British Local Elections, May 2024

[TheTide]

Houchen has won the Hartlepool division by 2,000 votes. Way down on his 13,000 majority there last time, but looks like he’s home and dry.

Tories got 35% in Hartlepool for the council elections - in the mayoral race, they won 53%

He's (narrowly) won Middlesbrough, so yes it's over.

[Pericles]

'MIDTERM'?!

How long is Rishi Sunak planning on dragging out this cursed Parliament for?
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1786285989679235582

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786348925034615269

[YL]

Blackburn with Darwen (and specifically the Blackburn bit) is another area with Independents taking seats off Labour…

.. but in turn Labour are taking seats off the Tories.

[Cassius]

'MIDTERM'?!

How long is Rishi Sunak planning on dragging out this cursed Parliament for?
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1786285989679235582

Well, the Long Parliament ran for twenty years, so maybe by 2039 the polls will finally have turned (it also didn’t sit for large portions of that period and had half of its members purged so definitely also gives a precedent for keeping Tory MPs out of trouble and off the headlines).

[Oryxslayer]

Back after a nap. Forgot who said it yesterday but the sum of these results is basically the following. The Tories (+Reform in some areas) are doing about the same as last year in 2023. However, the opposition votes are more determined to see them lose, and voting gravitation towards the most viable option is higher. Which means in theory Labour are doing better than 2023, which they are in many target councils. But their seat count isn't ending up larger than modeled cause of a small but noticeable number of losses in safe areas.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Street and Houchen will probably be the kings across the water for the conservative party in their rebuilding era right? (Maybe the latter would prefer to stay out of the national media glare, but...)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Based on Private Eye stories, would I be right in thinking Houchen’s appeal is basically that of an old fashioned Italian politician? He’s a crook but he’s a local who gets stuff done?

[Oryxslayer]

Norwich just finished, Labour retook the majority. A possibility but a difficult one. No Muslims, no support for the defectors, which again is yet another potentially interesting tea leaf for Hastings later.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hatch Warren and Beggarwood (Basingstoke and Deane) council election result:

WEP: 61.6% (+61.6)
CON: 25.9% (-16.0)
LAB: 12.5% (-9.4)

First Women's equality Party victory

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was intended that there would be no risk of 'I've seen enough' poasts for the N.E. Mayor, but a decision was made by at least some council officers to break omerta:

https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1786362583995367547

[Duke of York]

It was intended that there would be no risk of 'I've seen enough' poasts for the N.E. Mayor, but a decision was made by at least some council officers to break omerta:

https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1786362583995367547

Was this a by election and hold or gain?

[Oryxslayer]

It was intended that there would be no risk of 'I've seen enough' poasts for the N.E. Mayor, but a decision was made by at least some council officers to break omerta:

https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1786362583995367547

Was this a by election and hold or gain?

That's for the new NE mayor, one (the largest single) area in a race between Labour and the deselected Labour Indie incumbent from the previously smaller mayoralty.

[YL]

You’d expect Driscoll to do worse where he’s not the incumbent, but that lead is surely too big.

[Oryxslayer]

After the Tees Valley mayoral election  a Labour source went on twitter and said Labour don't expect to take the West Midlands cause of Gaza Defectors. But then another source did the same thing and said that source was bullocks and did not speak for the inside mood.

TL:DR: West Midlands doesn't count till tomorrow, and Labour are trying to gauge their support there based on other areas.

IMO, this is all for nothing cause Reform have a candidate here. If Reform do as well in the Black Country as they did in the NE then Labour can lose many more votes than thought. In fact, one of the public polls showed this.

[Torrain]

Tory collapse in Welwyn Hatfield - looks pretty dire for Grant Shapps.

[Oryxslayer]

Tory collapse in Welwyn Hatfield - looks pretty terminal for Grant Shapps.

Labour outperformed the benchmark in Welwyn Hatfield, taking Lib-Dem target seats, meaning they now are the largest part and will likely take leadership from their lib-dem partners.

[Torrain]

Labour claiming victory “comfortably” in the East Midlands mayoral race. Will be interested to see the breakdown, to see if there are any tealeaves to read about Bolsover, Mansfield and Bassetlaw…

[Oryxslayer]

And Labour have taken Hyndburn, nestled between the Muslimm defector zones.


Castle point is now a Tory free zone between the localist PIP (majority) and the Caveny Island Independence (wants their own council) group.

Tories are now expecting to get locked out in Basildon, losing their majority and Lab+Indies work together.

Cambridgeshire P&C was a Tory hold by 2% over Labour, gains for both Labour and Lib-Dems. A clear place where the Tories would lose if the second round was still a thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1786374664236741101

I would be fascinated by a lower level breakdown of this, but it shall never be.

[Oryxslayer]

Burnley. Despite the narrative in other Muslim wards, Labour makes advances against all parts of the defector coalition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That is an Extremely Burnley map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

McGuinness with a small lead in Newcastle. It's a shame that we won't get wards results, though I think I can make a good guess.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbent parties hold their P&C seats in Wales. Tories hold Suffolk by 9%, Greens surprisingly in a distant third.

[Torrain]

Driscoll has conceded in a chat with journalists. Reportedly he immediately pivoted to talking about running again in four years time.