youre right. i am speculating on new mexico.
it's just a hunch i have.
Could be...north-central NM has a VERY dubious reputation, and also the NM Dems are more known for things like sending a guy to vote in his own name, AND those of his dead parents (still on the rolls, thanks to the 1993 NVRA!). There have certainly been some highly suspicious elections won by Dems here. This doesn't mean the Reps are pure and innocent, it's that I haven't heard anything about them other than their clever (and legal) use of absentee ballots to lock in votes before Election Day - something the Dems should've copied (but instead, they pass laws to restrict absentee balloting...now that's being poor losers).
As for how NM will go...I posted a poll of sorts in another thread a week or so ago, which I'll summarize as saying:no one has a lead here...