Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

Yeah, well, one day he will grow out of it. Its best just to ignore the total hypocrisy of the alt-right. They will make their own bed and lay in it. I just hope they go back to being non-voters when they realise its a sham.

I see, I ran into two real experts with lots of arguments ;-)

Nevertheless, thanks for your long answer above, it doesn't really answer my basic question but at least you tried.

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

Thank you, always astonishing that These hard-core Christians are doing anything to get their culture abolished and destroyed.

[Klartext89]

As I expected, the VVD has today reached a new stage in its campaign by moving to the right and talking tough after excluding the PVV. In a "letter to the Dutch people", widely published today, Mark Rutte states that "something is going on with our country" and denounces "those who came to our country for our freedom yet now abuse those freedoms", "people who don't want to adapt to our society and dismiss our traditions and values, "I understand very well that many people think: if you dismiss our country in such a fundamental way, I'd prefer you leave. That's how I feel too. Either behave yourself or leave." This is a recurring theme on the Dutch center right and reminiscent of Balkenende's talk on "norms and values" which went over very well among generic right-wingers in the suburbs. The cynic in me also notes that this is not and will never be tied to actual policies: Rutte is merely selling feelings. At the same time he also denounces "those who want to divide our society" (=Wilders) and ends his letter with stating that despite everything, he wouldn't want to live anywhere else. "Would you?"

Rutte seeks to present himself as a tough-talking PM who "tells it like it is" yet at the same time as a Prime Ministerial, responsible leader who denounces everything that can be seen as divisive. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will work, but my gut feeling says it just may. At the same time, Buma/Pechtold will attack him on the continuation of the "piss off" theme (which he said in a tv show in October referring to immigrant youth harassing people) and Wilders will attack him on the fact that he doesn't actually propose anything to make people "piss off" and that his statements are not tied to actual proposals for policies. Opinion polls show that people view Rutte as the "lesser evil" and prefer him as PM over most other party leaders, yet at the same time do not believe him: he has a real credibility problem. Still, the VVD's campaign seems to be improving.

Also astonishing that these just talk no action policy of the European center-right parties are working so well in election campaigns... Just like John McCain: campaigning like a Conservative, governing like a Liberal.

Amazing stuff: "We're talking like PVV, and yeah they are right in basically every case, but we want to work with the left parties who disagree with everything we just said" lmao

[Klartext89]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

Big mistake to leave the coalition in 2012, no question.

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

Thank you, always astonishing that These hard-core Christians are doing anything to get their culture abolished and destroyed.

Not really, they have more in common with hardcore Muslims than they do with secular atheists.

Some are thinking that, yeah. But I think that's a myth, cause hardcore Muslims don't allow any other form of religion beside Islam.

[Klartext89]

Hey David,

hope it's not an unfair question, but why on earth are Dutch polls so different?

You have Peil.nl from DeHondt which expects a large PVV lead, you have DeStemming which says a solid PVV lead, you have TNS NIPO which has a narrow PVV lead and you have Ipsos which have it tied.

Pretty big differences through.

[Klartext89]

Hey David,

hope it's not an unfair question, but why on earth are Dutch polls so different?

You have Peil.nl from DeHondt which expects a large PVV lead, you have DeStemming which says a solid PVV lead, you have TNS NIPO which has a narrow PVV lead and you have Ipsos which have it tied.

Pretty big differences through.

Yes, this is a problem. It is clear pollsters' samples simply aren't representative, and, in contravention of the AAPOR Code of Ethics for pollsters, most of them are very vague about the ways in which they compose their samples. They try to make up for that by weighing, but you have to ask yourself whether they know what they are doing. I personally use the Peilingwijzer to get an impression of where parties actually stand (with the caveat that the Peilingwijzer is inevitably going to be wrong if all polls are) and use the polls only for the trends.

I think the large number of non-small, "competitive" parties and the extremely high volatility of the Dutch electorate (compared to other countries in Western Europe) make polling harder in this country. Polling PVV voters is also very difficult, partly because it's still not a socially accepted choice and partly because it appears to be harder to find these voters in the first place. But yes, the pollsters' "house effects" make it much harder to determine which party is at what level of support.

Thank you!

Also the fact that the results are presented in seats is a problem. Got a screenshot from a friend yesterday. He celebrated 33% for Wilders PVV, what was really written in German BILD. I had to clearify him that it's 33 seats not percentage... Well... #FakeNews by the media...

[Klartext89]

I didn't interpret it as an attack or insult against PVV supporters, so I'm a bit surprised by MAINEiac and agree with David.

My first thoughts were that it shall say that VVD wants to remember on "Dutch values" and is aimed at Muslims.

