Canadian by-elections, 2013

[DL]

I'm not suggesting the NDP will win Lakeshore, just the irony that the Ontario Liberals and the PCs could each by running candidates who are Ford acolytes from city council. Birds of a feather flock together.

[Hatman 🍁]

It just goes to show you that the Liberals have no ideological base. They're running a former NDPer and a Ford-ite in the same set of by-elections.

[DC Al Fine]

It just goes to show you that the Liberals have no ideological base. They're running a former NDPer and a Ford-ite in the same set of by-elections.

I'm still amazed that Scott "I'm ok with private health care" Brison and Bob Rae managed to sit in the same caucus for so long

[RogueBeaver]

It just goes to show you that the Liberals have no ideological base. They're running a former NDPer and a Ford-ite in the same set of by-elections.

I'm still amazed that Scott "I'm ok with private health care" Brison and Bob Rae managed to sit in the same caucus for so long

Rae's hardly a hardcore Red Liberal like say, Hedy Fry. My favourite part of the Grit healthcare saga was probably Pettigrew publicly contradicting Martin on the subject before walking it back under duress. Brison is also OK with abolishing capital gains tax.

[adma]

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

Depends which approval rating polls you go by.  There are some which have shown Scarborough more in the Ford camp than either Etobicoke or N York.

And besides, being more populist than "conservative" per se, Ford's actual following is a funny thing--otherwise, the Tories wouldn't have been provincially shut out of the 416 in 2011.  And on top of that, if Etobicoke was so cut'n'dried Ford Nation, the Liberals wouldn't have had the plurality across its three ridings federally in '11...

[mileslunn]

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

Depends which approval rating polls you go by.  There are some which have shown Scarborough more in the Ford camp than either Etobicoke or N York.

And besides, being more populist than "conservative" per se, Ford's actual following is a funny thing--otherwise, the Tories wouldn't have been provincially shut out of the 416 in 2011.  And on top of that, if Etobicoke was so cut'n'dried Ford Nation, the Liberals wouldn't have had the plurality across its three ridings federally in '11...

Most polls show Ford strongest in North York and Etobicoke, not Scarborough, although Scarborough did go mostly for Ford.  You are right Ford is a populist as well as it seems he won big amongst the immigrant community while the federal Tories did okay here and provincial Tories horrible. Its true though Ford maybe strongest in Etobicoke North which ironically is the least conservative of the Etobicoke ridings.  Although he did win all three of those in municipal elections.  Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence were the only federal Tory ridings he struggled in which are fairly wealthy but largely white.  It appears along the subway line which is where the wealthiest areas are, his showing was not great while the federal Tories were strongest here.

[DL]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

[Hatman 🍁]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

That was against John Tory.

[adma]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

Actually, I think Miller marginally lost both of them. (But, emphasis upon "marginally".)

And he won them vs Pitfield in '06, needless to say.

[lilTommy]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

Actually, I think Miller marginally lost both of them. (But, emphasis upon "marginally".)

And he won them vs Pitfield in '06, needless to say.

Your correct, Miller lost Etobicoke wards 5&6 (lakeshore) BUT won ward 1 which is the northern most ward in Etobicoke. He also won wards 8(York Univ.),9(downsview) 42 (rouge river) all suburban which were carried by Ford in 2010. Oddly enough, Barbara Hall also did what looks to be her best in those northwest, northeast, suburban wards, very ethnically mixed (among other areas like Flemingdon & Thorncliffe parks, Regent Park, St.Jamestown, Dovercourt)

[Hatman 🍁]

I should know better, I made a map of the 2003 Toronto election a long time ago in the gallery:  

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak confirms Holyday will be their candidate in EL after Ryan drops out due to a car accident.

[DL]

This will be fun. In Etobicoke-Lakeshore we have two Rob Ford acolyte city councillors running. Doug Holyday who votes with Ford 100% of the time is the PC candidate and Peter Milczyn who votes with Ford only 99% of the time will be the Ontario Liberal candidate. If that isn't confusing enough one of the names being floated as a possible NDP candidate - who is genuinely progressive and very ANTI-Rob Ford, is some guy with the last name "Ford"!!

[RogueBeaver]

Holyday says he was asked last week to run.

[DC Al Fine]

Posted this in Canada General Discussion already but...

Al Gretzky is running for the Freedom Party?!

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, have you seen his ad?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DVs2u9CUtc

[lilTommy]

Im actually impressed the Freedom Party was able to put together an add that wasn't totally amateurish.

