Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differing from yours. I will address these later.

I was not trying to be rude, but it was your first post on the forum and as a new poster you will be better received and get more enjoyment out of your time on Atlas if you follow certain well established norms.

You made a "let me tell you how it really is" post on the seventh page of a thread, which comes of as arrogant since it implies that all previous posts are written by ignoramuses who needs to be enlightened (+ your image of Greek politics seems dated). The general convention on the board is that you can make an opening post about basic facts if you create a thread or early in a new thread if the thread creator hasn't done it after a week or so (best to give posters a chance to return to their threads). Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret.

Try reading the entire thread from the start + the Greece General thread on the IG board to get a feel of the general level of knowledge and what sort of positions people have on the issues before reentering the debate. You will become a much better and more valued poster if you familiarize yourself with these things.

Also, only quote posts if you use and/or refer to the content in your argument and even then it is generally best just to quote relevant parts of a post. There is no need to quote an entire long post if you just address a post or poster on a more general level. When you quote the established practice is to place longer quotes in the start of your post. It looks weird quoting an entire post after you made your argument.

And: I meant it when I said welcome to the forum.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

I wouldn't say that's accurate, at least not when it comes to ideology.  ANEL started as a one-man party led by Panos Kammenos a loud mouth ND MP from a very wealthy family who opposed austerity policies.  He founded the party after being expelled from ND for voting against the memoranda and was followed by a number of other ND MPs.  They tried to position themselves as a big tent, anti-austerity, patriotic party by recruiting members from both the left and the right.  One of them was former PASOK MP Giannis Dimaras who had formed this party (interestingly enough, the other leader of that party, after joining DIMAR is now running with ND).  Others such as this guy are full-fledged communists.

Another thing about them that is inaccurate is that they are xenophobic.  They are country-first types that are very vocal about foreign threats, but are not hostile towards immigrants and they have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Golden Dawn and LAOS.  This was their youth leader until recently:  (she's actually running with ND in this election).

At some point before the 2012 election they looked like they could have had the success that SYRIZA eventually had, but their leader's clownish behavior as well as their laughable conspiracy theories alienated many voters.  One of the reasons they have been losing the little support they had is because they really don't have a position on pretty much any issue.  If I had to use one word to describe them it would probably be populists.

[politicus]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

I wouldn't say that's accurate, at least not when it comes to ideology.  ANEL started as a one-man party led by Panos Kammenos a loud mouth ND MP from a very wealthy family who opposed austerity policies.  He founded the party after being expelled from ND for voting against the memoranda and was followed by a number of other ND MPs.  They tried to position themselves as a big tent, anti-austerity, patriotic party by recruiting members from both the left and the right.  One of them was former PASOK MP Giannis Dimaras who had formed this party (interestingly enough, the other leader of that party, after joining DIMAR is now running with ND).  Others such as this guy are full-fledged communists.

Another thing about them that is inaccurate is that they are xenophobic.  They are country-first types that are very vocal about foreign threats, but are not hostile towards immigrants and they have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Golden Dawn and LAOS.  

At some point before the 2012 election they looked like they could have had the success that SYRIZA eventually had, but their leader's clownish behavior as well as their laughable conspiracy theories alienated many voters.  One of the reasons they have been losing the little support they had is because they really don't have a position on pretty much any issue.  If I had to use one word to describe them it would probably be populists.

While it is not a racist party their platform includes (or at least included not long ago - I am not sure if it is still in it) a limit for immigrants to 2.5% of the population, which given the size of the immigrant population in Greece means there had to be deportations.

[politicus]

The view of a couple of prominent Greek politologists (Takis S. Pappas and Paris Aslanidis):

"The people are constructed mainly on ethnic terms, a language familiar to the
average conservative right-wing voter, while at the same time racist oratory is avoided,
and Golden Dawn is considered a purely fascist party. Apart from the ethnic definition of
the people, ANEL stresses other traditional themes of the conservative right agenda, such
as the role of the family and Greek Orthodox religion."

