New Tradesports rankings

[© tweed]

Fred Thompson's last transaction is at 8.3.  (wtf)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Republican only update. The flavor of the week not only supports the surge, but is surging. 8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running. 

Republicans
Giuliani 48.1
McCain 24.0
Romney 16.7
F. Thompson 8.3
Gingrich 5.5
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

How long before his odds at winning the GOP nomination surpass Edwards's odds for the Dem. nomination?

We're not quite there yet.  But at the rate things are going, the answer to my question might turn out to be "a few hours".

[Rob]

8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running.

It speaks volumes about the wretched Republican field. They're desperately searching for a candidate who won't lose too badly next year.

[Verily]

Edwards below Gore? Yikes!

It's been that way for a while, since a couple of days before the Oscars.

[Rob]

No, my point is that Thompson wouldn't be surging if these people didn't think he had a serious chance, and they wouldn't think he had a chance if the existing field was satisfactory.

[WalterMitty]

F. Thompson has been added to the long list of Republicans with over 0.1%.

Democrats
Clinton 44.2
Obama 29.9
Gore 12.4
Edwards 8.6
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 25.4
Romney 18.3
Gingrich 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 3.0
Brownback 2.7
F. Thompson 2.0
Bloomberg 1.8
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

are you kidding me?  dodd, a leader on health issues, has the same odds of winning the nomination as two guys that have announced they arent running!?!?!

cmon democrats.  get over the platitudes of obama and move to a proven leader.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democratic side has little change.
On the Republican side, Gingrich, Hagel, and Thompson form a strong 2nd tier of candidates who haven't announced.

Democrats
Clinton 44.3
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 17.0
F. Thompson 7.4
Hagel 6.3
Gingrich 5.1
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Owens 0.1
Allen 0.1

[Reignman]

I'm surprised F. Thompson is as high as he is.

[Verily]

Gore is easing out now. No one is the clear beneficiary.

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of activity today.  Obama and especially Giuliani keep surging.  (It might not be long before Giuliani's odds at the GOP nomination exceed Clinton's odds at the Dem. nomination.)  Meanwhile, Gore, Romney, and Hagel are cratering.  Maybe Thompson's odds won't surpass Edwards's, as I anticipated, but they could soon pass Gore's.

I'm still wondering though, if Thompson sits at 7.1 when he hasn't even made a decision on whether to run, where will his price be if he announces?  If he announced tomorrow, I think he'd easily pass Romney.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democratic side still boring.
Record high for Giuliani.
McCain is probably at the lowest since 2005.
Romney and indecisive Hagel tanking.
Rice and Bloomberg continue to be overvalued.

Democrats
Clinton 44.5
Obama 29.5
Gore 11.7
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 5.3
Hagel 3.6
Brownback 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.3

[TomC]

I'm surprised F. Thompson is as high as he is.

He'll be even higher. Bet on it.

[Reaganfan]

8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running.

It speaks volumes about the wretched Republican field. They're desperately searching for a candidate who won't lose too badly next year.

Um...do you think Giuliani and McCain and Thompson would lose "badly" against any of the big three democrats? I can see scenarios, sure...but even though the popular belief should be towards the democrats...I think republicans have stronger candidates running.

[Verily]

Something interesting; VP candidates:

Warner 22.5
Obama 22.0
Richardson 20.5
Clark 12.5
Bayh 11.0
Webb 8.0
Edwards 7.0
H. Clinton 5.0
Gore 3.8
Nunn 2.5

Pawlenty 17.5
Rice 14.7
Romney 14.5
Huckabee 8.0
McCain 7.5
Giuliani 7.1
Graham 7.0
J. Bush 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Hutchison 3.0

Some of those are really skewed; Romney, Clinton and Rice would be liabilities as VP candidates and are highly unlikely. I also can't see Bush or McCain or Gingrich or Edwards as a VP candidate.

[TomC]

8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running.

It speaks volumes about the wretched Republican field. They're desperately searching for a candidate who won't lose too badly next year.

Um...do you think Giuliani and McCain and Thompson would lose "badly" against any of the big three democrats? I can see scenarios, sure...but even though the popular belief should be towards the democrats...I think republicans have stronger candidates running.

Giuliani has the family values of Warren Beatty (he can't keep a family together and you want to give him the free world. LOL) and McCain has gone from being an intense hot head to more docile than Mr. Rogers.  The Dems would destroy either. You should hope it's Fred.