"Being able to walk hand in hand without fear. Very normal." --> no attacks on gays (from Muslims)

"Kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital. Not normal." --> I doubt that PVV supporters are kicking ambulance first responders into the hospital... We all know which "problem group" does ;-)

"Being taught at home that you have to respect the police. Very normal." --> Surely not against PVV supporters, maybe against radical Leftists and of course the "problem group".

"Putting your arm around someone else. Very normal." --> like the first slogan.

"Pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis. Very normal." --> Well... Stands for it self. Funny that a ruling party is aknowledging that the country is in crisis...


Don't get me wrong, the marketing firm getting lots of money for that uninspired work should be fired... The Statements are generalities which stand for everything and nothing. No Vision to see...

But I still can't see why it's like "deplorables" comments?

[Klartext89]

Of course its aimed at conservative Muslims. Its basic securitisation from Rutte. However those kind of behaviours can equally be attributed to tokkies* in Duindorp, the part of Den Haag Germans never visit. Try to keep up Klartext.

The irony is that the far right have always undermined gay rights and liberal democratic values, but the PVV is pretending to be a defender of them and in doing so attract the fearful. In that respect VVD are far more legitimate defender of liberal democratic values.

I think this is the first time they are going to campaign on social or cultural values rather than their usually tax deductions though.

*deplorables in Dutch

Well, my uncle is Dutch (and my aunt since they married 30 years ago, too), so I guess I can keep on talking about Dutch politics. What are your credentials?

"Conservative Muslims" lol, nice try.

Comparing Muslim behaviour with all the murderer, terrorism, extremism going on in their community to any not-Muslim Group only Shows how completely out of touch with reality you are. Ok, maybe compare it to AntiFa or other left-wing terror groups but that's it.

The way bigger irony is that the Left always wanted to be the defender of gay rights and Jews and is importing millions of gay/jew-hating people. But hey, it's about diversity, who cares about facts :-D The only parties to defend the liberal tradition of Europe are the right-wing parties. And to make it clear: Even Conservatives like me would rather march on CSD than live in a Kalifat.

[Klartext89]

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

Good news! Wilders on course to get a big lead.

[Klartext89]

Sorry, haven't noticed the problem before...

In other (real) news, pollster Kantar (formerly TNS NIPO) found that among 18 to 25-year olds, 21% intend to vote PVV. Among those who are certain to vote in March, this percentage is 33% (!).

Good news! Wilders on course to get a big lead.

How is that good news?

Well, could or should be more in the situtation in which European countries are, but to see that despite the mass media and school Propaganda there are still so many Young people who want to have a future in a Christian Nation ruled within their own Country instead of getting an Islamic Nation ruled in Brussel, is encouraging.

[Klartext89]

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What


PVV is nothing close to Christianity, if they want to have future "in Christian nation" they should vote SGP not some sh**tty populists. And I am not even going to comment that Islamic Nation part.

What says everything about you and your knowledge in the topic. I'm glad Polish people (and government) are way different from you.

But I can't understand why: The problems with Muslim Iimigration and their Population growth aren't anything new, it's not hard to understand that more and more % of Muslim population leads to an Islamic state. That's what history teaches us. Turkey was a Christian country once.

The problems and discussions aren't over or finished when you call the other person bad names. You only show that you don't have the arguments on your side.

[Klartext89]

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What


PVV is nothing close to Christianity, if they want to have future "in Christian nation" they should vote SGP not some sh**tty populists. And I am not even going to comment that Islamic Nation part.

Don't try to argue with fascists. You'll find them deaf to anything rational, and eventually you'll find out they actually enjoy the argument when you're boiling.

Stop trolling.

You are the fascists, you are the ones having problems with different opinions, you are the ones committing violence against others.

There's no rationality in left "thinking", it's only hypocrisy and total nonsense like telling you are against Anti-Semitism or pro gay but celebrating the takeover of Islam. If it wasn't that sad, I could laugh.

[Klartext89]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

[Klartext89]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

I agree with much of your criticism of voters who regret their VVD vote all the time but suddenly start supporting the VVD again in the campaign when they talk about their plans, of course, but the PVV are to blame here too (and I ended up voting for them, mind you). First,  they didn't do sh**t to attract swing voters in the campaign: only their base turned out for them. Second, and most importantly, they have become completely uncoalitionable due to the way Rutte-I collapsed and the way they turned to the right afterwards. The PVV are to blame too. Perhaps the VVD would not be forming a government with GL (which I'm still not sure will happen, but a government with CU wouldn't be that different anyway) if the option with the PVV were still on the table.

I always said that leaving Rutte-I was the dumbest thing to do but I wasn't talking about that.