"The discourse of the ANEL is typically anchored on the traditional themes of the
populist radical right. The attack by foreign forces aims at the Greek nation and Christian
Orthodox traditions, while immigrants are seen as a weapon in the hands of the New
World Order. For this reason, the program of ANEL supplies a quota for immigrants, up
to a maximum of 2.5 percent of the total population."

[politicus]

Takis Pappas is also the author of excellent Populism and Crisis Politics in Greece. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan (2014). If anyone wants to dig a little deeper.

[Zanas]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differeing from yours. I will address these later.

Ah, yes, meet our fellow Danish poster, she's quite a bit... I wouldn't say rude as much as uptight.

But even she seems to ignore that after reconvening, the new parliament would hold a maximum of three further rounds of voting for president : first a 3/5 majority vote (needing 180 votes), then 5 days later an absolute majority vote (needing 151 votes), then at last five days later a relative majority vote among the top two candidates of the previous round. See here. So Syriza doesn't need 180 votes for president, they just need 151, which is what they need to govern in any case.

So, yeah, we're all savvy and all, and you need to look a bit into what we already covered on the matter before making new posts or you'll come out as a bit arrogant.

And as for Philip Weisler, the same goes for you, but keep it cool, you'll blend in just fine.

[politicus]

Ah, yes, meet our fellow Danish poster, she's quite a bit... I wouldn't say rude as much as uptight.

But even she seems to ignore that after reconvening, the new parliament would hold a maximum of three further rounds of voting for president : first a 3/5 majority vote (needing 180 votes), then 5 days later an absolute majority vote (needing 151 votes), then at last five days later a relative majority vote among the top two candidates of the previous round. See here. So Syriza doesn't need 180 votes for president, they just need 151, which is what they need to govern in any case.

So, yeah, we're all savvy and all, and you need to look a bit into what we already covered on the matter before making new posts or you'll come out as a bit arrogant.

And as for Philip Weisler, the same goes for you, but keep it cool, you'll blend in just fine.

Cheap shot - and you know it. There were some basic misunderstandings in what PW wrote, not just a misremembered fact as this one. The two are not comparable.

[Zanas]

Cheap shot - and you know it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's all calm down and discuss in calm and measured tones of measured calm the least calm and least measured election of the year (probably).

[Philip Weisler]

''SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible'' May-be it's just me as a ''right-of-centre'' type of a guy but I'm personally much more concerned about SYRIZA, which includes some outright communist and lots of other far-left folks than about ANEL which was an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives.

She's a good example of why SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible.  From what I understand she was the vice president of ANEL and one of their most popular MPs until she left them.  ANTARSYA claims that she tried to join their party but they rejected her application, which makes SYRIZA look even worse IMO.

SYRIZA MEP Dim. Papadimoulis by the way on his twitter account requested that SYRIZA candidates not improvise when they don't know an issue very well.

[Philip Weisler]

Stop posting personally motivated comments here, ok?

''Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret. ''

According to this logic lots of your own posts, where you e.g. state obvious facts such as ''The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins'' become illegitimate.

If you disagree with my conduct, please contact a neutral admin, but let's stop this discussion here, ok?

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differing from yours. I will address these later.

I was not trying to be rude, but it was your first post on the forum and as a new poster you will be better received and get more enjoyment out of your time on Atlas if you follow certain well established norms.

You made a "let me tell you how it really is" post on the seventh page of a thread, which comes of as arrogant since it implies that all previous posts are written by ignoramuses who needs to be enlightened (+ your image of Greek politics seems dated). The general convention on the board is that you can make an opening post about basic facts if you create a thread or early in a new thread if the thread creator hasn't done it after a week or so (best to give posters a chance to return to their threads). Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret.

Try reading the entire thread from the start + the Greece General thread on the IG board to get a feel of the general level of knowledge and what sort of positions people have on the issues before reentering the debate. You will become a much better and more valued poster if you familiarize yourself with these things.

