2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Nhoj]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

is lonegan a libertarian on anything besides economics? not that your point isnt somewhat valid.

[Zarn]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

He's pro-death penalty and really, really, REALLY against "fag marriage," too.  And he's opposed to euthanasia and drug legalization.  I'm kinda wondering what libertarian social views he has.

[Nhoj]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

He's pro-death penalty and really, really, REALLY against "fag marriage," too.  And he's opposed to euthanasia and drug legalization.  I'm kinda wondering what libertarian social views he has.

reading his wiki he also tried to get English made as the official language of Bogota hardly a libertarian position in forcing businesses to have their signs only in English.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac will be releasing(presumably) their last poll tomorrow before the primary.

[Verily]

Quinnipiac will be releasing(presumably) their last poll tomorrow before the primary.

Why presumably their last? They could definitely get another one out the weekend after Memorial Day. Dodgy time to be polling, after Memorial Day, but then again the primary is also at a dodgy time to be voting.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac will be releasing(presumably) their last poll tomorrow before the primary.

Why presumably their last? They could definitely get another one out the weekend after Memorial Day. Dodgy time to be polling, after Memorial Day, but then again the primary is also at a dodgy time to be voting.

They have been polling each state monthly. I don't know if they will break their schedule to include another NJ poll.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

He's pro-death penalty and really, really, REALLY against "fag marriage," too.  And he's opposed to euthanasia and drug legalization.  I'm kinda wondering what libertarian social views he has.

I didn't know about his positions on gay marriage, euthanasia and drug legalization. Interesting.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac

Christie 56%(+10)
Lonegan 33%(-6)

Christie 45%(nc)
Corzine 38%(nc)

Lonegan 42%(+1)
Corzine 40%(-1)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1300

[Keystone Phil]

So there's still a glimmer of hope for the NJ GOP.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

[cinyc]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

Lonegan is running ads on local NYC TV.  I haven't seen a Christie ad yet (though he may be making cable buys in New Jersey, which probably gets much more bang for the buck).

[Rowan]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

Lonegan is running ads on local NYC TV.  I haven't seen a Christie ad yet (though he may be making cable buys in New Jersey, which probably gets much more bang for the buck).

I've seen Christie ads on the Philly TV market which covers everything from Trenton to down south.

[cinyc]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

Lonegan is running ads on local NYC TV.  I haven't seen a Christie ad yet (though he may be making cable buys in New Jersey, which probably gets much more bang for the buck).

I've seen Christie ads on the Philly TV market which covers everything from Trenton to down south.

Over the air TV during the news or on cable?

The New Jersey local OTA TV advertising strategy is a tough one - except for the Atlantic City NBC affiliate (with limited reach), all the OTA advertising has to be bought in the very expensive NYC and Philadelphia TV markets.  For North Jersey, I guess WWOR (my9) is the most logical OTA station to put ads since it's based in Secaucus, NJ and their newscasts are a bit more Jersey-centered than the others. 

I haven't watched to see if Christie is advertising on my9.  But he's not on the other locals, as far as I know.  On the other hand, I've seen 2 different Lonegan commercials, both touting his tax and spending cut plans.

[Rowan]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

Lonegan is running ads on local NYC TV.  I haven't seen a Christie ad yet (though he may be making cable buys in New Jersey, which probably gets much more bang for the buck).

I've seen Christie ads on the Philly TV market which covers everything from Trenton to down south.

Over the air TV during the news or on cable?

The New Jersey local OTA TV advertising strategy is a tough one - except for the Atlantic City NBC affiliate (with limited reach), all the OTA advertising has to be bought in the very expensive NYC and Philadelphia TV markets.  For North Jersey, I guess WWOR (my9) is the most logical OTA station to put ads since it's based in Secaucus, NJ and their newscasts are a bit more Jersey-centered than the others. 

I haven't watched to see if Christie is advertising on my9.  But he's not on the other locals, as far as I know.  On the other hand, I've seen 2 different Lonegan commercials, both touting his tax and spending cut plans.

I've seen them on FOX News a few times. I can't remember if I saw any on the local channels, most likely not. I'm sure he will get on the air locally after the primary though.

[cinyc]

I've seen them on FOX News a few times. I can't remember if I saw any on the local channels, most likely not. I'm sure he will get on the air locally after the primary though.

Thanks.  My guess is Christie is making targeted cable buys throughout the state, which makes a heck of a lot more sense than spending tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on OTA  primary advertising that reaches more out-of-staters than Jerseyites.   

You're right - Christie (assuming he wins) and Corzine will start spending millions on expensive media buys after the primary.  Bloomberg is spending his millions on campaign advertising right now.

[Verily]

Saw my first sign on someone's property today. A Christie sign. But of course it was in an ultra-rich area of Englewood Cliffs, a Republican island in the Democratic sea of southeastern Bergen.

[Rowan]

I have seen quite a few Christie signs in Cumberland County. Not on a particular lawn, just on the side of the road.

[Rowan]

Christie launches new ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIqFcA1yRjs

[Verily]

Saw my first sign on someone's property today. A Christie sign. But of course it was in an ultra-rich area of Englewood Cliffs, a Republican island in the Democratic sea of southeastern Bergen.

I was out in Warren County the other day and must have seen 100 Christie signs, it was crazy.  Haven't seen much else besides on the highway on and off ramps.

Signs on public property are pretty much meaningless. Of course, the primary has been so low-key that private property signs are too few to be meaningful, either.

[Lunar]

Christie launches new ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIqFcA1yRjs

This ad amuses me, not only is a bad idea to open up with a hard-negative ad, but they only show his face in order to hide his body and they squish his face to make it skinnier during part of the ad

Also, the ad begins with "Chris" aligned on top of "Christie" in the exact same font, which could make people think that he's more of a novelty item than a serious candidate


Not impressed, Christie needs to be zeroed in on touting his anti-corruption efforts and brag about "cleaning up New Jersey politics" and so on.

[Lunar]

Here's a Christie TV ad attacking Lonegan, don't know if it's been posted:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvKaClZPXRo

Christie's campaign is way too trigger happy at the moment.  Sure, it may seem cute in the campaign board rooms to run negative ads to cramp down turnout for both candidates, but you still have to define yourself in the opening stages as a positive alternative.

Here is Christie's ad bragging about his anti-corruption efforts, but it FEELS like a negative ad and it makes Christie look ridiculous since they're ripping off of 24's styles and fonts in an attempt to make Christie look like Jack Bower:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcboXUcOtik&feature=channel_page

Sigh.

[Rowan]

Uh, I don't think people care if he is fat.

[Lunar]

No, they don't, but imagery is important.  If the direction the light is shining onto your candidate's face is important, trust me, it was a calculating decision, but an easy one.  People generally assume fat people are less intelligent than skinnier people before they hear a word said, among other various knee-jerk associations people have.






Surprise surprise, New Jersey Democrats are a lot better at attack ads than Christie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mhx6cTXs_xw

Basic modern-day Rovian strategy is to go after your opponent's strengths, and they're doing it.  Attacking through a surrogate organization keeps your candidate's hands clean as well.  At least it's not a frickin' 24 commercial like Christie's