OFFICIAL Vice President leaks, tips, and speculation thread

[Lunar]

Marc Ambinder's Sources say that Kaine's private body language indicates he is not the VP pick.

http://twitter.com/marcambinder/statuses/894953338

This goes a bit too far.

I disagree.  If people around Kaine say that he is acting more down, or when asked if he knows who the VP is he'll sigh and say "No" but does not act like he mean it, that's a valid tip.  I don't know what they mean by body language though.

[Lunar]

It seems like we are down to two.

I think Kaine has been sunk ever since the convention theme was announced.  As soon as Kaine saw that he told people privately that he didn't think he was in the running anymore.  Sebelius and others were also sank by that theme.

[Lunar]

It seems like we are down to two.

I think Kaine has been sunk ever since the convention theme was announced.  As soon as Kaine saw that he told people privately that he didn't think he was in the running anymore.  Sebelius and others were also sank by that theme.

Then why the big secret meeting?

Well, it wasn't THAT secret since Kaine had his aids there.   My best answer is a combination of a bluff and official business.

How the hell can Kaine headline a day dedicated to securing America and veteran's affairs and bipartisanship?  Seriously, why would Obama's team give McCain an easy attack like that.

[Lunar]

I might be a little cheezed off if they wake me up before 9:30 am tomorrow.  I'll forgive them though if it's Bayh.

[Lunar]

I might be a little cheezed off if they wake me up before 9:30 am tomorrow.  I'll forgive them though if it's Bayh.

They won't.  They don't want to annoy people like that.
By the way, are you supporting Obama?

Probably.  I'm not a Barr guy and I don't want to go to war with Iran.  If Obama chooses Clinton I'll probably vote for the Pansexual Peace Party if they make the ballot in CA.  Why do you ask?

I really just support Bayh because he's my prediction and I think he's by far the best tactical choice for Obama's campaign.

[Lunar]

Ok I woke up early just to do this!  That and my overwhelming boredom since everyone I know is out of the country, haha.  (The only reason this thread exists).

Anyway. 



Who will be able to start the thread first?  LET'S DO THIS

[Lunar]

The trick is to find out before the text.

Hints Of Major McCain Rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan On Or About 8/31
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/mccain_vpstakes_michigan_clue.php
So there's apparently going to be a major political event in Grand Rapids, Michigan on or about 8/31.

A McCain campaign event, say two sources.  (Cautioning as always...plans could change, but...)

On one hand, Mitt Romney's home base is in Oakland County, or Macomb County, not Grand Rapids.

On the other, other hand, Romney has campaigned in GR many times.

On the other, other, other hand, Michigan is a swing state.

CW says McCain will appear with his pick in Ohio on Aug 29 and then tour the country.  A stop in Pennsylvania is also planned, probably on the 30th.

So is, apparently, a stop in Michigan, on the 31st.

A Michigan GOP spokesperson referred questions about the schedule to the McCain campaign, which declined to comment.

[Lunar]

Ambinder elaborates on Kaine's negative body language - SELL
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/a_note_on_body_language.php

Virginia Democrats close to Gov. Tim Kaine read a lot into Kaine's body language during the day yesterday. He seemed... to know.  Apparently, he doesn't have much of a poker face. From his mien, we've all concluded that Obama told Kaine he wouldn't be picked and that Kaine was wearing the rejection.

Maybe.

But perhaps the opposite is true: perhaps Kaine, having been entrusted with an enormous secret, a life-changing secret, was stunned into humility. Would YOU feel all jazzed reading the talking points if you knew that your life would be changed forever just 24 hours hence?

I'm not trying to confuse matters here... just saying that we ought to be careful of confirmation bias when trying to read the body language of VP contenders.

[Lunar]

Sources near NYT float General Patreaus for McCain
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/22/us/politics/22veep.html?ref=politics

People close to the campaign also floated a wild-card choice, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq. They said it was not beyond the realm of possibility that Mr. McCain would ask him to join the ticket, although General Petraeus has no experience in elective government and has said repeatedly that he is not interested in the vice presidency.

One adviser characterized General Petraeus, who presided over a recent reduction of violence in Iraq, as more of a wish-list candidate for Mr. McCain, who, like the general, long supported sending additional troops to quell the insurgency. The adviser said the campaign was putting forth his name in part in a bid for attention at a time when Senator Barack Obama's choice of running mate, which is to be announced in the next few days, was dominating the media.

McCain's list narrows
same article

Senator John McCain has narrowed his list of potential running mates to a handful of candidates and appears unlikely to select anyone who supports abortion rights, several advisers close to his campaign said on Thursday.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota are the top candidates as Mr. McCain and his advisers gather over the next several days at Mr. McCain's cabin near Sedona, they said.