Also, only quote posts if you use and/or refer to the content in your argument and even then it is generally best just to quote relevant parts of a post. There is no need to quote an entire long post if you just address a post or poster on a more general level. When you quote the established practice is to place longer quotes in the start of your post. It looks weird quoting an entire post after you made your argument.

And: I meant it when I said welcome to the forum.

[Philip Weisler]

There were some points were I disagreed with Charlotte's evaluation.

''That is way too simplistic. First, Syriza also wants to remain in the Eurozone. Second, those parties also share some common values. Third, some kind of compromise will have to be made in order for the country to function.''

There are cases in politics, where it's ''either A or B'', i.e. simply not much room for the compromise. If SYRIZA forms the government and is really gonna pursue the policies they've proposed to the people, then - as commentators well-versed in economy argue - the consequence is default and leaving the eurozone. Has anyone already mentioned here that the small Finland's stance is uncompromising, i.e. no more forgiving the debts for Greece. If PASOK or Potami still jump on the bandwagon of SYRIZA with these declared future policies, then it's not a compromise, but a U-turn from their side.

''Dimar has been in coalition talks with Syriza and will not get back to working with ND. ND has been moving to the right and working with them is increasingly toxic for the centre-left.''

I don't know what you mean with ND becoming more right-wing. What we do know, however, is that actually Greece economic situation is better now than in 2012, when Samaras cabinet was formed with the support from PASOK and DIMAR. Obviously it would be easier for a leftist party to support a right-wing government while the economy is showing sign of recovery.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@Philip

Samaras has made moves to the social right in issues like immigration - that last thing he needs is a populist right revival, so making overtures towards the liberals on things like law and order could be anathema.

I also think you're being a bit generous to Potami by claiming they have any policy at all. I imagine Potami - and PASOK for that matter - would justify being in a Syriza led government (or at least offering supply and confidence votes) as "maintaining a stable government" and "respecting the voter's decision".

[politicus]

@Philip

Samaras has made moves to the social right in issues like immigration - that last thing he needs is a populist right revival, so making overtures towards the liberals on things like law and order could be anathema.

I also think you're being a bit generous to Potami by claiming they have any policy at all. I imagine Potami - and PASOK for that matter - would justify being in a Syriza led government (or at least offering supply and confidence votes) as "maintaining a stable government" and "respecting the voter's decision".

A party founded by a big ego TV personality like Stavros Theodorakis and reliant on his personal popularity is unlikely to be very principled about anything and its ideological coalition of leftists and neo-liberals are so broad that apart from being pro-European, anti-racist and pro civil rights they are unlikely to stand firm on anything. Immigration would be a problem in working with ND, since their right wing would give Samaras trouble if he compromised on this and civil rights would also cause trouble with the law and order crowd, so Potami-ND might actually be hard. Potami is also committed to standard social liberal "make middle class progressives feel good about themselves" policies which can only be implemented with the left. Given that Syriza is bound to move to the center on economic policy Syriza-Potami would work if it had to. Fairly pragmatic New Left + populist and fairly unprincipled Social Liberals should work.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, I think @Philip, you may be taken in by some of the more ... melodramatic statements from both  Syriza and their opponents.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't see why ND-The River wouldn't work. Limiting immigration is not an inherently fascistic position. As long as ND don't call the people "darkies" The River should be accepting of it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think they will quite basically offer supply to whichever party ends up with the bonus seats.

Remember a of these new parties hate the "old parties" represented by PASOK and ND, which puts further barriers in the way of coalitions. They also have seen the sad fate of DIMAR and do not want to follow.

[Philip Weisler]

I wouldn't take for granted the point some people are underscoring here that some ND right-wingers who may have very socially conservative or anti-immigration views could be a major obstacle. I mean, in November 2011 the Greeks managed to form a pro-bailout coalition with even LAOS (!) represented in it. And LAOS is surely further to the right than ANEL, let alone ND.

The socially conservative views of some ND folks is simply not gonna be a major obstacle this time. The election is not about it this time. In some Western countries like, say, Holland, the immigration question is a very serious issue (we could see PVV forming a coalition with D'66 based on economic views only, but it ain't gonna happen as social issues are more prominent in Holland).

