UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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Channel 4 saying Neil Hamilton wants to run.

Ahahahaha. Tory hold.

OMG PLEASE YES

unfortunately Farage hates him, so will probably put the kibosh on anything fun

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Junk poll in Southampton Itchen, or is something odd going on locally?

I wonder how many seats the Lib Dems will beat UKIP in next year.

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Does the election forecast's website map have a higher resolution? I want to see their projection in London.

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Last time Farage himself took a brave stand against tradition be standing against Bercow. He was beaten by a man dressed as a dolphin, but still.

That said, I do like the idea of a non-partisan Speaker, but I do feel a bit bad for people living in Buckingham, who have even less influence with their vote than the rest of us plebs.

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Chris Kelly (Conservative, Dudley South) is standing down. He also wishes Carswell "all the best" in his election. Further awkwardness for Cameron.

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Liberal Democrats release pre-manifesto. It includes:

* four weeks of paternity leave
* the mansion tax on houses over £2,000,000
* An aim to balance budget by 2017/18.
* higher Capital Gains taxes
* no subsidised TV license or fuel allowances for better-off elderly
* cheaper bus travel for young people
* decriminalisation of drugs, Portugal style and possibly an endorsement of cannabis legalisation
* rule out all airport/runway expansions or openings in London
* phasing out coal power by 2050
* abolishing PCC's
* STV for local elections
* Voting age at 16

Who knows how much will get through in the event of a coalition? (my wager is that the drugs and the airport policies would be hardest to implement; as well as the various tax rises if it's another blue-yellow coalition).

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Remember when people were talking earlier this thread about Bercow's seat? Well, it looks like UKIP are standing again in Buckingham.

For people outside the UK, Bercow is disliked by a lot of people. Some of it is from the Tory right, who think he is a turncoat (he often flirted with defecting as a backbencher) and can't "control" his wife (ew) ; but he has been involved with both the expenses scandal (his formidable dolphin-suited challenger in 2010 was named "Flipper" in homage to his second-home "flipping") and a current kerfuffle about the installation of the Commons Clerk, which he has well and truly bungled.

Anyway, he's unpopular; UKIP will probably be his only real challenger (no dolphins next year, I guess). Probably a Speaker hold- a defeated Speaker is, as far as I know, unprecedented -but you never know. I can't imagine many Tories will rush in to defend Bercow anyway.

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I think he's a decent speaker myself - much better than Martin - but he didn't get a fantastic result in 2010 running against jokes (as UKIP were in that election).

HS2 is another factor. It runs straight through the constituency, and Bercow - though he opposes HS2 - is unable to vote against it due to his status.

The challenge'll probably go nowhere (this present scandal seems stupid to be honest ), but still might be fun to watch on election night.

(In 2013, these were the council results in the relevant wards:

Con         38.95
UKIP        25.21
LibDem    14.60
Lab          10.89
Ind           7.72
Green       2.63

)

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I can imagine Northern regions might be more likely to break away under the Tory led coalition to escape the policies of the South East.

In fact a domino of devolutions would probably break out if one or two regions took the plunge for federalisation. The issue is making non-artificial regions with actual real names (none of this "South-East England" crap); and dealing with oddities (would Cornwall just be a tiny state or could they deal with being linked to Devon/Somerset/Avon/Dorset?).

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Nonetheless, not a bad starting point.

It's an interesting idea. Many of the regions themselves were in many ways defined by geography; signal strength being dictated by hills etc.

In terms of 'federalising' England, The North East is fine as it is, though it might make sense to re-establish the border with Yorkshire at the Tees. Yorkshire is a defined entity; the current region but excluding North Lincs. The North West is broadly fine. Cumbria is a bit of a problem I suppose but it's links are certainly south rather than east. The West Midlands makes sense too as does the East Midlands. It's once we get south that things get problematic.

The South West actually makes sense but perhaps it would be better served by having 'the peninsula' as one area and then unite the rest with Oxford, Bucks etc into a central southern region. The Sussex's, Kent, Surrey can be the rest. Perhaps I don't care enough about the South anyway

This is probably the best map I've found for dividing England up into 8 regional assemblies. Lincolnshire has a lot in common with East Anglia (flat agricultural land, sparse population etc) so combining those areas into one regional assembly makes sense. My personal preference would be for a single Midlands region rather than East and West as shown here as people who live there define themselves as of being from the midlands.

