MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[mattocaster6]

PredictIt doesn't seem to believe the poll, Quist fell to 20c at first but rebounded to 33c shortly after:

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

[PredictIt User]

The reweighted poll is still bad, the libertarian is way too high, he won't get past 5%. Also, it seems like Gianforte has struggled to get over 47% in the last few weeks so this leads me to believe this race is tighter than people think.

[cinyc]

We're at 482/567 on my Google Survey.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll.  

[PredictIt User]

"The last time I believe it took 20 minutes or so until the first big vote dump came in. After that, it really depends. It's nowhere near as quick as Florida, but if either candidate wins by 4 or more, we should know the outcome of the race relatively soon. If it's decided by 2 points or less than that, it'll be a long night for sure, lol."

MT Treasurer, do you know what counties are usually the quickest at counting and which counties are the slowest? For example, do the rural or urban counties come in first?

[Virginiá]

We're at 482/576 on my poll.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll. 

Do you do these polls just to help satiate your curiosity? Regardless of the reason, thank you for sharing them here!

[mattocaster6]

We're at 482/576 on my poll.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll. 

But does it confirm my 79 sample size "poll" with Quist 40 points ahead?

[cinyc]

We're at 482/567 on my Google Survey.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll. 

Do you do these polls just to help satiate your curiosity? Regardless of the reason, thank you for sharing them here!

It's part curiosity, part hope that they're actually accurate and actually tell us something about the race.  Amdcpus got me hooked back during the 2016 election.  Once you've commissioned one Google Survey, it's somewhat addictive.  But I've been increasingly skeptical of their reliability.  Had I not done the first poll back in March, and the second poll in April, I wouldn't have done this one.   This poll is probably my last.  It's a huge waste of money.

[cinyc]

We're at 482/576 on my poll.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll. 

But does it confirm my 79 sample size "poll" with Quist 40 points ahead?

It's not done yet, but I'm pretty confident that nobody will end up 40 points ahead.  These Google polls can be pretty wonky sometimes from results release to release, though.

[Sorenroy]

We're at 482/567 on my Google Survey.  It should be finished tomorrow.  So far, it doesn't confirm Gravis' poll. 

Do you do these polls just to help satiate your curiosity? Regardless of the reason, thank you for sharing them here!

It's part curiosity, part hope that they're actually accurate and actually tell us something about the race.  Amdcpus got me hooked back during the 2016 election.  Once you've commissioned one Google Survey, it's somewhat addictive.  But I've been increasingly skeptical of their reliability.  Had I not done the first poll back in March, and the second poll in April, I wouldn't have done this one.   This poll is probably my last.  It's a huge waste of money.

Well they might not show the accurate numbers, but are they at all decent at showing how the race is shifting?

[Brittain33]

Gianforte still feels favored in this one. The head of the DCCC had a pessimistic comment recently.

[cinyc]

My Google Survey is complete.   The poll is available here, along with my weighting spreadsheet with weighted crosstabs.

573 total respondents were polled from May 21-23.  Of the 573, 385 chose a candidate.  The question asked was:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Weighted by Age and Sex (to the November 2014 CPS for actual voters) and Region (West vs. East), the Results were:

Quist 54%
Gianforte 39%
Wicks 7%

Or Quist +15.

Raw, it was Quist+14.  Simple Weighted by only sex and age, like we've done for other polls this cycle, it was Quist +16.

As usual for our Google Surveys, the poll showed a big East/West Divide.  Western Montanans (n=181) preferred Quist by 32 points (weighted by age, sex and region and raw).  Eastern Montanans (n=134) picked Gianforte by 4 (5 raw).

Recall that I've split Eastern and Western Montana this way in our Google Polling:


There is a gender gap, with men supporting Quist by 12 (weighted)/7 (raw), and women supporting Quist by 23 (weighted)/26 (raw).  Every age group except 45-54 year olds backed Quist.  And, as in other Google Polls, there is a huge Suburban/Rural gap, with suburban voters backing Quist by 24/21, and rurals only going Quist by 1/3.  Rural voters made up 37% of the weighted and raw samples.

More, perhaps, to come.  But this poll looks like as big an outlier as Gravis', unfortunately.  Average the two polls together, and we might be on to something.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Between these Google polls, Gravis, and the CBO report coming out on the 24th, I have no idea what's going on up there.

[Chief Justice Keef]

The story probably lies somewhere in the middle. I still see Quist having a very small advantage over Gianforte in this race, but it's going to be close.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Well, I warned you guys before. Just wait until you see cinyc's Google poll, you're going to be even more surprised, haha.

aren't you all the time doubting a big republican advantage and talking about a narrow gianforte win?

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, averaging this with Gravis might get us pretty close to the end result.

Quist (54%+35%)/2 = 44.5%
Gianforte (39%+49%)/2 = 44%
Wicks (7%+8%)/2 = 7.5%

If you bring Wicks down to a more realistic 4.5% and distribute the remaining amount evenly:

Quist - 48%
Gianforte - 47.5%
Wicks - 4.5%

[GlobeSoc]

Ive Saïd it several times. The. Data. Is. A. Dumpster. Fire.

[_]

Ive Saïd it several times. The. Data. Is. A. Dumpster. Fire.

There is no data, only madness and a group of people watching in awe at the stupidity of the pollsters.

[Tender Branson]

I have no clue what's going on, but I'm still sticking with an R-win by 2-6 points.

[_]

Gianforte +6 to Quist +1, I wish we had 1 somewhat decent poll.

[cinyc]

Here's a chart on how the results came in over time (cumulative weighted):



As you can see, there was an early huge spike for Quist, and Gianforte never recovered.  The poll almost reverted to single-digit respectability on late Monday, but then started veering into outlier territory again.  Quist's lead actually grew to 20 points overnight before reverting downward to 15 in the final tally rather quickly.  

This is why I don't like releasing poll results early.  They tend to be swingy.  All of this is probably moot, though - unless Quist wins by double-digits (unlikely), I'm never commissioning another Google Survey.  They're crap.

[_]

Here's a chart on how the results came in over time (weighted):



As you can see, there was an early huge spike for Quist, and Gianforte never recovered.  The poll almost reverted to single-digit respectability on late Monday, but then started veering into outlier territory again.  Quist's lead actually grew to 20 points overnight before reverting downward to 15 in the final tally rather quickly. 

This is why I don't like releasing poll results early.  They tend to be swingy.  All of this is probably moot, though - unless Quist wins by double-digits (unlikely), I'm never commissioning another Google Survey.  They're crap.

Hey they're better then Gravis at least.

[Adam Griffin]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

Told you!

Gravis should be banned from this forum...talk about polling blue balls

We did basically ban Gravis from the forum averages two years ago...but then a bunch of n00bs came in and everybody forgot about how sh[inks]tty Gravis was and they were given legitimacy here again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have no clue what's going on, but I'm still sticking with an R-win by 2-6 points.

Me too, but I'm now thinking it's going to be on the lower end of that range.  Here's my final prediction:

Gianforte 49
Quist 47
Wicks 4

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Between these Google polls, Gravis, and the CBO report coming out on the 24th, I have no idea what's going on up there.

Same dude, you are not alone.

[Holmes]

Thanks for the poll cinyc.