When will Arkansas vote Democratic in a presidential election?

[Thunderbird is the word]

According to the Nate Silver app (per wormyguy), Arkansas would not swing Democratic even if the Democratic candidate was to win 50% of whites, 95% of blacks, 80% of Hispanics, 80% of Asians, and 70% of others.  I find myself a tad skeptical of thus; just four years ago, the AR Dems controlled both Senate seats, the statehouse, and 3/4 House seats.  I could see Arkansas returning to the Democrats in 2016 with the right candidate (such as Hillary or Schweitzer) under the right circumstances.  That said, there's probably little to no chance of that happening if neither of them are the nominee.

Arkansas females pissed on Barack Obama by dropping their 2008 Democratic support down to 39 percent after giving 49 percent of their vote to John Kerry in 2004. Difference of course was that Hillary Clinton, who would have won the state in a Democratic pickup had she been her party nominee, wasn't on the ballot. This is the state with those PUMAs.

Good thing about Obama was a re-route to the presidency that meant winning Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, making him the first Democrat, with at least two elections, to win the state every time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Ark. used to be a state that backed all prevailing Democrats. The same used to be true with Missouri and Texas. And on the Republican side, the same used to be with New Hampshire (which didn't carry for George W. Bush's re-election in 2004) and Iowa (which didn't carry for George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988). Things change.

If we could see a Democrat win a 40-state landslide, I wouldn't mind Arkansas being one of ten states siding with the losing Republican. Just as this state did with losing Democrats in 1928, 1952, and 1956. Arkansas is not a pivotal state. It did vote with the winner in the nine elections of 1972 to 2004, but it shifted in opposite direction from the country in 2008 (resentment of the PUMAs; men held their Democratic vote, from 2004 and 2008, steady) and was way off again in 2012 (I still laugh at the notion that Mitt Romney, the type of Republican who ran in the wrong decade, carried any states in the south).

Yeah Romney should have ran in the 1980's. But "The South" really didn't take a liking to Obama ever except for NC.  VA doesn't count because of NOVA and NOVA is part of the Northeast now because of its proximity to MD.

Honestly even now against a different type of Democrat I could see Romney doing poorly in the south. The biggest landslide scenario for Democrats in 2008 i've often imagined is John Edwards vs Romney if Edwards had somehow never met Rielle Hunter. In the wake of the financial collapse I could almost see the populist Edwards sweeping the south against a rich Mormon from Massachussetts.