2017 French Presidential Election

[Gustaf]

There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.

I'm pretty confused.

You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap?

Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general.

A primary electorate is, I think, generally harder to pin down than a general election electorate. Secondly, primary voters are a lot more fluid since they're picking between much more similar candidates than a general election voter.

[Gustaf]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin?