Tender's 2014 VAP/VEP turnout chart, based on the latest Census Bureau data

[Tender Branson]

With the Mid-2014 state population and 18+ population out from the Census Bureau, I decided to create a handy Excel chart once again for 2014 turnout. The chart below is the 1st part (Calculating the overall November 1, 2014 population by state, the VAP (voting-age population) and the VEP (voting-eligible population):

(right-click for huge version)



Note: I do not include any felons who are unable to vote. Why ? Because felon-disenfranchisement varies from state to state, the numbers are old and there's the possibility that many felons are non-citizens, which would skew the whole table.

Also, overseas American citizens are not included (because the Dept. of State estimate of 7.6 million overseas is very vague and it's not broken down by state).

I prefer a uniform set of data for each state.

...

My next step is to compile official turnout data from each state's Secretary of State website.

[Tender Branson]

The important columns for 2014 are the blue ones, btw.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The chart is sorted by "Nov. 1, 2014 POP/VEP percenatage" (blue column on the right).

It shows which states have the highest to lowest eligible voters as a percentage of their overall population.

For example in Maine, Vermont and West Virginia, ca. 79% of the total population were eligible to vote on November 1, 2014.

In California and Texas, just around 64% were eligible to vote.

Understandable, since ME/VT/WV have rather old populations and hardly any immigrants.

CA/TX/ID/UT for example have high birth rates and therefore a big percentage under the age of 18 and many immigrants who can't vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does the Census Bureau report VAP data by county as well? I've been trying to look for this data for a long time...

[Tender Branson]

Does the Census Bureau report VAP data by county as well? I've been trying to look for this data for a long time...

Yes, but only for Mid-2013.

So, if you want to use them for Nov. 2014 purposes, the data is already quite outdated.

2014 data is only available for states.

2014 county data will be released at some point next year.

[Tender Branson]

Does the Census Bureau report VAP data by county as well? I've been trying to look for this data for a long time...

You can use their county data for the 2012 election though.

Has anyone ever made a US map with county turnout in a presidential election based on VAP or VEP ?

The Census Bureau not only provides 2013 county data for VAP, but also for VEP (which would be even cooler on a map, because it adjusts for non-citizens who are not allowed to vote).

That would be a ton of work though ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, if they have it for previous years (such as 2012, 2008 and beyond) I'd be very interested in working on that already.

[Tender Branson]

Well, if they have it for previous years (such as 2012, 2008 and beyond) I'd be very interested in working on that already.

Well, if you really want to do that you need to open the "FactFinder" here:

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

Where it says "topic or table name" you need to type in "B05003" and choose the first option that shows up (B05003: SEX BY AGE BY CITIZENSHIP STATUS).

Then click on "go".

Then click on "geographies" on the left side.

Go to "select a geographic type".

Select "County 050" and then select a state below.

Click on "All counties within ... state".

Click "add to your selections".

Close the geography selection tool by clicking at the upper right (x).

Then click on one of the blue links with "SEX BY AGE BY NATIVITY AND CITIZENSHIP STATUS" and the data for the year you select will show up for all the counties.

The ACS data is available for each year between 2005 and 2013.

There are 1-year, 3-year and 5-year estimates. The 1-year estimates have a higher sampling error than the other ones, but are more recent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks a lot Tender! That's a pretty nice Christmas gift.

[The_Doctor]

In the percent columns, I should read the comma as a period, right? (The European v. American version of writing percentages throw me off sometimes).

It looks excellent otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

In the percent columns, I should read the comma as a period, right? (The European v. American version of writing percentages throw me off sometimes).

It looks excellent otherwise.

Yepp. And thx.

The chart below is the 1st part (Calculating the overall November 1, 2014 population by state, the VAP (voting-age population) and the VEP (voting-eligible population).

My next step is to compile official turnout data from each state's Secretary of State website.

The 2nd part (the comparable turnout numbers) should be out next weekend.

[Tender Branson]

The 2nd part (the comparable turnout numbers) should be out next weekend.

Done !

(right-click for huge version)

Table is sorted by VEP turnout (orange column on the right side).

[muon2]

Fabulous work!

I suspect there's some correlation to the competitiveness of the Sen/Gov races in the state. Though there's clearly a regional factor.

[Tender Branson]

Fabulous work!

I suspect there's some correlation to the competitiveness of the Sen/Gov races in the state. Though there's clearly a regional factor.

Thanks !



Yeah, it mostly has to do with a few factors such as:

* competetive Gov./Sen. races
* same day registration/all-mail voting (or both)
* high income, low poverty (see MA, MN)

On the other hand, states with non-competetive races, high shares of poor white people or (poor) minorities and no progressive election day methods in place all rank at the bottom.

[Tender Branson]

Good old times !

I will update this next month for the 2018 midterm results, when the new Census Bureau figures are out.