The South Of England region could be moved west slightly so as not to make the West Country's area too large and meandering (again as shown here). The only thing this map doesn't show is London as a separate region but that devolved area already exists and is fairly obvious.

In the north it's simpler. The North West would include Cumbria (although I'm open minded about whether it could be combined with the North East to make a North Of England region) as shown here. Yorkshire is probably the easiest region as it's already a defined area as already stated.

I particularly enjoy the North West annexing the Isle of Man.

Apart from that it seems OK, apart from a few issues:

Would Cornwall receive an Assembly? I imagine that could be a persistent demand.
If London secedes from that SE region, what happens to that section of Herfordshire that would be cut-off from the rest of the region? (Incidentally, I have seen some ideas for an expanded Greater London that include the entire conurbation.
They need real names (Would the mediaeval names suffice?)
 

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Northhumbria, Mercia and Wessex ftw.

(I guess Essex, Sussex and Kent are too small)

You bet!

I suppose you could make a Home Counties Assembly with a London shaped hole in the middle (like the Brandenburg/Berlin situation is arranged) to "fix" the SE situation.

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I wonder how many Labour seats are up for grabs in Scotland?

Dundee West, Aberdeen North, Ochil all were pretty close last time and could fall on a bad swing to the Nats. But, I wonder if the Yes campaign in Glasgow could boost results unexpectedly - perhaps that Glasgow seat that fell to the SNP once in a by-election will be reclaimed.

This also cements my belief that Carmichael and Kennedy will be the only Scottish Lib Dems returned next election.

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The 6% UKIP vote intrigues me. Where is it concentrated? If it splits the Tory vote in the Borders, perhaps it will save Moore's hide.

Also LOL that Swinson manages to keep her seat on UNS.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

Lol.

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Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

They do that in Canada and it doesn't create good debates. Lots of leaders squabbling and the public is forced to watch small leaders blather on about things they don't care about  (e.g. The Bloc Quebecois always got invited to the English debates).

I think Ed-David or Ed-David-Nigel-Nick are the only reasonable ways to go.

They do the two main PM candidates in Australia and NZ right?

Germany as well. The SPD and the CDU leaders first have a debate, followed by a minor party debate.

I'e always thought you should be invited to at least the minor party debate if you're running candidates in the vast majority of constituencies.

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If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

What makes you think their rise would have such a result ?

Farage is a fan of AV Plus , I believe. (Of all the egregious errors Yes2AV campaign made, not making use of Farage was the worst)

Are they going to have five-way debates in Wales then? (Plaid+ four national parties)

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A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Exit_plan_competition

I would say "widespread" is hyperbole. Most seem to want to stay, but with renegotiated deals. (Although to be fair, the establishment can't organise a referendum campaign to save their lives, so who knows what would happen?

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It makes sense for them to run to try and grab a decent second or third place in some of those seats - they have been routinely winning wards in Sheffield Central (possibly the popular this parliament and they're the second party in Solihull now. Obviously politics are in an enormous state of flux at the moment, so the Greens could conceivably gain seats if everyone manages to split votes from each other. Look at Sollihull, which could reasonably grab a decent amount of Tory>UKIP defectors (it was listed as one of the "long-shot" UKIP seats in the Guardian recently) and have a lot of homeless Liberal voters that will bleed everywhere.

And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

But yeah the Green administration of Brighton has dropped the ball, and will probably be defeated in 2015, so Lucas may get the boot alongside the council. Part of the perils of the national party putting its eggs in one basket.

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And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

If only the Greens were lucky enough to still have Lucas as their leader though. Natalie Bennett is a gift to her opponents.

Yeah, Bennett was a bad choice. The Greens truly chose the wrong person when Lucas stepped down. However Cameron's idea was for Lucas to be invited and not Bennett, for some reason.

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Alastair Darling standing down in Edinburgh South West.

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At this point UK polls are far too depressing to look at. Damn this 5-year long term! Just like Labour to implode the minute before they run the risk of winning.

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Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

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Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

has he done something or has he just realised that no-one likes him?

The latter; I imagine UKIP central office realised their whole "anti-evil politicians" schtick would look pretty dumb if it brought Mr Brown Envelopes back into the House.

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A below 50% chance of Farage himself winning? what.

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Gordon Brown standing down in 2015.