Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Whatever happened to Social Agreement? Do they still exist?

[Famous Mortimer]

Four polls out today ! And the "Pro Olympic Circles" poll mentioned earlier showing KDS above Pasok has disappeared from the wiki page... So has the second poll with KDS above. I don't know who modifies the page, but it's a bit weird. Still, I've just averaged the four polls into this :

Syriza   34.4 (147)
ND   31 (87)
Potami   6.5 (18)
XA   6.2 (17)
KKE   5.7 (16)
Pasok   5.3 (15)
KDS   2.9 (0)
Anel   2.8 (0)
Others   5.2

So Pasok seems to be keeping their last voters after all, and it looks like Papandreou could well not make it. Also the gap between Syriza and ND has closed a bit.

Honestly I'm not surprised. The only people still voting for PASOK are people who vote out of habit.

[Famous Mortimer]

Rachil Makri, an MP formerly affiliated with Independent Greeks, will run with SYRIZA.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think most politically savvy people realize it isn't that big a leap. There are some truest of the true leftists in SYRIZA though who aren't that savvy and are pissed about it.

[Famous Mortimer]

and Social Agreement is officially running with SYRIZA.

[Famous Mortimer]

Grand coalition people are the worse than people who want a Golden Dawn government.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't see how SYRIZA and The River can form a government after The River took on all those neo-liberals.

I think we need to start thinking about what happens if there's a hung parliament.

SYRIZA landslide in new election? ND squeaker in new election? No winner in new election either? 3rd election? Grand coalition? Coup? Revolution?

It's entirely possible this comment will look ridiculous in two weeks but I really think all possibilities are on the table at this point.

If there's no workable majority after this election, it will basically be the objective failure of electoral democracy. There's no precedent for what happens next.

[Famous Mortimer]

Go ahead and set me straight by answering the question.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't see why ND-The River wouldn't work. Limiting immigration is not an inherently fascistic position. As long as ND don't call the people "darkies" The River should be accepting of it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Asking for a referendum was just a half assed way of rejecting austerity the first time around.

Now it makes even less sense. You aren't in power. You aren't going to win. You don't have to soften your stance to appease Europe. Just come out and say you're against austerity.

[Famous Mortimer]

Regardless of whether social issues matter, can anyone say with confidence that The River is more liberal than SYRIZA on social issues? SYRIZA favors basically open immigration. I'm betting they also favor gay marriage too.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

The four justices who have "decided" can change their vote at any time. So they have just as much power as the swing voter.

[Famous Mortimer]

If they need it, it looks like there will be a coalition with Independent Greeks. Talks for tomorrow already set up.