Obama vs. Daniels

[Yelnoc]

Continuing on from this thread.  There is no cop-out option; either choose one or don't vote.

[Yelnoc]

For the fun of it, here is McCain's performance performance plus 3.6% (that way Obama and Daniels are tied like in this poll).  The redistribution is across the board (which is obviously not realistic) but I still find it somewhat interesting.

With 2012 EV numbers, Obama wins 272-266.  I'll make another one of these in four days or so.

[Yelnoc]

Hey Bacon, give us your new map for this one two.

I'm Yelnoc...

But sure, coming right up.

[Yelnoc]

If the most recent Paul map was too harsh on him, this one is definitely too harsh on Daniels.  Is this evidence we are a left-leaning board

Obama 349
Daniels 189

[Yelnoc]

Here is more like what I think would actually happen, assuming the economy continues sluggish growth and we somehow forget about foreigns and nothing major happens over the next year and a half (aka this won't happen in the real world but it's more realistic that the last map).

Basically, Republican areas are naturally a little more Republican because of the Tea Party movement (resulting in better base mobilization).  This shores up states like Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, and NE-02, which were on both side of the edge in 2008.  Despite Daniels' regional appeal, Wisconsin and Iowa stay with Obama because of the respective weakness and strength of the governors.  Daniels of course takes back India and Ohio and makes it a close race in Michigan, though in the end the black vote trumps the states economic woes.  

Colorado narrowly goes for Daniels because of his appeal to the youth vote along with the state's trend of voting against the incumbent.  Virginia is a close hold for Obama; the states shifting demographics have made it into a permanent tossup state.  In the end, the race comes down to the Philly suburbs, with Daniels barely beating Obama out.

Daniels 282
Obama 256

[Yelnoc]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

[Yelnoc]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

Anyway, even with those circumstances, Obama could likely carry Ohio and Pennsylvania. If gas prices are slowly lowering, then they should be 2.50 range by election day. I could see NH going for Daniels, maybe. I agree that'd it be a close election though.

I don't know why Daniels would have more appeal in New Hampshire than Ohio.  And if Gas Prices hit the mid $4 range as they likely will this summer, slowly lowering would still leave them in the mid $3's.  If Daniels can point to an economy that is little better now than it was 4 years ago, he has an even shot.  And you'll notice, his win in Pennsylvania was by 40%, i.e. Obama was within a few hundred votes of being reelected.  This is scenario is likely Florida 2000 all over again.

[Yelnoc]

Is that map what you think would actually happen or what the poll in this thread indicates?