I think he'll win by at least ten points this year.

This.  Weak/no third party candidates will give Mooney a larger margin of victory this year.  Maybe Trump can also help him win by a bigger margin (since this is WV).

[SATW]

No question about it, Mooney will do better in 2016 then 2014.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The most likely red state Senator to survive is Heitkamp IMO. Tester makes it somewhat close. The other three (especially McCaskill) will need a miracle to survive if Clinton is president.

McCaskill is probably toast regardless. She's just given her opponents too many videotaped extreme statements and gaffes. Unless another scumbag like Akin gets nominated, of course.

In order to survive, these other red-staters need to continuously vote against their party line from time to time, not just try to do it when the election is near. Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly have done OK at this, and Manchin has done well. All could survive, but all will of course have to deal with the unpopularity of their party locally.