Yeah, from electoralvote.com:

"Rudy Giuliani scores well in national polls, but it is almost inconceivable that he could get the Republican nomination. Here's the ad Karl Rove will use against him: "So, it took him 14 years to realize he had married his second cousin, at which time he asked for an annulment. It could happen to anyone. Then he married a beautiful actress. When his beautiful actress wife got tired of his publicly cheating on her, first with his communications director, Christyne Lategano, then with his soon-to-be third wife, a divorced nurse, she kicked him out of the house, so he moved in with his best friends, a rich, loving gay couple living on Manhattan's chic upper east side." Throw in Giuliani's longstanding support of abortion, gay rights, and gun control, and to the Republican activists who vote in primaries, he might as well be the former mayor of Sodom and Gomorrah. He could become president though. All he has to do is become a Democrat. Imagine, a pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun tough guy former prosecutor. He'd give Hillary a real run for her money. Although he is doing well in national polls, just wait until his interpretation of family values becomes better known."

[Reaganfan]

8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running.

It speaks volumes about the wretched Republican field. They're desperately searching for a candidate who won't lose too badly next year.

Um...do you think Giuliani and McCain and Thompson would lose "badly" against any of the big three democrats? I can see scenarios, sure...but even though the popular belief should be towards the democrats...I think republicans have stronger candidates running.

Giuliani has the family values of Warren Beatty (he can't keep a family together and you want to give him the free world. LOL) and McCain has gone from being an intense hot head to more docile than Mr. Rogers.  The Dems would destroy either. You should hope it's Fred.


Yeah, from electoralvote.com:

"Rudy Giuliani scores well in national polls, but it is almost inconceivable that he could get the Republican nomination. Here's the ad Karl Rove will use against him: "So, it took him 14 years to realize he had married his second cousin, at which time he asked for an annulment. It could happen to anyone. Then he married a beautiful actress. When his beautiful actress wife got tired of his publicly cheating on her, first with his communications director, Christyne Lategano, then with his soon-to-be third wife, a divorced nurse, she kicked him out of the house, so he moved in with his best friends, a rich, loving gay couple living on Manhattan's chic upper east side." Throw in Giuliani's longstanding support of abortion, gay rights, and gun control, and to the Republican activists who vote in primaries, he might as well be the former mayor of Sodom and Gomorrah. He could become president though. All he has to do is become a Democrat. Imagine, a pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun tough guy former prosecutor. He'd give Hillary a real run for her money. Although he is doing well in national polls, just wait until his interpretation of family values becomes better known."

It would be something else if national security trumped all those issues. Keep in mind, this is the first Republican Primary post-September 11th. Things are different than in 2000.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain has now dropped to 20.0....lowest since 2005.  Also, Edwards is ahead of Gore again.

[Verily]

McCain has made a rapid recovery to 22.5. Thompson has cooled a bit to 6.2. Gingrich and Romney are still in freefall, and Hagel is popular. Obama had reached a record high of 32.9 but then dropped back down to around 30 again. Gore is back ahead of Edwards but well below his previous scores (9.9 to 9.7).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama was over 31 earlier.
Edwards is catching up with Gore.
Warner is overvalued.
The last week has been terrible for both McCain and Romney.
A lot of the minor Republican candidates go down, including flavor of the week Fred Thompson.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 29.6
Gore 9.9
Edwards 9.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Warner 0.5
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 22.5
Romney 14.0
F. Thompson 6.2
Hagel 4.4
Gingrich 3.8
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Since, obviously, a presidential nominee can't choose himself (or herself) to be VP, but has to pick someone else, you can get the Intrade "odds that a candidate will be *either* the presidential or vice presidential nominee" simply by adding the presidential and vice presidential odds for that candidate.  Probability that each of the following will be on their party's ticket, either in the #1 spot or the #2 spot, as derived from Intrade prices:

Obama 54.4
Clinton 49.9
Richardson 24.5
Edwards 16.4
Gore 13.9
Clark 12.9
Warner 10.3

Giuliani 47.5
McCain 30.5
Romney 30.5
Pawlenty 17.6
Rice 14.0
Gingrich 12.0
Bush 10.4
Huckabee 10.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A new record high for Giuliani. Romney continues to sink. Maybe some people got confused and thought that Tommy Thompson was the flavor of the week.

Democrats
Clinton 44.7
Obama 30.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.8
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 13.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe some people got confused and thought that Tommy Thompson was the flavor of the week.

Either that, or they're counting on Tommy getting some publicity from the inevitable "two Thompsons in the race" news stories.  Or else they're counting on voter confusion.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

State probability map

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama hit a new record high of 31.9 earlier today. His gain seems to have come at Gore and Edwards, and not Clinton's expense.

Not much change on the Republican side, with Romney, Rice, and Paul having gains.

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 31.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Paul 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2