I don't see why ND-The River wouldn't work. Limiting immigration is not an inherently fascistic position. As long as ND don't call the people "darkies" The River should be accepting of it.

[politicus]

A new poll by Metron Analysis gives Syriza a margin of 4.6% over ND and 147 seats, 4 seats up from last week. Polarization continues with 2/3 now voting for the two big parties. ANEL and MDS very close to the threshold. If ANEL gets under Syriza seems likely to get a majority with the current trend towards polarization.

Syriza 35.4% (147)
ND 30.8% (85)
Potami 7.1% (19)
Golden Dawn 5.4% (15)
KKE 5.1% (14)
Pasok 4.2% (12)
ANEL 3.0% ( 8 )
------
MDS 2.7%.


11.5% undecideds. Largest group was middle class women aged 35-44.

Self description among undecideds:

27% centrist
18% on the left
21% on the right
22%  ‘none of the above’.
12% NA

So roughly equal distribution with an over representation of centrists as one could expect.

[politicus]

I don't see why ND-The River wouldn't work. Limiting immigration is not an inherently fascistic position. As long as ND don't call the people "darkies" The River should be accepting of it.

No of course not, but like PP in Spain ND stretches quite far rightwards and given that Samaras has moved to the right rhetorically during the campaign it would be difficult for him just to adjust towards the center without alienating his right wing, so it would be hard to reach a compromise with Potami on immigration and civil rights/crime - and I think  this would be two areas where Potami may actually have some principles.

As an example: Pasok hasn't really been critical of stuff like Greece's very heavy handed treatment of refugees - Potami might. It is not just about the size of immigration, but also the treatment of them (as a hint I can say that there are four EU countries DK does not send refugee families with children back to: Bulgaria, Italy, Malta and Greece, so our authorities count the Greek conditions for refugees as worse than Romania and Cyprus).

Potami could provide support for the economic policy of an ND government, but if they were to actually enter government that would likely be with Syriza.  

There is the question of how much of NDs right wing Takis Baltakos took with him when he formed (hard right) ‘Roots’ (Rizes), but I think that was rather marginal.

EDT: He didn't get on the ballot, so marginal.

[politicus]

I wouldn't take for granted the point some people are underscoring here that some ND right-wingers who may have very socially conservative or anti-immigration views could be a major obstacle. I mean, in November 2011 the Greeks managed to form a pro-bailout coalition with even LAOS (!) represented in it. And LAOS is surely further to the right than ANEL, let alone ND.

The socially conservative views of some ND folks is simply not gonna be a major obstacle this time. The election is not about it this time. In some Western countries like, say, Holland, the immigration question is a very serious issue (we could see PVV forming a coalition with D'66 based on economic views only, but it ain't gonna happen as social issues are more prominent in Holland).

Given that ND is moving to the right on these issues to get the right wing vote that used to vote XA, ANEL and LAOS, but has left those parties immigration and terror fear are actually significant factors. Check some of the links to articles about this on the previous pages.

See fx:

Samaras links the Charlie Hebdo massacre to immigration.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/samars-seeks-to-use-charlie-hebdo-massacre-for-electoral-gain

“SYRIZA is somewhere else, it wants to give mass citizenship insurance and social security to illegal immigrants. You see what is happening today in Europe, everything is changing in a dramatic way. In France the socialist Hollande brought the military out in the streets. Today in Paris there was a slaughter and here some people are inviting more illegal immigrants and giving out citizenship"

Also, Greek politics has on some areas moved on from 2010-12. The 2010-11 debt crisis and the resulting protests (with demonstrations and general strikes across the country) was an exceptional situation and you can not assume Greek politics works in exactly the same way now. That is what I meant by saying your image of Greek politics is dated. A factor like Syriza's (attempt of) transformation from protest party to potential governing party affects everything. ND can no longer scare moderate voters with irresponsible Syria and chaos as easily as before and need new attack lins. The near collapse of ANEL and exposure of Golden Dawn leaves free floating voters on the right wing, thereby tempting ND to pick them up. The Charlie Hebdo attack influences people's view of the world. Stuff happens and politicians react to it.

