Israel-Gaza war

[Meclazine for Israel]

The only issue that the USA should really take care about on the war are american hostages. If Israel had only preassured on that innitialy...

I don't think there would be many hostages left. The Palestinians would have carved them up long ago.

The legacy of kidnapping women and children and raping and murdering their immediate relatives will not fade in the memory of Israel any time soon.

The blood lust of war fades slowly.

[Comrade Funk]

Thomas Friedman, who is definitely in the Biden orbit, wrote about a week ago that Israel can either choose Rafah or Riyadh. They've chosen Rafah and they will face the inevitable isolation which comes with that.

[CumbrianLefty]

All this, simply so that one man can stay in power.

That is the undeniable bottom line.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Thomas Friedman, who is definitely in the Biden orbit, wrote about a week ago that Israel can either choose Rafah or Riyadh. They've chosen Rafah and they will face the inevitable isolation which comes with that.

No one except Jared Kusher (and apparently Thomas Friedman, very much a washes up has been that never was) cares whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Thomas Friedman, who is definitely in the Biden orbit, wrote about a week ago that Israel can either choose Rafah or Riyadh. They've chosen Rafah and they will face the inevitable isolation which comes with that.

No one except Jared Kusher (and apparently Thomas Friedman, very much a washes up has been that never was) cares whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations

Yep. While I might not go that far, Israel absolutely cares about neutralizing Hamas and ending the war more than they do about relations with Saudi Arabia.

And again, for those who aren't paying attention or ignoring it, Israel just had several of its longtime enemies contribute to its air defense against Iran. It's less isolated than it's ever been!

[Silent Hunter]

Russia hasn't even revoked visa-free access for Israel. Back in the day, the USSR was selling weapons to Egypt and Jordan.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Russia hasn't even revoked visa-free access for Israel. Back in the day, the USSR was selling weapons to Egypt and Jordan.

Russia is in a very odd place in this war, as it has semi-decent relations with Netanyahu and needs him to not start aiding Ukraine.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Regarding the refugee thing, the various Arab governments have long had a choice between being complicit in the displacement of the Palestinians and being complicit in their mistreatment within Palestine. It made some degree of sense that they had a tradition of strongly preferring the latter when that mistreatment didn't rise to the level of Palestinian civilians being blown to smithereens day in and day out, but now that it does, the refusal to change course is 1. very obviously maliciously intended on the part of the Arab governments and 2. just plain strange. This isn't how we assess any other refugee crisis on the planet.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has confirmed the U.S. paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns the country was approaching a decision to launch a full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah

2,000 pound bombs? What is the normal range/size on munitions used in urban and tunnel warfare?

Good to see more breaks are being applied to the Israeli war machine, but still not enough by any means.

And this has been Ben-Gvir's response to us even thinking about pausing shipment of neighborhood destroying bombs,

https://twitter.com/itamarbengvir/status/1788458123436433783

'Hamas Biden' - Ben Gvir, May 9th

And that is why it's really hard to take all the 'You don't care about Palestinians, you're just Pro-Hamas!' types seriously, cause this is the government official version of what y'all sound like.

These kooks have got to go, even though it isn't like the opposition is too much better right now at the very least maybe they'll stop publicly taking dumps on us for the slightest hint of a backbone.

[Silent Hunter]

Regarding the refugee thing, the various Arab governments have long had a choice between being complicit in the displacement of the Palestinians and being complicit in their mistreatment within Palestine. It made some degree of sense that they had a tradition of strongly preferring the latter when that mistreatment didn't rise to the level of Palestinian civilians being blown to smithereens day in and day out, but now that it does, the refusal to change course is 1. very obviously maliciously intended on the part of the Arab governments and 2. just plain strange. This isn't how we assess any other refugee crisis on the planet.

Not really when you consider that the global Islamist movement hates them too.

[Silent Hunter]

]

Yep. While I might not go that far, Israel absolutely cares about neutralizing Hamas and ending the war more than they do about relations with Saudi Arabia.

And again, for those who aren't paying attention or ignoring it, Israel just had several of its longtime enemies contribute to its air defense against Iran. It's less isolated than it's ever been!

Stopping those missiles was in their interest. If hundreds of Israelis had died in those strikes, then the entire region would have gone up in flames.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1788387072589381820?t=9gXvQzyyvQnBSuX3KkO_ag...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Regarding the refugee thing, the various Arab governments have long had a choice between being complicit in the displacement of the Palestinians and being complicit in their mistreatment within Palestine. It made some degree of sense that they had a tradition of strongly preferring the latter when that mistreatment didn't rise to the level of Palestinian civilians being blown to smithereens day in and day out, but now that it does, the refusal to change course is 1. very obviously maliciously intended on the part of the Arab governments and 2. just plain strange. This isn't how we assess any other refugee crisis on the planet.