[Lunar]

C'mon, Bayh is the least likely VP prospect in the history of time to inadvertently blurt out a critical detail or give away anything.  These people would be better off trying to goad Biden haha.


Bayhwatch is less exciting than Baywatch
http://www.theindychannel.com/news/17265272/detail.html

Camera crews staked Bayh's house Thursday night and Friday morning, but they didn't learn anything new when he emerged Friday morning.

Bayh buzzed off in his Jeep with twins Beau and Nick, who he has been taking to camp this week.

Bayh was polite with reporters, but neither he nor his media people would say anything. His press office declined to tell reporters how he planned to spend the day.

Obama told reporters that his choice has been made, but his campaign is keeping everything under wraps, presumably until Friday afternoon or evening when a text message could be released that will end the political hand-wringing, at least for a while.

[Lunar]

Sebelius scheduled to be in Denver on Saturday afternoon, no build-up of security around her - although if there was a buildup of security then it would have leaked by now obv.  The article makes fun of the AP's veep stakeouts a bit too
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/13879

"People make up their lists as they go along," Sebelius said as she left the Statehouse. "I don't know whose list is whose, anyway."

Sebelius bantered with reporters, asking them whether they had anything better to do than follow her and ask about her chances.

Her aides have said she plans to take a commercial flight midday Saturday from Kansas City International Airport to Denver. That would seem to conflict with Obama's plans to have his new running mate campaign with him Saturday in Springfield, Ill., where he kicked off his presidential campaign.

Sebelius' schedule called for her to return to the Statehouse after the union event, but she also was to attend an economic development meeting on Kansas Museum of History grounds in west Topeka later in the day.

There has been no sign of an increased security presence around Sebelius in recent days.

[Lunar]

Another problem with Chet is that Obama will look like he does whatever Pelosi tells him to.  He's just throwing the House Blue Dogs a bone by vetting Chet.

Here's what all of the VP's have done today
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j1ZlXAsnQa-4VAeODWWmCJ6VH3UAD92NEUQG0


_Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine visited George Washington University in Washington, D.C., with his son, daughter and wife. When asked if Obama had contacted him regarding the vice presidency, he declined to comment.

_Sen. Joe Biden was at home in northern Delaware, where he met for about 30 minutes with his state director.

_Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was in her office in Topeka, Kan., then left the Statehouse to address a meeting of Kansas AFL-CIO activists. She also planned to interview judicial candidates, meet with aides and prepare for the Democratic National Convention in Denver, her staff has said.

_Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh went to his twin sons' tennis camp in Washington and planned to return to his home in the District to spend time with his family, Bayh spokesman Eric Kleiman said.

_New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton toured the New York State Fair in Syracuse, where shook hands with fairgoers and prepared to make some remarks.

[Lunar]

FOX News says that they have houses in front of everyone's home and the VP prospects are all just sitting around waiting for that phone call (or looking like they are, apparently).  They have a crew scrambling to get to Chet Edward's home.

[Lunar]

FOX News says that they have houses in front of everyone's home.....

Houses in front of everyone's home?  You mean they've blockaded them in there by constructing an adjoining house, just for the media?  This is getting ridiculous.

Err...yeah... crews not houses.

[Lunar]

Edwards isn't as awful of a pick as he might seem.

First of all, it's interesting that his name just got leaked.  Perhaps it's to throw him and Pelosi a bone, but it's also possible that it's to make his eventual surprise pick create less of a "Who?" factor.

He is a Democrat representing the most Republican district in the country according to FOX and represents the largest military base in the country, but still has a lot of liberal positions like abortion. 

I don't know if Obama can get away with selecting anyone with the title Congressman though due to Obama's own experience problems.

[Lunar]

Chet Edwards speaking live on FOX right now.

[Lunar]

"We've been pretty successful at keeping this a secret for the last three months." - Edwards speaking on the vetting process.

"I've been known for being a champion of veterans.  Known as a supporter of national defense.  I'd most like to be known as a general down-to-earth" - Edwards speaking on what he is known for.

DAMN, that sounds a lot like what the convention theme is going to be and what Obama says he wants in his VP.

UGH WHAT ARE YOU DOING

[Lunar]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gxVW-aUPQsPkU0JKEleSPNCyxSsAD92NH0802

"Obviously, the most important question is: Is this person ready to be president?" Obama told "The Early Show" on CBS. Second, he said, was: "Can this person help me govern? Are they going to be an effective partner in creating the kind of economic opportunity here at home and guiding us through some dangerous waters internationally?"

