CNN/Time/ORC (LV): FL Obama +4, NC Romney +1

[Likely Voter]

CNN/Time Opinion Research state polls

Likely Voters

Florida
Obama: 50
Romney: 46

North Carolina
Obama: 47
Romney: 48


Registered Voters

Florida
Obama: 51
Romney: 42

North Carolina
Obama: 48
Romney: 46


Methodology:
The CNN/Time poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Florida adults, including 895 registered voters and 776 likely voters, questioned by telephone. In North Carolina, 1,019 adults, including 905 registered voters and 766 likely voters, questioned by phone. The sampling error in both surveys for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

LINK

Edited to show RV

[Supersonic]

This poll had more registered voters than likely voters, therefore it's a tad deceiving to label it '(LV)'.

[MorningInAmerica]

If you're Obama you have to be somewhat happy with these two polls. Anytime NC looks like a near tie, it's a pretty safe bet the Democrat is leading to some extent nationally.

[Lief 🗽]

Solid numbers.

[xavier110]

This poll had more registered voters than likely voters, therefore it's a tad deceiving to label it '(LV)'.

huh

[MorningInAmerica]

Interesting to Romney winning whites 56-38% in Florida, though still losing by 4% overall. In 2008, when the Republican ticket lost in Florida by 3 points, McCain won the white vote 56-42%.

[pa2011]

good numbers for Obama. North Carolina numbers  suggest Obama is up about 5 in Virginia.  Sort of wonder if this is the election where we see Florida tilt more D  than the past due to demographic changes.  Saw a line in a Politico story that was striking -- While Gore won Orange County by 5,700 votes in 2000, Obama won it by 86,000 in 2008. Article attributed the gain to a surge in the Puerto Rican population there.

[MorningInAmerica]

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[Sbane]

Interesting to Romney winning whites 56-38% in Florida, though still losing by 4% overall. In 2008, when the Republican ticket lost in Florida by 3 points, McCain won the white vote 56-42%.

Maybe more Puerto Ricans and Mexicans voting who are more Democratic than Cubans. And perhaps young Cubans are more Democratic which leads to shifts in that demographic as well. Also subsample margin of error of course.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Interesting to Romney winning whites 56-38% in Florida, though still losing by 4% overall. In 2008, when the Republican ticket lost in Florida by 3 points, McCain won the white vote 56-42%.

Old Cubans, the GOP's nonwhite base in Florida, are literally dying out. Young Cubans lean Democratic.

[ajc0918]

Interesting to Romney winning whites 56-38% in Florida, though still losing by 4% overall. In 2008, when the Republican ticket lost in Florida by 3 points, McCain won the white vote 56-42%.

Old Cubans, the GOP's nonwhite base in Florida, are literally dying out. Young Cubans lean Democratic.

This is correct.

[Yank2133]

Nice to see NC and FL are still in play.....I still think they go to Mitt in the fall though.

[PittsburghSean]

This is a good sign for the president to have North Carolina in play. If the turnout among African Americans and college students is high (and there are no photo ID laws there), then Obama could squeak it out. That said, I still have a feeling Romney wins it in the end by a couple of points.

As for Florida, this should be a Romney state right now. I think it might actually be leaning Obama now. If Obama wins Florida, then Romney's got no shot unless he can pick up Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (assuming the west goes Obama).