Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26

[Skill and Chance]

OR is currently forecast to still have 5 CDs after 2020. That fits very well with the current projection of Multnomah county to have almost exactly 20% of the state population. A 5 CD split can preserve the UCCs (3 CDs for the Portland UCC) and keep whole counties with less than 2.5% deviation from the quota.



However, OR is on the bubble to gain a 6th CD, so it's useful to look at that as well. Multnomah will be too large for one CD and going south with the new CD requires chops to counties and UCCs. If the counties along the Columbia are combined with Clackamas and the remainder of Multnomah, it is possible to create a 6 CD plan that only splits Multnomah, chops no UCCs, and stays with 2.5% of the quota.

What's the partisanship for the 3 westernmost CDs on the 5 CD map?

[Skill and Chance]

Bonus question. Based on the maps above, which CD do you think has had post the 2010 census the most robust population gain, based on the census estimates as of July 1, 2014?  How about the second most? Which CD has had the most stagnant population growth?

Most growth: VA-10
2nd most: close call between VA-07 the various versions of VA-08 here?
Most stagnant: Has to be VA-09, right?

The most interesting scenario may be if VA-12 doesn't happen.  VA-10 and VA-11 would have to majorly contract.  Ironically, any court remap that created a 2nd safe Dem majority-minority CD in the SE would make 2022 a lot easier for a GOP trifecta in an 11 district world.  8R-3D would probably be impossible then, unless Rigell and Comstock are willing to take their chances in EVEN to D+low seats (note there is a significant Reverse Blue Dog phenomenon in suburban 2X Obama legislative districts, including even some Republicans holding 60% Obama seats).  But a preexisting 7R/4D map with all of the SE Dem areas accounted for would mean a lot more wiggle room to pull 7 and 1 further into NOVA and Comstock further out.