US House Redistricting: New York

[minionofmidas]

I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).

[minionofmidas]

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.

[minionofmidas]

Owens may be saved again.

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

[minionofmidas]

Owens may be saved again.

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side.

McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ".

[minionofmidas]

Israel, King and McCarthy should all be safe, unless you get wave years, where they could all lose with this map.  Not to mention that it makes Bishop ever so slightly more Republican - I doubt he would have won there in 2010.  

If there's one Long Island Democrat who should be unhappy, it'd be Bishop. (And if you want to make a bipartisan deal for King, give him all of Smithtown and find Bishop some more marginal places in the south instead.)

[minionofmidas]

Owens may be saved again.

I wonder if Dems can find a good candidate against Gibson. Should be winnable and holdable, but not with just anybody.

All the other incumbents just get safe seats. Bar Hochul, of course. Brian Higgins must be partying tonight (though maybe he needs to beat Hochul in the primary first?)

You think McCarthy and Israel are safe eh Lewis?  OK. See you on the other side.

McCarthy? Yeah, looks to be so. Israel is included under "those discussed in the thread, ie not an 'other' ".

We will see if the Pubs target McCarthy I guess. I think she is baggable with the right well financed candidate myself. She's basically a nebbish.

In a district of nebbishes.

[minionofmidas]

Because it's the Jewish Parts of Brooklyn and while Republicans can get 90% there they can also get 0%.

But won't in this election, of course. Ought to be an R pickup.


Buerkle would have needed her district to get a good more R to have anything like even odds of not having a Democrat in there by 2016 til the end of the decade. Staying the same wouldn't have helped her much.

[minionofmidas]

Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.

Does the same special master draw the State Lege now or will that be separate?

[minionofmidas]

Lewis that cat pic in your signature looks exactly like the best cat I ever had when I was a teenager, Tawny.

Except for a major difference in size. The animal in my signature is a Black-Footed Cat, not a housecat. And yeah, they're a strong contender for most beautiful animated part of God's Creation. And I miss them too (Frankfurt Zoo used to have a couple.)

[minionofmidas]

Please, people. 50% on DRA is not 50%. That's 53%. Get.that.into.your.heads.

What you probably cannot do is get to actual 50% without crossing into Nassau while also uniting Rockaway, drawing a clear northern line rather than cherrypicking precincts down to the very last Black resident, and giving Woodhaven to Velazquez.

As for Inwood, it was probably done because he felt it a better fit or something. And/or enabled cleaner lines for Israel in Queens and for the McCarthy/Israel line.

[minionofmidas]

[with more potential for an even larger one embedded (but not reflected in the 2008 voting stats), in the orthodox Jewish vote

Uh... what?

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm... don't know about turnout. But as to the Republican vote share among Orthodox Jews in Rockland County... "maxed out" is a word that comes to mind.

I guess it would be useful to take a tour de horizon of the applicable precincts wouldn't it? You might be right. Rockland seems to be polarization city.

Doesn't help that the areas just east of the Orthodox are minority-heavy, of course. It's like a mini piece of transplanted Brooklyn!

There might be more, sort of orthodox but not ultra-observant (you know, not wearing the clothes, not living in uniform enclaves) Jews elsewhere in the county that might vote Democratic and be swingable, I don't know. It's possible.

[minionofmidas]

Bob Turner tosses in for NY Senate...hope he has fun.

Translate: The map stands.

[minionofmidas]

I dunno, I figure Joe may have voted for McCain, but otherwise he fits the description.

[minionofmidas]

Are you denying Bob's right to exist?

[minionofmidas]

And as you can further see New York has viewed gerrymandering as an exercise in cutting edge abstract art for a very long time indeed. This map was from a Pub gerrymander

Yeah, that's pretty obvious. The most Democratic non-Rochester bits of Monroe are excised.