With two rather right-wing candidates (one more blue-liberal, populist; the other more traditionally conservative) this does open up the opportunity for the NDP to play the two against each other and present themselves as the only real progressive voice. I'm hopeful with a strong candidate the NDP could get a second place... but the PCs & OLP have strong candidates; the by-election will be a lot closer then the last poll said it would be.
The only thing against Holyday (other then him running under a Hudak banner), is he represents a ward in Etobicoke Centre, not Lakeshore. But as deputy mayor (and former Etobicoke mayor) hes well known; this is the best the PCs could muster. If he wins, it will be on his name and his reputation not that of Hudak.

[adma]

Im actually impressed the Freedom Party was able to put together an add that wasn't totally amateurish.

With two rather right-wing candidates (one more blue-liberal, populist; the other more traditionally conservative) this does open up the opportunity for the NDP to play the two against each other and present themselves as the only real progressive voice. I'm hopeful with a strong candidate the NDP could get a second place...

...but, *is* there such a strong candidate?  The gaping news this early on is the "yet to be announced" NDP-candidate situation re EL and SG.

It's early; but one thing these byelections are illuminating is how underdeveloped the NDP ground crews remain in much of the 416--even places where they've had strength in the past...

[adma]

I'm also wondering about Holyday--on the one hand, he might be the Tories' Catherine Fife; on the other hand, it might just be his electoral "farewell gesture" a la Joe Pantalone's mayoral bid.  Look, he's getting up there in years and had to be cajoled to do this--but in any event, this might be the truest actual electoral test of Ford Nation since the Ford mayoralty began (even 2011's fed-prov twofer doesn't quite count)

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is notorious for not being ready for these things. I know in Ottawa South, even the Greens always have a candidate months before we do, and we are often having nomination meetings after the writ drops.

[DL]

The NDP is having nomination meetings in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Scrborough-Guildwood tomorrow night. Considering both seats only became vacant a couple of days ago that seems reasonable. The Greens nominate a ton of people way in advance because in about 104 out of 107 ridings all they have is a name on ther ballot who will not campaign. They don't bother looking for credible people, all they care about is running a full slate and they just search for ANYONE who registers 98.6 on a rectal thermometer who is willing to be on the roster.

People with real jobs and who are good candidates are usually not willing to be nominated for an election that may not take place for another two years. in many cases people have to quit jobs or take long leaves of absence the moment they are nominated. These are reasons why parties don't want to nominate a warm body in every seat years before an election. No one knew that Broten and Best would quit all of a sudden and that byelections would be called that fast and the NDP and other parties are not going to nominate a candidate in every single riding years in advance just on the off chance that the incumbent in that seat sudden;y drops dead and causes a snap byelection.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has the NDP up 52-22 in Windsor-Tecumseh, Tories up 36-29 on the Dipper in London West. Ottawa South has a narrow Grit lead, 42-38. Usual caveats involving Forum and riding polls more generally.

[DC Al Fine]

Forum has the NDP up 52-22 in Windsor-Tecumseh, Tories up 36-29 on the Dipper in London West. Ottawa South has a narrow Grit lead, 42-38. Usual caveats involving Forum and riding polls more generally.

I thought forum tended to over poll liberals?

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP could possibly win London West if the Liberals fall further into 3rd place.

As for Ottawa South, I am interested to see how much Bronwyn will boost our numbers, and who will it affect. No surprise now that people are paying attention that the Liberals have moved back into first.

Oh, and drool-worthy numbers in Windsor!

[lilTommy]

Well in regards to a strong NDP candidate in EL and SG, we shall see tonight.

I have to agree with DL & Hatman; the NDP normally are behind on nominating for stated and maybe other factors as well. But nominating two days after the writ, and maybe a week after the members stepped down shows the NDP has managed to rebuild in some ridings they once were competitive in but since 95 and 03 were obliterated to some degree... since 03 the party was basically trying to just keep itself a float to hold what they had, with a limited target list (no more then 5) up until the last federal when that party did well above expectations.
 
I have been impressed with the candidates that have been presented so far; Fife in KW (who won we all know) but also Hatfield, Sattler, Mackenzie (in Ottawa Centre) Funiciello. The Quality in candidates is there, and we've been seeing that improvement since the last election.

I think the NDP will put most of its resources in WT and LW, those poll numbers prove that its battles the NDP can win. Especially since all (most) the news coverage around Coran has been negative.

Hatman; how are the tories perceived in the ottawa area? they hold two ridings, the suburban ones. But are they as "toxic" as they are here in the 416? could the NDP in OS pull more from that populist, potential tory voter or are the Liberals just that entrenched in Ottawa?