Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Ronnie]

not a great result for dems tbh

First, it's an R+13 district, so it's highly unlikely Dems win here unless something goes seriously wrong for Lesko.

Second, combined primary votes don't necessarily mean a whole lot.  Republicans got far more combined votes than Dems in their AL primary, yet lost in the GE.

[Bidenworth2020]

not a great result for dems tbh

First, it's an R+13 district, so it's highly unlikely Dems win here unless something goes seriously wrong for Lesko.

Second, combined primary votes don't necessarily mean a whole lot.  Republicans got far more combined votes than Dems in their AL primary, yet lost in the GE.

this vote is a 14 point swing from trump tho

[Terry the Fat Shark]

not a great result for dems tbh

First, it's an R+13 district, so it's highly unlikely Dems win here unless something goes seriously wrong for Lesko.

Second, combined primary votes don't necessarily mean a whole lot.  Republicans got far more combined votes than Dems in their AL primary, yet lost in the GE.

this vote is a 14 point swing from trump tho

What you should be focusing on is the 2016 house vote, which GOP won 68-32

[136or142]

Updated results are finally starting to come in.

[Bidenworth2020]

not a great result for dems tbh

First, it's an R+13 district, so it's highly unlikely Dems win here unless something goes seriously wrong for Lesko.

Second, combined primary votes don't necessarily mean a whole lot.  Republicans got far more combined votes than Dems in their AL primary, yet lost in the GE.

this vote is a 14 point swing from trump tho

What you should be focusing on is the 2016 house vote, which GOP won 68-32

an entrenched, uncontroversial(at the time) incumbent's winning margin isn't the best comparative data point

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT calls R primary:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Debbie Lesko
23,928   35.9%
Steve Montenegro
16,077   24.2
Phil Lovas
15,515   23.3
Bob Stump
3,695   5.6
Clair Van Steenwyk
1,583   2.4
Christopher Sylvester
1,298   1.9
David Lien
1,160   1.7
Richard Mack
859   1.3
Mark Yates
752   1.1
Chad Allen
715   1.1
Brenden Dilley
664   1.0
Stephen Dolgos
323   0.5

[Devout Centrist]

Get bent, Steve

[The Arizonan]

My father actually lives in the district in Surprise. Steve Montenegro deserved to lose for being such a phony.

[King Lear]

The fact that Westbrook got 41% means Laura Moser and other weak #resistance candidates are extremely likely to win in D primaries. Panic time for Democrats hoping to retake the house.

This is one of my biggest concerns for Democrats this year (along with them getting locked out of California house jungle primaries, and losing Trump-State Senate seats), is that the #resistance is promoting s**ty, unelectable, candidates that will lose winnable House races.

[Cactus Jack]

Officially eating my hat. I thought for sure the dead-out most bats**t candidate would take it.

[136or142]

Final Results

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/arizona-house-special-election-primary

Democratic
Total Votes: 36,404
Hiral Tiperneni 21,703, 59.6%
Brianna Westbrook, 14,701, 40.4%

Republican
Total Votes: 71,420
Debbie Lesko, 25,508, 35.8%
Phil Lovas, 17,031, 23.9%
Steve Montenegro, 16,987, 23.8%
Others 11,794


Others
Bob Stump 3,832, 5.4%
Clair Van Steenwyk, 1,692, 2.4%
Christopher Sylvester, 1,370, 1.9%
David Lien, 1,261, 1.8%
Richard Mack, 1,014, 1.4%
Mark Yates, 799, 1.1%
Chad Allen, 747, 1.0%
Brendan Dilley, 734, 1.0%
Stephen Dolgos, 345, 0.5%

[136or142]

On election day turnout, Tiperni received 1,600 votes to 700 for Westbrook.
1,900 for Lesko, 1,800 for Lovas and 1,100 for Montenegro

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Hiral Tipirneni
21,703   59.6%
Brianna Westbrook
14,701   40.4
100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Debbie Lesko
25,508   35.8%
Phil Lovas
17,031   23.9
Steve Montenegro
16,987   23.8
Bob Stump
3,832   5.4
Clair Van Steenwyk
1,692   2.4
Christopher Sylvester
1,370   1.9
David Lien
1,261   1.8
Richard Mack
1,014   1.4
Mark Yates
799   1.1
Chad Allen
747   1.0
Brenden Dilley
734   1.0
Stephen Dolgos
345   0.5
100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)

[Badger]

The fact that Westbrook got 41% means Laura Moser and other weak #resistance candidates are extremely likely to win in D primaries. Panic time for Democrats hoping to retake the house.

Thanks Richard!

[Webnicz]

Lovas actually beat Montenegro! Love it! This is a man who literally had “Endorsed By Trent Franks And Joe Arpaio” on his street signs. Further showing that GOP candidates still seek the endorsement of the sherif as he is well liked among GOP primary voters in maricopa county.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

She will likely lose this race. Luckily there is another chance for Westbrook. This is however a pretty decent result by her with the other candidate having the DCCC behind her back with all their money.

[Sestak]

Likely R without Montenegro, unfortunately.

[Greedo punched first]

AZ-08 is no longer considered safe R, only likely R. That is good news in a district that is R+13.

[Brittain33]

AZ-08 is no longer considered safe R, only likely R. That is good news in a district that is R+13.

I don't see any way the Dem wins this other than a completely unexpected scandal.

[Cactus Jack]

AZ-08 is no longer considered safe R, only likely R. That is good news in a district that is R+13.

I don't see any way the Dem wins this other than a completely unexpected scandal.

Well, Lesko is sort of an idiot. A repeat of Saccone's legendary fumble isn't out of the question here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AZ-08 is no longer considered safe R, only likely R. That is good news in a district that is R+13.

I don't see any way the Dem wins this other than a completely unexpected scandal.

Well, Lesko is sort of an idiot. A repeat of Saccone's legendary fumble isn't out of the question here.

Saccone has not even lost yet, granted if he wins, it will be by an underwhelming margin.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Looks like Atlas underestimated the Justice Democrats performance. This is just the beginning of the party takeover.

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Atlas underestimated the Justice Democrats performance. This is just the beginning of the party takeover.

Not really in the places that mattered as much though:

Competitive R Districts:
TX-2 - Defeated
TX-7 - Advanced to runoff (But arguably more due to DCCC idiocy and backlash)
TX-21 - Defeated
TX-23 - Will likely advance to runoff

Safe R Districts:
TX-12 - Won
TX-14 - Won
TX-26 - Won

12, 14, and 26 were primary wins, but in districts not really of importance to the national or state party as they're not remotely competitive in the general election (plus district 12 was uncontested in the primary). In the four districts that do matter where they fielded candidates, two failed to make the runoff, while one candidate (Moser) arguably would not have advanced had it not been for the incompetence of the DCCC in this particular situation. TX-23 was pretty much a 3 way tie for 2nd place, and the Justice Democrat that advanced has a very large hill to climb in the runoff (Gina Ortiz Jones led Trevino 40.5%-17.5%).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Reminder that this thread is only to discuss the upcoming special elections in PA-18, AZ-8, and OH-12. Please direct news regarding regular primary elections to this topic: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286512.0