2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Zarn]

It's pretty obvious that unempprof has no idea why people don't like Corzine.

[Keystone Phil]

Because I know 19% aren't really undecided. I trust Quinnipiac to have a better handle of the GOP primary electorate than Rasmussen.

Ok, as long as you know.

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But he might not even win at this point and it doesn't take a "nuclear attack" to allow turnout to be low enough for Christie to lose. The far right Lonegan folks are very, very motivated and that worries me.

OH EMMM GEEE FIRST POST EVER LAWLZZZZ

KeystonePhil, maybe he thinks you're against Christie because you've been really critical of Republicans in Jersey and have been the first to criticize all poll numbers.  I know that when Christie started pulling ahead back in January you dismissed the numbers as insignificant.  Even when 5 polls showed him ahead you were still dismissive.  It took, what, 10 polls for you to finally say 'Ok, he has a shot.'

Uh, yeah, in the General and I still don't think he'll win. It has nothing to do with opposing him; it has everything to do with the fact that the NJ GOP is a total joke and the state always, always, always turns against us in the end. Always.

 

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LOL

So now I wanted Corzine? Really, dude? You clearly know very little about me...

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Ok? Who gives a damn? I don't live in NJ. I can't cast a vote in the election. What does it matter that I'm not excited about the guy on the Internets?

By the way, this is coming from someone who will actually probably help out a bit when I can during the summer.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

no Republican not named Christie Todd Whitman has won in the state since the early 80s

George Bush Sr. won the state easily in the late 1980s.  To be far, though, New Jersey has fewer statewide races than virtually every state since it elects nothing down ballot from Governor.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

from dailykos.com

Good job on the talking point cut and paste.

[Rowan]

Well like I said Phil, I trust Quinnipiac in the state more than Rasmussen. Quinnipiac had 11% undecided.

Oh and FYI, the Rasmussen poll doesn't have 19% undecided, it has 15% undecided with 4% going to "some other candidate."

Oh and Rasmussen's poll only had a sample size of 400, kinda small if you ask me.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Panic over that Rasmussen poll is pointless.  Low turnout primaries in New Jersey do not favor the conservative, they favor the organizational candidate.

When those undecideds show up, they're just going to default to the organizational line with all the candidates whose names they recognize and support.

"Oh, there's the Christie-O'Scanlon-Cassagrande line. And there's some other guy Lonegan who's positioned by himself, alone, at the bottom of the ballot."  *click*

[Keystone Phil]

Panic over that Rasmussen poll is pointless.  Low turnout primaries in New Jersey do not favor the conservative, they favor the organizational candidate.

When those undecideds show up, they're just going to default to the organizational line with all the candidates whose names they recognize and support.

"Oh, there's the Christie-O'Scanlon-Cassagrande line. And there's some other guy Lonegan who's positioned by himself, alone, at the bottom of the ballot."  *click*

Then what happened in 2001? How about 2002 (wasn't Diane Allen the organization's pick in most areas)?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Then what happened in 2001? How about 2002 (wasn't Diane Allen the organization's pick in most areas)?

2001 was a bit of an oddball.  The Republican establishment did everything in its power to blow that race.  First, the machine forced the date of the primary back simply to allow a Franks-for-DiFrancesco swap, which clearly irked voters. Secondly, Franks could not establish a reason for getting into the race, his campaign was a disaster, and his positions on the issues were about as thought out as you'd expect a candidate who was in the race for a month to be (notably, his disasterous senior property tax freeze idea, which was universally panned).

According to Quinnipiac (May 10), Franks was leading when he first got into the race against Shundler, 46–24. By June 20th, Franks was hopelessly behind Shundler in the polls, 54–39. Shundler won in the month before election day by capitalizing on outrage, not on election day itself.

Though Franks had every line in the state (except for the line in Hudson, where Shundler was mayor of Jersey City), the public was so against him that even the heavy advantages that come with aligning yourself with the machine weren't enough.

In 2002, the candidates in the race split endorsements. It was Forrester who had the lines in most of North Jersey (and his home of Central Jersey), including the key county of Bergen; Diane Allen only had the lines in South Jersey (with Matheussen having the lines inside his own South Jersey legislative district only).  And indeed, Diane Allen romped in the counties where she had the line, running up a massive margin in BurlCo especially.

Unfortunately for her, Forrester also romped in the counties where he had the line. Without comparing county-for-county, I believe that each county was won by whomever had the line in it—even Matheussen, who had no shot of winning overall and was not taken especially seriously as a candidate, won the counties where he had the line.

Sadly, Diane Allen lost to an inferior candidate because she didn't have enough organizational support and had to split what South Jersey support she did have with Sen. Matheussen. That failing cost the GOP severely that year and in 2005 when the party had to suffer a clearly-futile-but-marginally-better-than-the-alternatives Forrester-for-Governor bid.

[Keystone Phil]

Fair enough

I just hope the undecided voters don't buck the trend this time.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fair enough

I just hope the undecided voters don't buck the trend this time.

For the most part, people who vote in NJ GOP primaries are a reasonable bunch.  They've only gotten the question wrong on one ballot since the 1970s (arguably), which would be Schundler over Franks.  And even there, it's possible to argue that Franks would have been as bad a candidate in the general as he made in the primary. And there was not much evidence up to primary election day that Schunder would be as awful a general election candidate as he turned out to be, angrily engaging McGreevey over his divorce.*


*The general insider consensus is that Schundler knew full well of McGreevey's sexuality, and was quite frustrated that such a clear personal failing was off the table for him to use.

