Texas Megathread

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Alarming news for the TX Democrats is that Davis lost several South Texas counties due to her Pro-Choice stance on the abortion controversy.

Yeah, I don't understand why Texas Democrats thought that running a candidate who is most famous for her filibuster against abortion regulation is the best way to win in a red state.

[Reginald]

Alarming news for the TX Democrats is that Davis lost several South Texas counties due to her Pro-Choice stance on the abortion controversy.

Yeah, I don't understand why Texas Democrats thought that running a candidate who is most famous for her filibuster against abortion regulation is the best way to win in a red state.

They had zero chance either way, and it'll be like this for a while at least. Might as well go with someone who actually has some serious name recognition for a change.

[RedSLC]

Alarming news for the TX Democrats is that Davis lost several South Texas counties due to her Pro-Choice stance on the abortion controversy.

No.

[RedSLC]

Badger, I'm NOT trolling you uppity agitator

Then maybe you should try to back up your assertions instead of claiming them as facts.

[windjammer]

Texas Conservative Dem, when will you switch party?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

When are the runoffs?

[RTX]

When are the runoffs?

May 27

[TX Conservative Dem]

The big question is whether Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples (R) will endorse Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) in the runoff for LG.

On State Attorney General: I'm hoping Branch wins due to being endorsed by several law enforcement agencies.

[Indy Texas]

The big question is whether Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples (R) will endorse Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) in the runoff for LG.

On State Attorney General: I'm hoping Branch wins due to being endorsed by several law enforcement agencies.

In the Ag Commissioner race, the candidate with the Farm Bureau and every other agriculture interest group endorsement came in last place. Endorsements from non-ideological groups mean nothing in the modern GOP.

[Vega]

Davis would be Texas' first hot Governor, so....

But seriously, I think her loosing 20% of the vote to some random Mexican dude who never ran a campaign is an omen.

[Bojack Horseman]

Abbott currently leads 53-41. Perry won re-election in 2010 with 55% of the vote, down from 58% in 2002, and then a wacky 4-way race in 2006 where Perry didn't even manage 40% but still finished first,  so it seems maybe within the next few decades Democrats might someday be competitive in Texas again. I'll still never live there though.

[badgate]

Here is a Texas Tribune post mortem on their own poll: http://www.texastribune.org/2014/03/06/polling-center-poll-findings-vs-election-results/

[Kushahontas]

Harvey Hilderbran has dropped out of the Comptroller race making Glenn Hegar, who sponsored the women's health bill in the Senate, the nominee.

[Indy Texas]

Supposedly there has been a lot of pressure on the second-place finishers (Hilderbran for Comptroller, Dewhurst for LiteGuv, Branch for AG) to drop out since in all of these cases the first-place finisher had 40%+ and it's hard to see how the Establishment candidates could pull off comebacks in a low-turnout runoff.

I wouldn't be surprised if Branch withdrew too.

Dewhurst's ego and wealth probably mean he's not going to go quietly. And maybe he has more oppo research he's going to throw at Dan Patrick.

[badgate]

I'd be very surprised if Dewhurst withdrew, same with Branch bc it seems like he really wants to win it.

[jimrtex]

Harvey Hilderbran has dropped out of the Comptroller race making Glenn Hegar, who sponsored the women's health bill in the Senate, the nominee.

Hegar received 49.992% of the vote with 3310 provisional votes.  About 1/2 of these are in Travis, where because of the weather the polls opened at 11 am on Tuesday.  A court order left the polls open until 9 pm, but those voting after 7 pm had to vote provisionally.  Since Hegar had more money, he may have been able to call Travis County voters encouraging them to get out to vote.  He would only need 52.8% of provisionals to receive a majority.

The Republican Party has to run the primaries.  Though it is state funded, funding is rigidly controlled, so they would be interested in holding down costs.  People with $$$ to donate would not be interested in investing in Hilderbran.   Voters for Medina are more likely to vote for Hegar.  Rural voters might be more inclined to vote for Hilderbran, but they already would have done so.  And voters aren't going to turn out to vote for comptroller.

Staples and Patterson were willing to go after Patrick because they were competing for the same voters.  An endorsement of Dewhurst probably would not be that effective.  The only folks who would want the primary fight to go on would be Dewhurst and the Democrats.  What can they offer Patterson or Staples?  And the Democrats prefer Patrick as the Republican

In 2012, Dewhurst led Cruz 44% to 34% in the primary.  Cruz picked up 150,000 votes in the runoff, Dewhurst lost 150,000 and 300,000 didn't vote (the primary had the presidential primary to push turnout).

"Hello, I am Leticia Van De Putte.  I know Wendy Davis and I are not going to win.  But I'll be back in the Senate, and I prefer David Dewhurst as presiding officer.  All that dustup about him not recognizing me at the end of Wendy's filibuster is forgiven.  So I urge Republicans to vote for David Dewhurst." simply won't work.  Taking surreptitious aid from the Democrats, is going to backfire on a Republican electorate.

An AG runoff between Branch and Paxton is not going to hurt the GOP in any way.

[jimrtex]

Here is a Texas Tribune post mortem on their own poll: http://www.texastribune.org/2014/03/06/polling-center-poll-findings-vs-election-results/

They aren't willing to address the essential flaw of their methodology.

Some folks at UT wanted to get into the polling business, and phone polling is too expensive.  But there is no way to match people who use the Internet and are willing to be part of a YouGov panel, with those who have similar demographics but don't.

[badgate]

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous. Based on early vote numbers I actually think Rogers picked up votes bc of the misguided Tribune assertion that she was the frontrunner.

[jimrtex]

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous. Based on early vote numbers I actually think Rogers picked up votes bc of the misguided Tribune assertion that she was the frontrunner.

Democrats might have got scared and put a little effort into GOTV.  Otherwise, they probably would be saving money for November.

The senate race is top of the ballot, and the Democrats don't want voters to not straight ticket vote, or try to explain how to vote "Democratic" and then vote for Cornyn or try to un-vote for Rogers (it is possible to vote straight ticket vote and then intentionally not vote for anyone in a particular race, but it is not obvious).

Van de Putte did go after Friedman, but they might not want to have drawn attention to Rogers.

[badgate]

[TX Conservative Dem]

Branch will NOT drop out ever !

[jimrtex]

Branch will NOT drop out ever !

Who is going to contribute any money to him?

[Indy Texas]

Branch should tell the Tea Party Useful Idiots backing Paxton to suck an egg.

And he should tell Jonathan Stickland to go back and finish high school before he goes meddling in an election he isn't a candidate in.

[Deus Naturae]

Davis pushes Abbott to clarify his position on equal pay legislation.

[badgate]

Davis pushes Abbott to clarify his position on equal pay legislation.

She's been doing a good job with this. It's a losing issue for Abbott because:

1) He defended the state in court against an A&M University professor suing over her pay, and in particular exploited holes in the federal Ledbetter law to win the case.

2) He (so far) refuses to say if he would have vetoed the state-wide Ledbetter bill, which Perry vetoed. This bill was authored by Davis, and addressed holes from the federal law and allowed women to sue in state court, which is less expensive.

3) He has said that we don't need a state-wide law but his actions as AG show exactly why we do.

4) If he says he would NOT veto the bill, he has flip flopped and would piss off some supporters for looking like he caved to Davis.

I may edit this post when I think of the other thing I was going to say, which has slipped my mind.