Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Reichert isn't going anywhere; he's just posturing to get a better district.

[greenforest32]

As an Oregonian I am envious of this fine thread you all have for your state. I learned quite a bit about WA from reading the previous 175 pages

[Holmes]

Wow! You read all 176 pages? You deserve a medal or sumthin'.

[bgwah]

Well, establishment hack Jay Inslee voted for the debt ceiling deal. Hopefully we'll have Dennis Kucinich in that seat come January 2013. (And Cheryl Christ in WA-10)

[CT27]

If not this election, when do you think the GOP will take back the governor's office in WA?

One party won't hold it forever I think.


At least the WA GOP has started to nominate better gubernatorial candidates than Craswell or Carlson.

[CultureKing]

Well, establishment hack Jay Inslee voted for the debt ceiling deal. Hopefully we'll have Dennis Kucinich in that seat come January 2013. (And Cheryl Christ in WA-10)

I really don't get why people like Cheryl Christ that much. I talked to her once in the 2006 primary when she challenged Baird and she came across as a principled but at the same time extremely airy. I am not sure how much is going on in that head of hers.

Now Heck however seems to have the opposite problem, smart as all else but a but on the boring side.

[redcommander]

Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

[bgwah]

Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

No.

[Meeker]

Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

[redcommander]

Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

His vote to raise the debt ceiling.

[Meeker]

Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

His vote to raise the debt ceiling.

I know what vote you're referring to. I just don't understand how you could possibly think that vote would cause liberals to vote for an even more conservative candidate.

[bgwah]

I might vote for random and/or joke candidates in the primary, but Inslee and Cantwell will get my vote in the general.

[greenforest32]

Hmm didn't see any posts on this May 2011 Public Policy Polling poll (PPPP) for Washington state that included a question about gay marriage (maybe I missed it?):

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/washington-says-no-thanks-to-kucinich.html

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I hear Inslee already announced his support which is cool. We're in a similar situation here in OR. Our current governor supports it and PPP did a poll back in June 2011 on us:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/oregon-miscellaneous.html

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So 48/42 support for OR and 48/46 support for WA in 2011. Kind of disappointed neither of us is above 50% yet but I imagine it will keep going up. We're probably going to have a ballot measure on it in 2012. Any plans for WA?

[Meeker]

It couldn't pass the State Senate right now. Too many conservative and vulnerable Democrats.

An initiative might be able to pass but I've heard no plans for one.

[CultureKing]

He's back:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015823653_kucinich05m.html

I really think he is going to take the plunge and run in WA-01. Though I am also of the opinion that he wouldn't make it out of the top-two primary.

[Meeker]

Disagree on not making it out. If there are five or six Democrats running he only needs 20% of the vote to make it to November. He can get that on name recognition alone.

[CultureKing]

Disagree on not making it out. If there are five or six Democrats running he only needs 20% of the vote to make it to November. He can get that on name recognition alone.

Do you think Pelz would allow the democrats to remain divided for very long? I feel like there would be significant pressure to present a unified front against Kucinich.

[bgwah]

On the other hand, it's certainly possible more than one Republican will run. For all we know it could end up being a D vs. D race.

At least Hope seems to be running for county executive... (he's currently in WA-2, but I don't know where he'll be in 2012)

[Meeker]

I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

[bgwah]

I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz

[Meeker]

I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz

Basically all the growth is coming from Republican districts (2nd, 5th, 18th, 39th) which is going to have a domino effect into the swing and lean Democratic districts. There's a level of incumbent protection one can do but with certain districts (like the 19th for instance) there's just not enough Democratic votes to keep it in our column.

Map later today or tomorrow.

[bgwah]

I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz

Basically all the growth is coming from Republican districts (2nd, 5th, 18th, 39th) which is going to have a domino effect into the swing and lean Democratic districts. There's a level of incumbent protection one can do but with certain districts (like the 19th for instance) there's just not enough Democratic votes to keep it in our column.

Map later today or tomorrow.

But even after the 2010 R landslide, we kept both Houses. And the 5th is probably trending D anyway.

[Meeker]

Oh you're correct; it's not a seismic shift or anything. But I think Dems are net losers in the process.

[bgwah]

Well duh, but it's not that bad.

[Meeker]

Fine, Dems are screwed going to be a little hurt