[Verily]

Panic over that Rasmussen poll is pointless.  Low turnout primaries in New Jersey do not favor the conservative, they favor the organizational candidate.

When those undecideds show up, they're just going to default to the organizational line with all the candidates whose names they recognize and support.

"Oh, there's the Christie-O'Scanlon-Cassagrande line. And there's some other guy Lonegan who's positioned by himself, alone, at the bottom of the ballot."  *click*

Bottom of the ballot? At least in Bergen, the lines are organized vertically (so Lonegan would appear next to Christie, not below him).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Panic over that Rasmussen poll is pointless.  Low turnout primaries in New Jersey do not favor the conservative, they favor the organizational candidate.

When those undecideds show up, they're just going to default to the organizational line with all the candidates whose names they recognize and support.

"Oh, there's the Christie-O'Scanlon-Cassagrande line. And there's some other guy Lonegan who's positioned by himself, alone, at the bottom of the ballot."  *click*

Bottom of the ballot? At least in Bergen, the lines are organized vertically (so Lonegan would appear next to Christie, not below him).

I'm just going by my own experience in Hunterdon—there, offices run horizontally and candidates run vertically. This gives the county committee more power by being able to force off-line candidates lower and lower on the ballot (since some offices require more than one candidate to be grouped together on the same "line," making it much deeper).

I believe Somerset does it the same way, based on the old sample ballots I used to see my grandmother get. I presume that counties like Hudson set things like Bergen, since they're always talking about "Vote Column A" or something similar.

I know other counties do it differently.  It'd be interesting to see sample ballots from all 21 to see how they do things elsewhere.  It has the potential to make a great research paper.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I found this amusing...


Lonegan interviews himself, then thanks himself for doing the interview

The New Jersey Republican News is a newspaper published by Steve Lonegan’s campaign.  So an interview in the most recent edition between the NJRN and Lonegan was essentially Lonegan interviewing himself. The best part was at the end, when Lonegan thanks himself for answering his own questions.

Also, the Lonegan campaign yesterday announced a re-endorsement from Lavallette Mayor Walter LaCicero.  LaCicero nominated Lonegan at the Ocean County Republican convention three months ago.

[Zarn]

Mine goes (from left to right) Merkt, Christie, Looneytoon

Other "regular" Republicans of Burlington County are under second column.

[Rowan]

Mine in Atlantic is Christie in the A column, Merkt in the B column, and Lonegan in the C column.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess it looks like Hunterdon is the exception and not the rule.

For anyone interested, some sample ballots from around the state:

Style 1
HUNTERDON: http://www.bethlehem-twp.org/Forms/2009bethlehemsampleballot.pdf

Style 2
CAMDEN: http://www.co.camden.nj.us/2009municipalprimary/WATERFORD.pdf

[Verily]

Anyway, anyone know anything about the nobodies running against Corzine in the Democratic primary? I'm voting in the Democratic primary for all sorts of important local races, so it would be good to know something about the gubernatorial primary even though it's a foregone conclusion.

[Rowan]

Bergmanson says that he witnessed the US government planning the 9/11 attacks.

I don't know much about Boss.

[YRABNNRM]

I found this amusing...


Lonegan interviews himself, then thanks himself for doing the interview

The New Jersey Republican News is a newspaper published by Steve Lonegan’s campaign.  So an interview in the most recent edition between the NJRN and Lonegan was essentially Lonegan interviewing himself. The best part was at the end, when Lonegan thanks himself for answering his own questions.

Also, the Lonegan campaign yesterday announced a re-endorsement from Lavallette Mayor Walter LaCicero.  LaCicero nominated Lonegan at the Ocean County Republican convention three months ago.

HAH!


LONEGAN FOR GOVERNOR!

[Zarn]

Bergmanson says that he witnessed the US government planning the 9/11 attacks.

I don't know much about Boss.

Boss ran for the Senate and president last year as an independent. I don't remember his stances.

[Zarn]

Mid-Atlantic Leadership Fund called me today. They think they can influence registered Republicans to vote Lonegan, so Corzine can have an easier general election.

They are Looneytoon's last hope! LOL

[Rowan]

That group just bought $300,000 more in advertising too. It's pretty pathetic.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Supposedly, Corzine is giving serious consideration to naming the head of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce and moderate Republican Joan Verplanck as his Lieutenant Governor.

(Note that Corzine does not currently have an LG; New Jersey will be electing its first LG on a joint ticket with the Governor this year.)

[Verily]

Bergmanson says that he witnessed the US government planning the 9/11 attacks.

I don't know much about Boss.

Boss ran for the Senate and president last year as an independent. I don't remember his stances.

Oh right, he's the one whose party line was "Vote Here" or something.

Anyway, re: Verplanck, a very obvious tactical ploy but still a potentially effective one. And I do like her.

[Keystone Phil]

Supposedly, Corzine is giving serious consideration to naming the head of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce and moderate Republican Joan Verplanck as his Lieutenant Governor.

(Note that Corzine does not currently have an LG; New Jersey will be electing its first LG on a joint ticket with the Governor this year.)

Yep, I heard this, too.