UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 16, 2024, 11:31:21 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 276878 times)
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« on: February 03, 2015, 05:41:02 PM »

Seeing that the Ashcroft polls are suggesting that Margaret Curran could lose her Glasgow East seat - which would be at least a 19% swing. The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.
Really? For a record swing that is spectacularly low.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John's_East
2006: Conservative beats Liberal by 5
2008: NDP beats Liberal by 62 (Conservatives in third)
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2015, 11:23:16 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2015, 11:36:05 AM by New Canadaland »

As we all know, the GOP has an advantage with House seats because Dems tend to be packed in urban districts, leading to a vote waste that swamps whatever the lower turnout may be (particularly in Hispanic seats).  My impression is that the Tories do not have such an advantage in the UK. What is the Reader's Digest version as to why, assuming my assumption is correct?  Is the key the role of the Liberal Democrats?

Urban Labour seats have lower turnout (poorer/more immigrants), so Labour's vote total ends up being lower than what would be expected. But unlike in the US, the margin of victory in Tory seats are about the same as Labour, so the Tories don't have that advantage. Just look at how the Labour advantage in London is only 8-10 points, so Labour won't have many overwhelming victories in urban areas.

Scotland is one place where the Labour vote *used to be much more efficiently spread out, so that's one place where Labour had a vote efficiency advantage.
*until the SNP came along
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 6.772 seconds with 13 queries.