Targeting 75 House seats?

[Notre Dame rules!]

Auric Goldfinger in right. 

I don't see any dramatic shift to either party, though I do see the GOP picking up an additional 4-5 seats, as the Dems base continues to erode.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Northrupe and Renzi didn't face any serious opposition in 2004.

[nini2287]

Our chances for the two Connecticut seats aren't that great, we blew our chance in 2004 (although personally I would have voted for both Simmons and Shays, and probably Johnson as well) with Kerry and Dodd on the ticket.  In 2006, any Lieberman effect will be cancelled out by Rell being on the top of the ticket.  I doubt we can pick up any CT seats in 2006, 2008-maybe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Our chances for the two Connecticut seats aren't that great, we blew our chance in 2004 (although personally I would have voted for both Simmons and Shays, and probably Johnson as well) with Kerry and Dodd on the ticket.  In 2006, any Lieberman effect will be cancelled out by Rell being on the top of the ticket.  I doubt we can pick up any CT seats in 2006, 2008-maybe.

Ticket spliting between federal and state races is pretty common. Almost every heavily Democratic state currently has a GOP governor.

[nini2287]

Our chances for the two Connecticut seats aren't that great, we blew our chance in 2004 (although personally I would have voted for both Simmons and Shays, and probably Johnson as well) with Kerry and Dodd on the ticket.  In 2006, any Lieberman effect will be cancelled out by Rell being on the top of the ticket.  I doubt we can pick up any CT seats in 2006, 2008-maybe.

Ticket spliting between federal and state races is pretty common. Almost every heavily Democratic state currently has a GOP governor.

That's two but Shays' and Simmons' politics are on par with Rell's and aren't too far off from Connecticut's overall politics, so I think people won't have a reason to vote out either of those two Reps.

[Virginian87]

Our chances for the two Connecticut seats aren't that great, we blew our chance in 2004 (although personally I would have voted for both Simmons and Shays, and probably Johnson as well) with Kerry and Dodd on the ticket.  In 2006, any Lieberman effect will be cancelled out by Rell being on the top of the ticket.  I doubt we can pick up any CT seats in 2006, 2008-maybe.

Ticket spliting between federal and state races is pretty common. Almost every heavily Democratic state currently has a GOP governor.

That's two but Shays' and Simmons' politics are on par with Rell's and aren't too far off from Connecticut's overall politics, so I think people won't have a reason to vote out either of those two Reps.

Might be a problem for Shays is the New London Submarine Base is closed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might be a problem for Shays is the New London Submarine Base is closed.

IIRC New London is in Simmons' district (eastern CT). Shays' district is Bridgeport and the NY Exurbs.

[Virginian87]

Might be a problem for Shays is the New London Submarine Base is closed.

IIRC New London is in Simmons' district (eastern CT). Shays' district is Bridgeport and the NY Exurbs.

Oops.  Well, then it's Simmons who's in trouble.  I don't know about Shays.  Those areas of Southwest Connecticut tend to be pretty upscale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oops.  Well, then it's Simmons who's in trouble.  I don't know about Shays.  Those areas of Southwest Connecticut tend to me pretty upscale.

I could be wrong but the only reason why Shays nearly lost in 2004 was probably to do with high(er) turnout in Bridgeport.
Simmons' district really shouldn't have a GOP rep to start with...

[A18]

The GOP didn't take out 50+ Dems in '94. They got 30-something (34?) in a once-in-a-generation, maybe not even that likely, event.

I don't know about incumbents, but this indicates a net pickup of 54 (108 swing).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994

[Sam Spade]

The GOP didn't take out 50+ Dems in '94. They got 30-something (34?) in a once-in-a-generation, maybe not even that likely, event.

I don't know about incumbents, but this indicates a net pickup of 54 (108 swing).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994

True, though most of the victories were localized.  Most of the switches occurred in the South or in Washington State, where I think there was something like a 7-seat switch, which went back to being evenly split later.

[Virginian87]

The GOP didn't take out 50+ Dems in '94. They got 30-something (34?) in a once-in-a-generation, maybe not even that likely, event.

