Who will win the presidency?
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  Who will win the presidency?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who'll win in November?
#1
Clinton		  
#2
Trump		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 109

Author Topic: Who will win the presidency?  (Read 1976 times)
Dr. Arch
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2016, 01:02:24 PM »
Quote from: Enduro on September 13, 2016, 01:00:03 PM
I honestly don't know. Clinton's leading in polls, but she's not getting very good turnout for rallies. Either the polls are skewed, or most of her supporters aren't actual supporters. They're just people who don't want Trump to win. If they don't turn up for the rallies, then there is a decreased likelyhood that they'll turn out on Election Day.

Most of America probably wants Clinton over Trump, but Trump has more dedicated supporters who are more likely to show up to the polls.

The whole rallies = turnout = support conjecture is categorically false.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2016, 01:23:05 PM »

Uh, that is definitely possible.
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Xing
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2016, 01:31:14 PM »
I swear, the mood swings of this forum...
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mencken
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2016, 02:22:25 PM »
If Trump keeps up his post-Kellyanne style: Trump
If Trump reverts to form: Clinton
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2016, 02:23:28 PM »
Quote from: mencken on September 13, 2016, 02:22:25 PM
If Trump keeps up his post-Kellyanne style: Trump
If Trump reverts to form: Clinton
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Figueira
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« Reply #30 on: September 13, 2016, 02:53:31 PM »

Possible? Sure. But it's ridiculous to say that it's the most likely outcome.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2016, 03:40:49 PM »

Tbh, I really don't see Trump winning the PV even if he wins the Electoral College.
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angus
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« Reply #32 on: September 13, 2016, 03:50:08 PM »
Interesting poll.  After 107 votes it almost exactly matches the betting odds on realclearpolitics.com
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afleitch
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« Reply #33 on: September 13, 2016, 03:51:38 PM »
I think the fundamentals of 2012 are the same when it comes to Black voters (maybe a smidgeon less Obama; even 2004 numbers would be brutal for Trump) and better for the Dems amongst Hispanics. Clinton is ahead of Trump in most polls with college educated whites. I don't think the energised electorate is older, whiter and less educated.

We might be looking at something between 2004 and 2008 if it's tight rather than between 2008 and 2012. In the worst case scenario Clinton wins via Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. And that would be enough.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2016, 04:01:00 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 04:38:38 PM by John Ewards »
Clinton wins with 325
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2016, 04:21:43 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 13, 2016, 03:40:49 PM

Tbh, I really don't see Trump winning the PV even if he wins the Electoral College.

More likely that he's losing the EC while winning the PV? 272 blue wall.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2016, 04:25:10 PM »
Quote from: MohamedChalid on September 13, 2016, 04:21:43 PM
More likely that he's losing the EC while winning the PV? 272 blue wall.

Yes. There is no blue wall and if he's losing PA and WI, he's also losing the popular vote.
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