Not really when you consider that the global Islamist movement hates them too.

Who is "them" here, the Arab governments or the Palestinians?

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1788387072589381820?t=9gXvQzyyvQnBSuX3KkO_ag...

Ryan Grim literally praises Assad and Putin. You lefties should find someone better to promote.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1788387072589381820?t=9gXvQzyyvQnBSuX3KkO_ag...

Ryan Grim literally praises Assad and Putin. You lefties should find someone better to promote.

That doesn't make him wrong here. Broken clocks etc. Plus the Israelis still have a pretty good relationship with Putin, the two countries are very similar.

And didn't you just call MBD a lefty? Lmao.

[Silent Hunter]

Regarding the refugee thing, the various Arab governments have long had a choice between being complicit in the displacement of the Palestinians and being complicit in their mistreatment within Palestine. It made some degree of sense that they had a tradition of strongly preferring the latter when that mistreatment didn't rise to the level of Palestinian civilians being blown to smithereens day in and day out, but now that it does, the refusal to change course is 1. very obviously maliciously intended on the part of the Arab governments and 2. just plain strange. This isn't how we assess any other refugee crisis on the planet.

Not really when you consider that the global Islamist movement hates them too.

Who is "them" here, the Arab governments or the Palestinians?

The Arab governments. They apparently like the Palestinians, but their actions have hurt rather than helped them.

[Beet]

The Arab dictators don't care about the Palestinians. If they did, Israel wouldn't get away with nearly as much as it does today. Bin Salman could've picked up the phone months ago and called Biden and said, "If you don't tell Bibi to stop, I'm gonna do another Oil Embargo and then you can kiss your re-election goodbye", and Biden would've picked up the phone and called Bibi and said, "Cut it the F out, or else" in a truly serious way that would have given Israel pause. Bin Salman cares more about Israeli tech companies investing in the Gulf, humanitarianism be damned. The Egyptian generals care more about their IMF loans to keep the economy afloat for a few more years. Hell, even the Iranians care more about staying out of a regional war so they can keep the mullahs grip on power. And so on. The only difference is how they virtue signal.

Of course, Netanyahu and Biden know this, which is why they have been relatively blase. Only because it's 2024 and Trump is breathing down his neck, Biden has his re-election to worry about, and the kids are really threatening to pull support. Perhaps the only truly good actors in all this are the college kids organizing protests on campuses who got arrested or expelled. They are among the only ones in the world who have actually put skin in the game of helping the people of Gaza. Almost everyone else is cowed.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Arab dictators don't care about the Palestinians. If they did, Israel wouldn't get away with nearly as much as it does today. Bin Salman could've picked up the phone months ago and called Biden and said, "If you don't tell Bibi to stop, I'm gonna do another Oil Embargo and then you can kiss your re-election goodbye", and Biden would've picked up the phone and called Bibi and said, "Cut it the F out, or else" in a truly serious way that would have given Israel pause. Bin Salman cares more about Israeli tech companies investing in the Gulf, humanitarianism be damned. The Egyptian generals care more about their IMF loans to keep the economy afloat for a few more years. Hell, even the Iranians care more about staying out of a regional war so they can keep the mullahs grip on power. And so on. The only difference is how they virtue signal.

Of course, Netanyahu and Biden know this, which is why they have been relatively blase. Only because it's 2024 and Trump is breathing down his neck, Biden has his re-election to worry about, and the kids are really threatening to pull support. Perhaps the only truly good actors in all this are the college kids organizing protests on campuses who got arrested or expelled. They are among the only ones in the world who have actually put skin in the game of helping the people of Gaza. Almost everyone else is cowed.

You are right , if they cared then Jordan would incorporate the West Bank and Egypt would do the same with Gaza .

Anyway no there should not be a ceasefire until Hamas surrenders

[2016]

Here is the thing: If Netanyahu doesn't finish the job and completely obliterates Hamas Israel will have the same problem again 5, 10 years from now if not earlier.

Israel must finish the Job!

[Cashew]

Here is the thing: If Netanyahu doesn't finish the job and completely obliterates Hamas Israel will have the same problem again 5, 10 years from now if not earlier.

Israel must finish the Job!

Finish the job and then what? Have Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank lead by the PA? Or perhaps another more competent armed group untainted by connections to the Muslim Brotherhood rises up and takes over the Gaza Strip? Why in the world would Netenyahu and the Israeli right want to see that happen?

[Dr. MB]

Thomas Friedman, who is definitely in the Biden orbit, wrote about a week ago that Israel can either choose Rafah or Riyadh. They've chosen Rafah and they will face the inevitable isolation which comes with that.

No one except Jared Kusher (and apparently Thomas Friedman, very much a washes up has been that never was) cares whether Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations

Yep. While I might not go that far, Israel absolutely cares about neutralizing Hamas and ending the war more than they do about relations with Saudi Arabia.

