Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I support Archie Parnell for the election in june, but knowing that he does not stand a chance in the dejure election in june, I will reluctantly support Ralph Norman in the GOP primaries, aka in this district as the defacto election. Since whomever wins tomorrow is essentially the new representative. And IMO Norman is ever so slightly better than Pope, and those are essentially the only two viable options.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tommy Pope
1,723   57.3%   
Ralph Norman
1,285   42.7   
5% reporting (17 of 359 precincts)

Not looking good for Norman at all at this point. Unless he can turn around York County big time, I see Pope winning by the end of the night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Almost all of the votes that are still out are in york county. Votes out from other places are negligible levels. The race now depends on margin control in york county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Almost all of the votes that are still out are in york county. Votes out from other places are negligible levels. The race now depends on margin control in york county.

Cherokee County is still completely out. Rural, yes, but in such a close race it could matter.

Maybe, but I think it will go full swing for Norman.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol yep, I was right.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Now of the 57 precincts out 50 are from york co. Now it is truly up to margin control.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Norman has this.

Don't be so quick to speak, there is still votes out in york county, and if pope can work some magic with the margins...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

94% in. Norman up 16,236   to 15,567. or about 51-49.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes! Norman will be a great congressman!

Well first he has to beat this guy in the General:

That'll be a cakewalk. Today was the defacto election, June 20th is more of a formality for this district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^Not seeing numbers anywhere. AP doesn't have it (which is what NYT uses), and neither does the SOS or DDHQ.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         55.43%    7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  44.57%    6,368

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/

The Fulton County part of the district is all in. The Cobb County part still reporting.  Kirkpatrick should have this.

For reference, Ossoff got 43% in the jungle primary in the area overlapping this. I think it might be fair to say that this area in general is no longer rock ribbed

So a first-time Democratic candidate running a pretty bare-bones campaign financially-speaking managed to basically a) match Clinton's margin and b) match Ossoff's share of the vote here in a runoff held separately from the congressional runoff. That says a lot, even before considering she got close to 45% of the vote in one of the most historically-GOP areas of the state.

Maybe "the Discrepancy" (as I've called it) involving metro ATL voters being more GOP downballot is finally starting to dissolve...or maybe it dissolves whenever an incumbent is out of the picture and the area(s) start voting more like what demography would suggest.  

I do think you make a good point about incumbency. I can see voters in this district voting for a Democrat for President or in an open race, they did it last November and last month. But Price and Isakson performed very well here too. I think next year's gubernatorial race will be interesting here, at least if Democrats run a good candidate.

Hold your horses. Yes, last month a dem won the district with a plurality, but Trump won this district in the general election last year. Granted dems have been doing great in this area, and the republicans are doing bad here, but don't go around spreading misinformation. Trump won the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^Not seeing numbers anywhere. AP doesn't have it (which is what NYT uses), and neither does the SOS or DDHQ.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         55.43%    7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  44.57%    6,368

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/

The Fulton County part of the district is all in. The Cobb County part still reporting.  Kirkpatrick should have this.

For reference, Ossoff got 43% in the jungle primary in the area overlapping this. I think it might be fair to say that this area in general is no longer rock ribbed

So a first-time Democratic candidate running a pretty bare-bones campaign financially-speaking managed to basically a) match Clinton's margin and b) match Ossoff's share of the vote here in a runoff held separately from the congressional runoff. That says a lot, even before considering she got close to 45% of the vote in one of the most historically-GOP areas of the state.

Maybe "the Discrepancy" (as I've called it) involving metro ATL voters being more GOP downballot is finally starting to dissolve...or maybe it dissolves whenever an incumbent is out of the picture and the area(s) start voting more like what demography would suggest.  

I do think you make a good point about incumbency. I can see voters in this district voting for a Democrat for President or in an open race, they did it last November and last month. But Price and Isakson performed very well here too. I think next year's gubernatorial race will be interesting here, at least if Democrats run a good candidate.

I don't give two hecks about whatever else you said, but your words that I just bolded and underlined for emphasis, communicate a lie. Trump won the district in the general election last year, that's a fact.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What did I say about jones earlier today? BOOM! As for the GOP primary, I am shocked, Luther is getting deconstructed by Moore. Probably going to a runoff, and I think I have changed my mind, Moore might actually win it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AP/NYT finally calls the democratic primary for Jones, who is crushing 61-19 with half the vote in.

I knew CNN was wrong, and I even said it earlier today!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Since whoever wins utah 3rd gop primary essentially wins the general, I am rooting hard for John Curtis! Definately the best out of the 3 by far, and overall is actually mediocre. Kind of like I am (to no avail) supporting Strange only in the gop primary, as whoever wins that wins the generals. And frankly he is the best out of the worst there too, but bad overall.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

After over 6 hours of waiting, Jefferson county finally had another larger vote dump, went from roughly 50% reporting for both to 85% reporting for both, This increased Jone's already overwhelming margin, and is also bringing Strange closer to Moore. Right now state wide it is Moore 39% and Strange 33%. Not nearly enough left to put Strange in first, but still possibly enough to make it a not as embarassing second place finish, with hopes of still winning the runoff.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dang, Moore flipped Mobile!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Republicans are bad people

Troll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Republicans All Moore and Strange Voters white Alabamans are bad people.

FTFY

FTFY

FTFY

Don't forget to take Krazen with you when you pass.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AZ-08 is no longer considered safe R, only likely R. That is good news in a district that is R+13.

I don't see any way the Dem wins this other than a completely unexpected scandal.

Well, Lesko is sort of an idiot. A repeat of Saccone's legendary fumble isn't out of the question here.

Saccone has not even lost yet, granted if he wins, it will be by an underwhelming margin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My guess, 58-42 for GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cloud is leading early.

Yeah, it's pretty much decided rn. Congrats Congressman Cloud I guess...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Everything is so quiet in mudeville tonight.  

Wonder why?

Because this was not a race to watch.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, we friggin won Nueces county like 50.4-48.6, this is awesome!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No one is really excited or talking about OH-12 on the ground. It just hasn't captured the imagination like the past special elections over the year. The election is just a month away. I think this is a race Democrats could win -- if they knew it was happening.

that's... worrisome.

Tell me this then - do you think it's more likely that O'Connor wins in a shocker or that Balderson scores a double digit victory?

Troy Balderson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I trust Miles, this race is back on my radar.