If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, how much of a "class vote" will there be?
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  If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, how much of a "class vote" will there be?
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Author Topic: If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, how much of a "class vote" will there be?  (Read 714 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: February 04, 2016, 04:27:33 PM »
« edited: February 04, 2016, 04:29:17 PM by King of Kensington »

I take a Sanders coalition would look like say, the British Labour Party electorate, with fewer affluent voters even if they're "liberal" (it seems that modern day American liberalism is more defined by social liberalism rather than economic stances).  He would have to do significantly better with working class voters in order to make up for this.  

He's not going to be getting 65% of the vote in rich sections of Westchester County etc.

Likely a third party pro-business centrist would take a lot of the socially liberal rich vote.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2016, 04:29:51 PM »

Plenty of affluent voters support Sanders.  I think his coalition would look pretty much the same as Obama or Clinton, just with slightly higher turnout with some constituencies than others.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2016, 04:44:38 PM »

Are wealthy Americans significantly more left-wing than wealthy Canadians, Australians, Brits and Western Europeans?  Or is it just because the Republican alternative is unpalatable?  I suspect the latter.

It's hard to know because the Democrats are a liberal party with social democratic elements, which is why places like Scarsdale, Chevy Chase, Marin County etc. the Dems pile up votes.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2016, 05:01:47 PM »

Or is it just because the Republican alternative is unpalatable?

This.

I currently live in a region of Washington State known as the Eastside, i.e. the wealthy eastern suburbs of Seattle.  The voters out here tend to be affluent, white, highly educated, socially secular, and very anti-tax.  If this was British Columbia, this would be a solid BC Liberal constituency.  In the UK, they would probably support the Lib Dems or the Tories.  In Australia this would be a solid Liberal constituency.

But this is America.  Historically, this region was Republican-leaning, but the religious right bent of the national GOP has really turned off voters out here.  So while the more socially liberal state GOP can compete, the region has gone 60-65% for Obama both times and voted Democrat by similar margins in other federal elections. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2016, 05:02:40 PM »

He won't turn WV red and CT blue, for sure, but there could be some interesting swings.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2016, 05:18:00 PM »

Didn't Obama lose a lot of votes in the "gold coast" of Connecticut in 2012 (albeit not enough to lose the state)? 
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2016, 05:24:03 PM »

Didn't Obama lose a lot of votes in the "gold coast" of Connecticut in 2012 (albeit not enough to lose the state)? 

I haven't actually looked at the numbers, but I think Romney was relatively strong with wealthy moderate Northeastern types.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if this was largely the effect of a return to normalcy after 2004 (Kerry overperformed in New England) and 2008 (a wave election).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2016, 05:48:28 PM »

I currently live in a region of Washington State known as the Eastside, i.e. the wealthy eastern suburbs of Seattle.  The voters out here tend to be affluent, white, highly educated, socially secular, and very anti-tax. 

How appealing would Sanders be to this group?
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2016, 06:15:49 PM »

How appealing would Sanders be to this group?

I don't see why he'd perform much worse than Generic Democrat, especially since the three GOP frontrunners are not likely to appeal to these voters at all.
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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2016, 06:36:30 PM »

It depends on who he's up against. I could see it looking a little more like a British election than usual if he's against Kasich, but not so much if he's against Cruz or Trump. I'm not really sure about Rubio.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2016, 06:38:11 PM »

Sanders would get more affluent voters than ever before, and it wouldn't even show up in the crosstabs.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2016, 06:48:44 PM »

The Dems are basically a "popular front" type party, running from socially moderate pro-business types to democratic socialists, pretty much has been since the 1990s.

Not sure if the "liberal wing of the bourgeoisie" however will happily sit by with Sanders as the standard bearer however.  Bloomberg is polling pretty low, but this is the group he's likely to pull from.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2016, 06:50:03 PM »

Lol, the GOP hasn't even started on him yet. Let's not get too excited about some revolution among working class whites.
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The Free North
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2016, 06:54:58 PM »

Didn't Obama lose a lot of votes in the "gold coast" of Connecticut in 2012 (albeit not enough to lose the state)? 

Well, he won the diverse, larger, and poorer towns in Fairfield County. He lost the whiter and wealthier towns by fairly large margins.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2016, 06:57:11 PM »

The Dems are basically a "popular front" type party, running from socially moderate pro-business types to democratic socialists, pretty much has been since the 1990s.

Not sure if the "liberal wing of the bourgeoisie" however will happily sit by with Sanders as the standard bearer however.  Bloomberg is polling pretty low, but this is the group he's likely to pull from.

Bloomberg isn't running, and even if he did, he wouldn't get more than a couple percentage points.  Third party and independent candidates have been actively and completely frozen out of the system since Perot.  

I also think you seriously overestimate the perception gap between Sanders and Clinton.  The "billionayuh class" is never going to back Sanders, but plenty of affluent voters would have no problem supporting him.  I think the idea that there is a significant class gap between the two candidates is really overstated.  Just like the marriage gap, it's almost entirely a function of Sanders' support being really really young.  
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Camaro33
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2016, 10:10:36 PM »

I reside in one of those white wealthy CT Fairfield County towns. Romney won virtually every town in the county, albeit by small margins, except for Bridgeport (minority majority) which was a blowout, and consequently, he lost the county my a noticeable margin. The same thing happened in 2014 for the governors election. If it weren't for Bridgeport and maybe Hartford, Connecticut would be relatively competitive. But the same can be said about any other state if you take away their biggest city.


Didn't Obama lose a lot of votes in the "gold coast" of Connecticut in 2012 (albeit not enough to lose the state)? 

Well, he won the diverse, larger, and poorer towns in Fairfield County. He lost the whiter and wealthier towns by fairly large margins.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2016, 10:40:15 PM »

Bernie is probably in trouble with the crucial billionaire vote.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2016, 01:50:03 PM »

Bernie is probably in trouble with the crucial billionaire vote.

It's not about the billionaire vote.  I'm asking how different the composition of his vote would be.
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