Canadian by-elections, 2013

[adma]

Then again, the same was said about Windsor West after Sandra P. resigned in '11.  (For some reason, the ONDP's been blowing its central Windsor opportunities even while its federal cousins are cleaning house.  But at least they snagged Essex as a consolation prize.)

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

It's actually more NDP friendly than it seems (i.e. where 20%+ currently seems the norm)

I wouldn't put it above them to aim for 3-way competitivity.

[adma]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

LOL

Kind of like that Mexican party that ripped off the Canadian Alliance.

Well, then there's this



as a ripoff of this

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

I think some of the "not friendly" impression is grandfathered in, provincially speaking, from 1999, when the NDP strategically targeted LNC (through incumbent Marion Boyd) and Fanshawe (through Mathyssen), but allowed the Liberals to carry the "strategic endorsement" mantle in London West.  But on the whole, those recent 20%+ results (and they even hit that mark federally in 2006!) prove that framing London West as some kind of Oakville case is hooey--if it's "weakest" for the NDP in London, it's only in relative terms.  Everything from the Old South to Oxford Park to even the "panhandle" neighbourhoods around Sherwood Forest Mall is compatible--it's only south of Oxford and west of Wonderland, around Oakridge and Byron and all of that, that you really get into too-affluent/suburban apparent dead zones; and just as with Fife in Waterloo, one can plausibly sway "enough" of that vote to make a difference.

Then again, what makes London West "NDP-compatible" is also what makes it perfect for grand-coalition Liberalness a la Chris Bentley.

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Not *really*, all things considered--besides, as per my previous post, the no-hope myth re LW is itself the lingering legacy of past provincial suppression.  In that benchmark year for anti-Harris "strategic voting" selectivity, 1999, the NDP seriously aimed for 2 out of 3 London seats in 1999, and this was the odd one out.  (But keep in mind that even after all of that, they did better here than in K-W that year.  Also, just as w/K-W, the NDP would have won within these boundaries in 1990.)

What LW lacks is the big lunchbucket-belt sweep of polls that defines Fanshawe and the SE portion of LNC; it's more of a left-Lib/Red Tory/soft-socialist demo we're dealing with (which may explain the 1999 strategic decision to plump w/the Liberals here).  On the whole, recent NDP results here have been not terribly unlike what a "non-suppressed" pre-byelection K-W tally would have been.  And the "affluent parts" are no more of an impediment here than in K-W--or for that matter, LNC.

This is definitely the kind of seat that could easily go for a "Fife Democrat", under the right circumstances.

[adma]

Don't forget the provincial incarnations of Sudbury and Sault Ste Marie (both Lib, albeit barely in the former case)

[adma]

Should be an easy Grit hold, she won it by 21 last time.

In the present 416 Wynne-honeymoon/Ford-Hudak-backlash state of affairs, true enough--though the seat does have a bit of an NDP history, albeit atrophied since the Ruth Grier days.  (It'd be interesting to see if they try making an effort--though in light of the vanished old industrial base, it may be more as an incipient westward satellite of Parkdale-High Park.  The condos don't make it easy, though.)

[adma]

Isn't the riding vastly different now? Far more wealthier, etc?

Sort of, w/its expansion north into the Kingsway, etc, + the Humber Bay condos and all--not to mention deindustrialization in the south, though the ghost of past favourable polling numbers remains.  That is, it'd be "winnable" more in the event of an overall HamiltonLondonWindsor-esque shift in mood, and a favourable candidate a la Fife (or Bronwyn).  But it beats me who the NDP could pinpoint as a candidate, given the eclipse of the Griers, Irene Jones, etc.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True, but that isn't where the byelection is--and at least E-L has a history *at all*, unlike Etobicoke Centre..n.
[/quote]

[adma]

New Democrats managed 20% and 15% Federally/Provincially last time around, not terrible numbers but not high profile targeted riding numbers.

Well, they had a weak parachute provincially.  And a *strong* parachute federally...but that was vs Iggy, remember...

[adma]

I also think Best has been around for the least amount of time, she was only elected in 2007...

Scarborough-Guildwood is probably going to stay Liberal too; its a battle between the PCs and OLP. Best won with 48% in 11, but federally John MacKay (a blue liberal if i'm not mistaken) just barely held onto the riding with 36% to 34% for the CONs; the NDP did rather well at 26%. Provincially the NDP never held this area, and managed 19% in 11 by a solid 21% in 07 with Neethan Shan who was a school board trustee at the time (now provincial party president, and performed much better in Scar.Rouge River in 11 with 36% a 22% increase).

