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I personally find it a bit odd that Biden's team has not announced money raised for April yet. Wondering if it topped Trump's $76M haul at this point. I would think so, but them being quiet seems odd.

Turkey attacks Northern Iraq, Saudi Arabia warns intervention

18 May
Erbil

Early this morning, Turkish jets attacked Kurdish targets in northern Iraq. This operation came as a surprise to both Iraqi and Kurdish officials. The attack occurred at around 03:00 AM local time near the city of Zakho, close to the Turkish border. The attacks consisted of targeted bombings carried out by TAI Hurjets. The Turkish government claimed it was targeting a number of militias who were funneling weapons into Turkey for use by who officials called "terrorists". The Turkish-Kurdish relationship has remained cold for decades as Kurds make up a large minority in eastern Turkey and a group that has been targeted by Turkey in the past.

A number of countries condemned the attack, including Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The latter threatened Turkey against further attacks, vowing to respond appropriately to any infringement on either Iraqi or Kurdish sovereignty. European leaders have cautioned against inflammatory rhetoric.

Marist: Hurt Up Nationally, movement against Short

May 15 - 19 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 46% (+2)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 41 (-1%)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 12% (-2%)

First Quinnipiac Poll: Hurt Narrowly Up

May 14 - May 19 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 44% (+1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43% (=)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11%(-1)

NYT/Ipsos: Hurt Leads Presidential Race

May 10 - May 15 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (+1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 36% (-3)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 19% (+3)

CNN: Tied Race

May 13 - 15 (950 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 43% (-2)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 10% (+2)

Social Democrats consider entering race, first since 2016

Anne Shields speaking at a Labor Day rally in Boston last year

New York
May 17

The Social Democratic Party is reportedly gearing up to launch a presidential bid this year, aiming to compete with the American Labor Party and New National Liberals. The SDP last competed in 2016, under nominee Phil Marshall, where it placed fourth.

Several SDP candidates have expressed interest over the past few weeks, including former  Massachussets Gov. Anne Shields, New Jersey Representative Param Singh, Maryland Representative Stephen Hernandez, and activist and former State department official Selma Machado.

If entered, the SDP would be competitive for third place, edging out the Chrisitan Democrats in several Western and Northeastern states.

A recent FOX news poll tested a possible ALP vs. NNL vs. CDP vs. SDP match. The poll showed a close race nationally between Labor and National Libs. However, the SDP remained very competitive for third place, edging out the Christian Dems narrowly.

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 36%
Veronica Short (ALP) - 33%
Generic SDP - 15%
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 13%

FOX also polled specific candidates and found the following results. Hernandez and Shields polled best, likely due to name recognition. Singh and Machado performed worse.

Param Singh in Edison, NJ

Joanne Hurt - 35%
Veronica Short - 32%
Stephen Hernandez - 17%
Steven DiFlaco - 12%

Hurt - 36%
Short - 33%
Anne Shields - 15%
DiFalco - 13%

Hurt - 40%
Short - 37%
DiFalco - 15%
Selma Machado - 7%

Hurt - 39%
Short - 36%
DiFalco - 15%
Param Singh - 8%

The SDP has an opportunity to shake up the race by offering a socialist or social democratic platform. Many left-leaning voters in the West and Northeast have shown interest in voting for the SDP, finding the American Labor Party to be too socially moderate and the National Liberals to be too pro-business. SDP candidates have a lane with socially liberal and pro-worker voters, as well as secular, well-educated voters who may be tempted away from Hurt.

Short VP shortlist leaked

Chris Wisnewski speaking in Florrisant, MO

Los Angeles Times
May 17

New York Governor Veronica Short and American Labor nominee is considering a number of people to be her partner in the 2024 Presidential Election. Many commentators consider it likely that Short picks Missouri Senator Chris Wisnewski, who would shore up her support in the Show Me State. Wisnewski, a St. Louis native, could also help Short perform better in southern Illinois and tip the state to her favor. Wisnewski is a noted social progressive, which could contrast with Short's moderate image. Picking him could shore up some socially liberal voters in the Northeast and West.

Another possibility is former Virginia Senator Harris Warren, who could assist Short in capturing voters in the populated Hampton Roads region as well as increasing margins in Arlington and Alexandria.

The names considered are:

Sen. Harris Warren (VA)
Sen. Chris Wisnewski (MO)
Fmr. Sen. Andy Calistano (NJ)
Fmr. Gov. Tom Burgess (WA)
Rep. Alison Wood (TX)
Fmr. Rep. Joshua Crespo (FL)

This follows the trend of Biden being toxic and downballot Dems doing okay. Biden needs to drop out, then we’ll have a blue wave.

You are pretty lucky that Kari Lake is such a weak Candidate. Let's be serious here: Rep. Ruben Gallego is a totally, leftist, progressive radical, former Member of the Democratic Progressive House Caucus and if Republicans had fielded a decent Candidate like Kimberly Yee or Mark Brnovich Gallego would be toast. He is too the left of Senator Mark Kelly and given Arizonas Status as "Maverick State" where the share of the Independent Electorate has expotentially grown over the last Decade I thought he would be a bridge too far for the State. Only Lake makes this possible that he can win.

But I can tell you this: If he doesn't moderate his Positions when in the Senate next year he will have this Seat only for the "Rent of 6 years" and will be badly beaten in 2030.

France accuses Azerbaijan of foamening riots in New Caledonia

"Speaking to POLITICO, a French intelligence official granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues of national security, said that “we’ve detected activities from Russia and Azerbaijan in New Caledonia for weeks, even a few months. They’re pushing the narrative of France being a colonialist state.”"

"Azerbaijan has even founded the Baku Initiative Group, bringing together 14 political movements across the former French Empire in the name of decolonization. The group issued a statement Thursday in which they accused Paris of “infringing upon the Kanak people’s right to self-determination by expanding the electorate to keep them a minority in their own homeland.”"

Hurt did not disclose $1000 worth of gifts from Spanish Deputy PM

New York, May 17.

According to recent reporting from the New York Times, it has been discovered that 2024 NNL Nominee and Minnesota Senator Joanne Hurt failed to disclose $1000 worth of gifts she received from the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain in 2022. At the time, Hurt was visiting Europe on a tour to bolster US-EU relations.

Some of the gifts included artwork, clothing, and smart phone accessories. The NYT reached out to the Hurt campaign for comment but no response has been issued.

ALP nominee Veronica Short quickly seized upon the issue. "$1000 is not pocket change. This was a clear violation of ethics codes and represents a serious issue with Hurt's judgment." She said to reporters at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania. "Do we want a President in the Oval Office who fails to disclose lavish gifts from foreign powers? I know I don't."

Hurt is slated to speak to Meet the Press tomorrow evening, where the question will surely arise.

Status of Ukraine aid:

This article is by far the most detailed that I have seen to date and I have been checking on almost a daily basis. What is missing it detailed on the ground reporting of that the actual impact is, in part perhaps due to security concerns.

You might check it out:

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine

He'd need the military to back him and they aren't going to do that. Once a President's term expires the military can legally ignore the former President and not be in violation of their oath. He could make up his own shadow government but it would be meaningless.