Without '14 Senate race, Ohio pols eye '16, '18

[Miles]

Article.

Basically, there will be little competition on the House side, except for CD14. With Portman seen as a national figure for 2016, both sides are looking at his seat; Republicans are also looking for someone better to challenge Brown down the line.

[moderatevoter]

So general consensus is that if Portman runs for re-election, he's relatively safe?

[Miles]

The Dems likely can't beat him and they only have a Some Dude running, albeit he's in this far out.

[Vosem]

Meh, in a landslide anyone could (not will -- could) take Portman down. In a neutral/even slightly Republican year any elected official could get close, but only Richard Cordray could actually beat Portman (and even then it wouldn't be guaranteed) -- once the year has a perceptible Republican lean, Portman definitely beats Cordray and blows out anyone else. (Assuming Strickland doesn't return to politics, which is very, very doubtful).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yeah, Portman isn't going anywhere. Brown (as of now) is just as safe.

[publicunofficial]

Portman will be as vulnerable as Brown was in 2012.


Strickland would be awesome, but I doubt he runs. If Fitzgerald loses by a hair to Kasich, I'd like to see him try to take out Portman with higher minority turnout on his side. Mark Mallory would also be a decent land. And if Connie Pillich beats Josh Mandel (And I expect she will), she'd also be a fairly good candidate.


Other than that, there's lesser candidates like Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton, and maybe one of the 2010 victims like Zack Space or John Boccieri.

[Niemeyerite]

Strickland would be 75 in 2016, too old. I'd run Todd Portune against Portman in 2016.

[windjammer]

Why would Portman be safe? Guys! It's Ohio! See Casey in 2012 in PA, it wasn't safe at all!

[windjammer]

Why would Portman be safe? Guys! It's Ohio! See Casey in 2012 in PA, it wasn't safe at all!

Portman winning one term showed that Democrats are not so overwhelmingly favored nationally for elected office. Ohio, two years after Bush leaves office puts President forty-three's financial director into the United States Senate, and easily. Think about all of that previous sentence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2006
But this, a progressive democrat heavily defeats an incumbent senator in 2006.
Well, I'm not saying Ohio will be a toss up, but saying that it would be SAFE rep is misguided, lean rep is more appropriate I guess.

[windjammer]

Why would Portman be safe? Guys! It's Ohio! See Casey in 2012 in PA, it wasn't safe at all!

Portman winning one term showed that Democrats are not so overwhelmingly favored nationally for elected office. Ohio, two years after Bush leaves office puts President forty-three's financial director into the United States Senate, and easily. Think about all of that previous sentence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2006
But this, a progressive democrat heavily defeats an incumbent senator in 2006.
Well, I'm not saying Ohio will be a toss up, but saying that it would be SAFE rep is misguided, lean rep is more appropriate I guess.

Its no where near safe Republican at all. I just meant the state is winnable for Republicans and 2010 is an example of that. Give it twenty years, and Ohio might be lean Republican. I don't see it being Safe Republican in my lifetime.

So I agree with you . In fact, I reacted to this post:

Yeah, Portman isn't going anywhere. Brown (as of now) is just as safe.

[IceSpear]

Why would Portman be safe? Guys! It's Ohio! See Casey in 2012 in PA, it wasn't safe at all!

Casey would have been safe, had he actually run a campaign. Instead he saw his 20 point leads, rested on his laurels, and did absolutely nothing the entire election season.

[Miles]

Joyce gets a non-Some Dude primary challenger:

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[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Lynch wins the primary, and he definitely could (although he's the underdog), this becomes Safe D.