And, he added: "I want somebody who is going to be able to challenge my thinking and not simply be a 'yes person' when it comes to policymaking.

Among those believed in the running, Biden, Bayh and Edwards fit the mold of running mate with experience in defense or foreign policy — areas in which Obama performs relatively poorly in the polls compared with Republican Sen. John McCain.

Clinton's credentials were forged in the primaries and caucuses where she ran a close second to Obama in the battle for the nomination.

There was no shortages of other speculation, ranging from: GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, who traveled with Obama to Iraq and Afghanistan; Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, or Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut.

Edwards, whom Speaker Nancy Pelosi had touted for running mate, told reporters in Waco, Texas, "I have had interactions with the Obama campaign over the last several months but I will not get into details."

One Democratic official with knowledge of the conversation said Obama told Pelosi recently that she would be pleased with the choice. Other Democratic officials said he was on the short list. All spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss Obama's selection process.

Edwards, chairman of the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Subcommittee, is a nine-term moderate Democrat representing the GOP-leaning Texas district. He is well-known in Texas but does not have a national profile.

[Lunar]

FOX says that the McCain camp is shooting down the idea that he has picked Romney already.

[Lunar]

Well, if Obama wants it to be at least 12 pm Hawaii time, he has to wait until 5 pm EST.  Right now it is 11 am in Hawaii.

[Lunar]

Oh, by the way, Gibbs said in a FOX interview an hour ago that Obama might wait until next Wednesday to announce the VP.  He said it kind of like he didn't mean it though.

For people who don't know, Gibbs is in Obama's tightest inner circle and certainly knows who Obama has chosen (along with Axelrod and Plouffe).

[Lunar]

Kids are killing the news media paparazzi in lemonade prices
ABC

With reporters staked out in their front lawn night and day all week long to monitor Sen. Evan Bayh's house across the street, the three Waldman kids found a way to profit - sell lemonade to the thirsty media throng.

And boy did they make a killing.

No sooner had the stand been set up at the base of their driveway then instantly a line formed five-deep in cameramen. Location, location, location. Serving the ice-cold juice in nice pint-sized glassware, the kids quickly made a buck or two...or twenty.

The elder Waldman saleswoman, Siena, 6 (and 3/4!) said she'd use the profits to buy a walkie-talkie, but noted that it'd be "expensive."

No wonder she was charging a dollar a drink.

[Lunar]

Well, if Obama wants it to be at least 12 pm Hawaii time, he has to wait until 5 pm EST.  Right now it is 11 am in Hawaii.

What's so magical about 12pm?

Nothing except that it's the "afternoon."

11:20 am works just as well, really.  But 12 o'clock is sort of a catchy time to release it, eh?

[Lunar]

Yeah by Walter but that doesn't count.

Well, if Obama wants it to be at least 12 pm Hawaii time, he has to wait until 5 pm EST.  Right now it is 11 am in Hawaii.

What's so magical about 12pm?

Nothing except that it's the "afternoon."

11:20 am works just as well, really.  But 12 o'clock is sort of a catchy time to release it, eh?

Ummm....dare I ask....will anyone care what time the news comes out in Hawaii?  Is Obama afraid of losing Hawaii because of resentment over the "early morning" timing of his VP announcement?

Yeah I know.  I just looked up the time zones and felt like mentioning my newfound knowledge.


 If I had to guess at the two most likely times though, I would say 5pm or 6:30pm EST.

[Lunar]

Yeah by Walter but that doesn't count.

come again?

and i never speculated that obama would pick lingle.  i asked about her chances with mccain.  phil and other righties said she was 1. jewish and 2., gay, therefore unacceptable to their wing of the party.

I'm just teasing .  I thought you said Obama/Lingle but no worries.

ABC news
Chet Edwards says that he too is looking forward to the text message!
Speaking to reporters on his front lawn in Waco, Edwards said, “I’m unknown to most Americans, I’m probably better known at my son’s little league ball games and Boy Scout camp outs than in the social circles in Washington, DC.  I try to be a work horse, not a show horse in Washington.”

Edwards gave no details on his contact with the Obama campaign, saying, “There’s only one person who’s gonna make that decision and that’s Sen. Obama and I’m going to respect that.”

He said he too has signed up for the Obama campaign’s vice presidential text message announcement and does not yet know when he is going to Denver.

Asked what he would bring to a national campaign, the Congressman cited his work for veterans and military families.  Edwards is the chairman of the House Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations subcommittee.