And both countries deserve revolutions which will overthrow their current fascist-adjacent governments

[afleitch]

Here is the thing: If Netanyahu doesn't finish the job and completely obliterates Hamas Israel will have the same problem again 5, 10 years from now if not earlier.

Israel must finish the Job!

What's the 'job' exactly?

Hamas don't appear to be 'obliterated'. Gaza has been. Tens of thousands of civilians have been 'obliterated'

Release the hostages? Israeli forces have released 3 through military operations. It killed 3 hostages waving white flags at them. 1 in a botched release. 3 by gas.

105 were released during the temporary ceasefire. Maybe 'finishing the job' could be done through you know, a ceasefire?

[GoTfan]

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has confirmed the U.S. paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns the country was approaching a decision to launch a full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah

2,000 pound bombs? What is the normal range/size on munitions used in urban and tunnel warfare?

Good to see more breaks are being applied to the Israeli war machine, but still not enough by any means.

And this has been Ben-Gvir's response to us even thinking about pausing shipment of neighborhood destroying bombs,

https://twitter.com/itamarbengvir/status/1788458123436433783

'Hamas Biden' - Ben Gvir, May 9th

And that is why it's really hard to take all the 'You don't care about Palestinians, you're just Pro-Hamas!' types seriously, cause this is the government official version of what y'all sound like.

These kooks have got to go, even though it isn't like the opposition is too much better right now at the very least maybe they'll stop publicly taking dumps on us for the slightest hint of a backbone.

If the Israeli government wants to continue making this a partisan issue, they are going to find the next Democratic administration far less friendly, I would say.

[CumbrianLefty]

But that is one significant reason why Netanyahu wants to carry on the war indefinitely, to maximise the chances of a Trump win. If the re-elected Orange Man ever allows the US to have free elections again, given his age Bibi will view any future more hostile Dem administration as not his problem.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I find this an interesting higher-level discussion on this war as far as Biden interaction than we normally get:

David Frum, The Atlantic

Biden making the same error w/r/t Israel that he previously made with Ukraine: trying to micro-manage from a distance somebody else's defensive war by limiting categories of weapons. This error doesn't limit war. This error prolongs war, by denying the ally the means of success.

Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist

A quick word on this. And I say this as someone who has been very critical of Biden for months. But this thread is sort of a funhouse-mirror reality in which Biden has been too restrictive of Israel rather than too indulgent of what has become an aimless war.

Biden hasn't "micro-managed" the war. He gave Israel carte blanche for months of ruinous fighting. Even when it came to Rafah, his position was that America would support an offensive if Israel came up with a plan to evacuate civilians. Which Israel, for months, did not do.

David Frum, The Atlantic

I often think the Biden foreign policy would produce more success if its architects were less clever. "Give the Ukrainians/Israelis enough that they don't lose, but not enough to win" is an idea to baffle all lesser minds.

The micro-management of Israel's war is one part of a much bigger scheme: an Arab force to police Gaza,  reform of the Palestinian Authority, a Saudi-US defense agreement, etc. etc.

Less clever people would have arrived at a simpler plan: fight Hamas until it's beaten.

Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist

Where David Frum is correct is the idea that many of Biden's post-war plans for Gaza were too clever by half. Any observer of the region could have told you they were unlikely to ever come to fruition (many of us have been doing that since October).

But this isn't a binary choice between Biden's fanciful plans and "let Israel fight until victory". Look at the past few months. Israel finds itself going back, over and over, to fight Hamas in areas of northern Gaza it had already conquered (it's doing so again this week).

Why is that? Because Israel withdrew most of its troops without any plan for post-war stabilization and governance. It left a power vacuum Hamas is inevitably trying to fill. Military force without political strategy doesn't mean lasting victory. It means endless whack-a-mole.

Yes, Biden is pursuing unrealistic ideas for post-war Gaza. But Israel isn't pursuing anything at all. Ask almost anyone in the Israeli military, and they will tell you the war has been adrift for months now because Israeli politicians refuse to even talk about what comes next.

If Biden had wanted to "micro-manage" the war, he would have understood months ago—as many analysts did—that the war would not achieve either of its stated objectives so long as Netanyahu refused to contemplate the day after. The logical conclusion from that analysis would be to restrain Israel. But he didn't do that. He indulged months of aimless fighting and expended huge amounts of time and energy trying to ameliorate Israel's own lack of strategic vision. You can call that many things, but "micro-managing" isn't one of them.

For sake of completeness, Frum's final tweet:

Biden will seek re-election in November on a foreign policy record that includes the fiasco of the Afghanistan exit,  inconclusive wars in Europe and Middle East, no new trade agreements. He needed one clear success. Israel's war could have been it. But no. Too simple.