Actually, the NDP *did* hold this area in whole or in part at various intervals up to and including the Rae landslide.  And as it presently stands, it'd be a more likely target than Etobicoke-Lakeshore (though like E-L, they suffered from an awkward provincial parachute in 2011)

[adma]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I stand corrected; BUT we have to remember the ridings were different back then. The current Scar. Guildwood looks to have been made up of the old Scar.Ellesmere, Scar. Centre and Scar. East(biggest portion 94% of it). In the cases of Ellesmere & Centre more favourable NDP areas to the west were included, Remember Scar.Southwest was a longtime stronghold for the NDP, long time seat of Stephen Lewis. Scar.East was won by a slim margin of 35-30-30 (while the others were won by 40%+)... all those ridings were lost to Harris in 95, and then to McGuinty in 03.

About Guildwood. The average 1st person income is about 50K, thats not low thats about average so i need to be corrected there, but its not a low income area. Its seen a huge decrease in the level of low income dropping from 34% in 2000 to 22% in 2005. The also saw a large increase in the 100K+ bracket growing from 29% to 37% (family income not individual).
DL -  i think you might be thinking of Morningside and Woburn when you speak of Tamils and high rises. One only has to look at the Guildwood VIA/GO station to see the area is very suburban, single family homes kinda neighbourhood.

If we compare E-L to Scar.Guildwood, might be right in that the areas is demographically changing more here to be favourable to the NDP, especially if they ran someone like Neethan Shan again. While E-L is seeing a huge condo boom in the south and a hollowing out of the older middle-working class areas, those neighbourhoods of Mimico, New Toronto, Long Branch and Alderwood have seen the middle income brackets shrink while 100K+ explode, although average 1st person incomes are still between 30-50K. E-L is generally very European too, with only New Toronto having a single group being over 10% (Black).

In regards to Agnes Macphail, it might have helped that she was a Progressive then United Farmer first before running in York East as a CCF'r

I agree that the ridings were different, and the present Scarb-Guildwood is a patchwork of previous incarnations; but one has to be cautious in "reading" said previous incarnations, too, since things could easily be skewed by incumbency or other countervailing riding-configuration factors--for instance, Scarborough East might have been 35-30-30 NDP in '90, but if it were just the "Scarborough-Guildwood" part the NDP share skews much higher.

And just as we should be careful about reading too much into "Tamils and high-rises", we also should be careful in reading too much into what one sees from Guildwood GO station; in fact, the kind of affluent/genteel bluffside suburbia that defines Guildwood Village is itself more of an "isolated" factor within the riding than it might appear.  Indeed, I suspect that the repeated failed targeting of this seat by the Tories is founded upon a misreading of "Scarborough-Guildwood" as something for more defined by Guildwood Village than it actually is--plus, an overconfidence in past Tory-favourable results in places like the former Scarborough East.

In fact, when it comes to "the mean", Scarborough-Guildwood isn't really much different from Scarborough Centre; it's just that SC is more homogeneous middle/lower-middle 50s60s sprawlsville, while SG is more a place of polarities: the affluence of Guildwood, but also its Scarboro Village/Mornelle/Tuxedo/Galloway/Morningside antithesis (not to mention Danzig Drive, the scene of last summer's headline-hogging shootings)

And while John McKay held on in '11, closer inspection of polling results reveal that it had something to do with some surprising, trend-defying "Hail Mary" Liberal strength particularly in the zone SE of Markham and Lawrence--otherwise, he would have fallen like Cannis, Simson, etc; it was all in that one node, plus various apartment towers here and there...

[adma]

Exactly--we could even be looking at a repeat of the K-W third place finish (though that might have been more likely pre-Wynne than now).

Oh, and while I wouldn't rule out defeat, I wouldn't jump the gun on calling Scarb-Guildwood any more of a "possible" loss than Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Ottawa South, either--the fact that the Wynne honeymoon (such as it is, and providing it endures) is most marked in the 416, plus the pattern of supposed Tory target campaigns stumbling and the wild-cardishness of the NDP (which, from all indications, has suffered the most WynneGrit share-poaching within the 416), ensures it.  On top of all that, if we go by what's transpired so far w/Etobicoke-Lakeshore, all the 416-zone provincial-star-candidate buzz seems to accrue around the Liberals (then again, it seems that both E-L and S-G already had Tory candidates in place for the anticipated budget election that didn't come)

[adma]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it. 

