2016 presidential win for GOP, one-termer in the making?

[Devils30]

Although many Democrats will be angry if someone like let's say Christie is elected. Does anyone else see the possibility that a GOP presidential term could become like Carter's? Christie for example would take fire from the tea party for not being conservative enough while his nastiness toward people might turn off just about everyone after a year or two. Possible that the GOP cuts taxes for the wealthy and the economy fails to grow. Then in 2018 Dems gain a bunch of governorships and house seats but still are in the minority. In 2020 with presidential turnout this would be a near perfect Democratic scenario.

[Devils30]

Obamas 2008 win has a lot of parallels to Nixons 1968. He won by a modest margin in the electoral college and put new states into play for Democrats such as Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. Nixon would have won by a similar margin if not for Wallace. 2012 also would have been a larger Obama win if he faced someone like Bachmann who was the GOP version of McGovern. The demographics of America pretty much guarantee a competitive showing for Democrats in 2016 and by 2020 an unpopular Republican president could doom the GOP.

[Devils30]

No, but Nixon won 1968 44-43% nationally. If Nixon wins 2/3 of the Wallace vote it looks very similar to the 53-46% Obama won 2008 by. And Dems dominated Congress during the 1970s as well. What I'm saying is the rosy look of the GOP dominating all non-presidential offices is built on sand, not steel.

[Devils30]

It's hard to imagine now but the next unpopular Republican president will face an absolute bloodbath in terms of the # Democratic votes against. It won't be like 2006, 2010, 2014, in terms of sheer numbers it could be twice that.

[Devils30]

Christie would have scandals, that is pretty much a given. The worst case scenario for the GOP isn't losing 2016, it's winning and having a disaster of a Presidency.

Here's the absolute worst case: 2018 is a somewhat normal midterm, GOP keeps both houses of congress but Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia tire of eight years of Republicans and elect Dems as governors. Then a recession hits in 2019, not a major one compared to 2008 but the first since that time. Christie then vetoes some conservative bills and angers tea partiers. He doesn't get along with the press and tells a reporter to go **** off. Then in 2020, the Dems get 43-45% of the white vote and that translates to a 57-42 win nationally. The GOP loses the Senate easily, the House by a dozen seats and a few safely gerrymandered legislatures like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Democrats take full control in New York, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada. While the GOP maintains control of Florida, Ohio legislatures, the courts draw the 2022 maps after a gubernatorial veto.

Just many crazy scenarios for the next 6 years!

[Devils30]

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/books/phillips-southern.pdf

This guy predicted the GOP majority in 1965 and it really took another 16 years for things to take place. Guess the emerging Democratic majority starting in 2020 isn't so absurd after all.