[Zanas]

So I've averaged the last ten polls from ten different pollsters again, none dating from more than Jan 13th.

Syriza   35   (145)
ND   31,1   (85)
Potami   6,7   (18)
XA   5,9   (16)
KKE   5,4   (15)
Pasok   4,8   (13)
Anel   3,1   (8 )
KDS   2,6   
Autres   5,4

Anel makes it in all polls but 2, whereas KDS fails to make it in all polls but 3. Even without Anel, Syriza's not getting an absolute majority, they get stuck at 148 or 149. But the gap between Syriza and ND isn't shrinking : it's never less than 2.5, and sometimes as high as 5.5.   

[politicus]

So I've averaged the last ten polls from ten different pollsters again, none dating from more than Jan 13th.

Syriza   35   (145)
ND   31,1   (85)
Potami   6,7   (18)
XA   5,9   (16)
KKE   5,4   (15)
Pasok   4,8   (13)
Anel   3,1   (8 )
KDS   2,6   
Autres   5,4

Anel makes it in all polls but 2, whereas KDS fails to make it in all polls but 3. Even without Anel, Syriza's not getting an absolute majority, they get stuck at 148 or 149. But the gap between Syriza and ND isn't shrinking : it's never less than 2.5, and sometimes as high as 5.5.   

Does that include the E-Voice poll from January 17? It has Syriza down to 33.9 and ANEL on 4.2.  and it doesn't look like E-Voice is a serious pollster.

[Philip Weisler]

I disagree with Charlotte's suggestion that I have rather outdated views.

The election is first and foremost about two choices: a) continuing with the austerity course dictated by the memorandum and agreements with the Greek creditors, without whose money the country would be bankrupt within a couple of months or b) scrapping the memorandum as proposed by SYRIZA and smaller anti-austeriy parties. According to commentators across the spectrum (for an overview, try ''Greek Euro Exit Would Be A Benefit, So Why Is Samaras Warning Of The Risk?'' in Forbes, I can't add hyperlinks), this choice will inevitably lead to sovereign debt default and an exit from the eurozone. That SYRIZA is paying lip-service to ''keeping the euro'' is irrelevant here and I'd be surprised if an experienced commentator like Charlotte would buy into that. How is this chance compatible with your claim that ''ND can no longer scare moderate voters with irresponsible Syria and chaos as easily as before and need new attack lins.''? Of course it scares people who adhere to the view that even a very slow and difficult recovery is better than GREXIT!

It's not so much about being left or right, but rather, differing alternatives on how to get the economy back on track again. And needless to say, in a country where poverty is rampant and lots of children have nothing to eat, this is the ultimate question atm.

Of course, SYRIZA can renege on its promises, such as higher social spending and creating new jobs in the public sector (for which there's of course no money under the current order). That's possible (though I personally think they won't do it). I will discuss the way SYRIZA can proceed while in government in a separate post.

This leaves us the immigration question again. Charlotte was quite right when she pointed out that the islamic terrorist attack can have repercussions in politics (''The Charlie Hebdo attack influences people's view of the world''). However, there have been no major repercussions in Greek politics yet, as evident from the fact that anti-immigration parties like XA, ANEL and LAOS are polling (cf. ''Opinion polling for the Greek legislative election, 2015'' on Wikipedia) just as poorly as they've been doing for many many months. You are overestimating this issue.

[Zanas]

snip

Does that include the E-Voice poll from January 17? It has Syriza down to 33.9 and ANEL on 4.2.  and it doesn't look like E-Voice is a serious pollster.

Yes it does, and as I said I have no idea of the respective quality of those pollsters, sadly we have no regular Greek poster who could enlighten us. But this E-Voice poll is not totally inconsistant with other polls, Anel hits 4.1 in another one, and Syriza is little above 34 in three other ones. Well within the general MoE at least.