Though as I suggested, it was really a Hail-Mary spot polling circumstance that cinched it for the federal Grits--more of a fluke hold, as opposed to, say, Scarborough-Agincourt.

And the winning Grit share in Guildwood was lower than the losing Grit share in its two successive neighbours to the east (Pickering-Scarb E, Ajax-Pickering)

[adma]

If this were the old PCs (Davis, pre-Harris) Milczyn would be a PC candidate.

Given how the Davis-era Ontario Liberals were to the right of the PCs, I'm not so sure.  

But I agree that Milczyn gives the NDP an apening--at least, if they take advantage of it.  And given how Milczyn may be tarred by association w/Ford, and barely won municipal re-election last time out--well, there's *potential* vulnerabilities there...

[adma]

Though Holyday seems a bit long in the tooth and "settled in" municipally to make such a jump.

In any event, Milczyn jumping the gun marks another blow to the Ford exec ctee...

[adma]

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

Depends which approval rating polls you go by.  There are some which have shown Scarborough more in the Ford camp than either Etobicoke or N York.

And besides, being more populist than "conservative" per se, Ford's actual following is a funny thing--otherwise, the Tories wouldn't have been provincially shut out of the 416 in 2011.  And on top of that, if Etobicoke was so cut'n'dried Ford Nation, the Liberals wouldn't have had the plurality across its three ridings federally in '11...

[adma]

David Miller won the wards making up Etobicoke Lakeshore when he beat John Tory in 2003

Actually, I think Miller marginally lost both of them. (But, emphasis upon "marginally".)

And he won them vs Pitfield in '06, needless to say.

[adma]

Im actually impressed the Freedom Party was able to put together an add that wasn't totally amateurish.

With two rather right-wing candidates (one more blue-liberal, populist; the other more traditionally conservative) this does open up the opportunity for the NDP to play the two against each other and present themselves as the only real progressive voice. I'm hopeful with a strong candidate the NDP could get a second place...

...but, *is* there such a strong candidate?  The gaping news this early on is the "yet to be announced" NDP-candidate situation re EL and SG.

It's early; but one thing these byelections are illuminating is how underdeveloped the NDP ground crews remain in much of the 416--even places where they've had strength in the past...

[adma]

I'm also wondering about Holyday--on the one hand, he might be the Tories' Catherine Fife; on the other hand, it might just be his electoral "farewell gesture" a la Joe Pantalone's mayoral bid.  Look, he's getting up there in years and had to be cajoled to do this--but in any event, this might be the truest actual electoral test of Ford Nation since the Ford mayoralty began (even 2011's fed-prov twofer doesn't quite count)

[adma]

The optics of Giambrone parachuting himself into Guildwood look *awfully* dicey to me--yeah, he's Giambrone, and Guildwood isn't necessarily NDP-unwinnable; but still, he's Giambrone, and it's Guildwood.

(Then again, Dr. Bob Frankford, another parachuter from downtown, was the Scarborough East victor in 1990.  But again--1990.  And it was the accidental, non-indigenous Frankfords that explain why the Rae gov't was doomed--then again, he still managed to squeak over the Liberals in his 1995 re-election bid, somehow.)

[adma]

And Giambrone, like Coran, might well turn out to be the worst kind of "best candidate"--even if, unlike Coran, he might wind up gaining share for his party.  Then again, and rather incredibly, he might *not*...

[adma]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

Though said "deeply blue seat" went Liberal in 1993 and even 1997--then again, that's when the Chretien Liberals still hels some Western-populist cachet.  (And it was an extremely polarized electorate: the evangelicals going ReformAlliance, the Metis communities going Liberal--nowadays, the Metis only go "less Conservative")

[adma]

If Chhabbra cares about her personal ambitions, she only killing them...whatever the merit of her case etc...by going public and talking to hostile media all she is accomplishing is ensuring that she will be persona non grata in the NDP in the future.

I'd argue the reverse: at least when it comes to "general public", she's gained at Giambrone's expense, and the NDP'd be foolish to fumble her away...

[adma]

not sure who he is, but his site lists that he has a serious community organization CV. Also a past regional VP with the OLP.

Sounds insider-hack enough to leave a Jennifer Hollett salivating...

[adma]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Who cares? I'm pretty sure than OLP will heavilly campaign on Wynne in Church/Wesselley.

This is for the federal nomination.  (You're forgiven.)