I don't know about incumbents, but this indicates a net pickup of 54 (108 swing).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994

True, though most of the victories were localized.  Most of the switches occurred in the South or in Washington State, where I think there was something like a 7-seat switch, which went back to being evenly split later.

I find it amazing that the House Speaker lost his seat in that election, especially since Nethercutt broke his promise on term limits.  What happened there to cause that?

[Sam Spade]

The GOP didn't take out 50+ Dems in '94. They got 30-something (34?) in a once-in-a-generation, maybe not even that likely, event.

I don't know about incumbents, but this indicates a net pickup of 54 (108 swing).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994

True, though most of the victories were localized.  Most of the switches occurred in the South or in Washington State, where I think there was something like a 7-seat switch, which went back to being evenly split later.

I find it amazing that the House Speaker lost his seat in that election, especially since Nethercutt broke his promise on term limits.  What happened there to cause that?

Well, obviously no one knew Nethercutt was going to break his election promise before he did, so I doubt that could be an issue. 

Honestly, I don't know much about what caused such a crazy shift in Washington State in 1994, especially since it wasn't mirrored by Oregon or any surrounding states and I really don't think it had anything to do with the Southern movement.  Maybe it had to do with the corruption issues that got Rostenkowski.

Maybe Alcon or Vorlon knows.  Thoughts?

[Alcon]

I was four.  All I remember about that year was that I didn't like one kid who put chewing gum on the playground equipment.

Maybe Vorlon knows.

[A18]

The GOP didn't take out 50+ Dems in '94. They got 30-something (34?) in a once-in-a-generation, maybe not even that likely, event.

I don't know about incumbents, but this indicates a net pickup of 54 (108 swing).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994

True, though most of the victories were localized. Most of the switches occurred in the South or in Washington State, where I think there was something like a 7-seat switch, which went back to being evenly split later.

I count only ~29 pickups in the South (using the most broad definition).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC Nethercutt ran a very negative localised campaign (I think "neglecting the district" might have been used. You get the idea) and Foley was too busy in other vunerable districts (Foley didn't win by much in 1992) to do much about it.
The result was extremely close and had Foley done what so many other defeated Congressmen did (Strickland, Price etc) and run again in 1996 he'd have won. He didn't for obvious reasons though...
Shame really... Foley always came across as a decent guy.

[A18]

Where were the 25 non-southern pickups?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where were the 25 non-southern pickups?

I seem to recall that Washington, Ohio and Indiana made most of the non-Dixie losses. Could be wrong. I know that PA for one was kinda a draw in terms of House seats; GOP regained PA-13 (the old seat; based around Mongomery county) and the Dems regained PA-18 (the old seat; based around the eastern Pittsburgh inner burbs). Dems nearly gained the Erie district as well, but English held it for the GOP by the skin of his teeth.

[nini2287]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

It's on the Clerk of the House's site. Not looked at it for a while so I can't give an exact link.

[Alcon]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

It's on the Clerk of the House's site. Not looked at it for a while so I can't give an exact link.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/house/
Hope that helps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

It's on the Clerk of the House's site. Not looked at it for a while so I can't give an exact link.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/house/
Hope that helps.

Aah... I thought he meant 1994. http://psephos.adam-carr.net is also worth a look.

[Alcon]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

It's on the Clerk of the House's site. Not looked at it for a while so I can't give an exact link.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/house/
Hope that helps.

Aah... I thought he meant 1994. http://psephos.adam-carr.net is also worth a look.

Oh, he may have.  Sorry.

[nini2287]

Does anybody have a list of the results by house seat?

It's on the Clerk of the House's site. Not looked at it for a while so I can't give an exact link.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/house/
Hope that helps.

Aah... I thought he meant 1994. http://psephos.adam-carr.net is also worth a look.

Oh, he may have.  Sorry.

Sorry, I was looking for 1994, I have the CNN site bookmarked lol.   On the Adam Carr one, I could only find it back to 1998 for the House and further back for the Senate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry, I was looking for 1994, I have the CNN site bookmarked lol.   On the Adam Carr one, I could only find it back to 1998 for the House and further back for the Senate.

Try http://clerk.house.gov
I think there are summary of gains v losses by state here http://www.fec.gov/