Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain] (user search)
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  Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain] (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 502396 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2008, 09:37:21 AM »
Quote from: ucscgaldamez on September 07, 2008, 09:30:22 AM
The almost double-digit lead McCain had two days ago among Independents is now gone. They are now even. When Rasmussen had said that a bounce was showing for McCain earlier it was mainly on Independents. But the numbers for them just keep changing. If Obama does well tonight, he will pass McCain among independents for tomorrow's update. McCain tying came about by Democrats reducing their share of support from 85%~ to about 81% now. Before the DNC started he was supported by 79% of Democrats. We'll see if it keeps going down or holds steady. If it goes up, then the limits McCain's gains. This race is essentially where it was before the conventions started.

He was ahead by double-digits among Independents ? Gallup for example had Obama ahead by about 4%. Even the recent dubious CBS poll had Obama ahead.

I don´t really think McCain will get a higher Republican share than Bush did in 2004. I think he'll get 92% of them. Let's say Obama gets 86% of Democrats. It will all come down to Indys again.

Democrats (40%): Obama 86%
Republicans (34%): McCain 92%
Independents (26%): Both 50%

Obama gets 50.1% overall.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #51 on: September 10, 2008, 08:31:14 AM »
Wednesday - September 10, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 46% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (-2, +2)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for New Mexico, North Dakota, and Alaska. Polling for Senate and Governors’ races will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

A Washington Post poll generated comment yesterday by noting that White Women favor McCain. Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group. Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #52 on: September 10, 2008, 12:58:36 PM »
Quote from: riceowl on September 10, 2008, 12:56:15 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on September 10, 2008, 12:40:09 PM
I can't wait until we get the poll out of ND.

i imagine youre expecting a substantial mccain bump?

I expect something like 54-41.

More interesting will be the NM poll ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #53 on: September 11, 2008, 01:07:21 PM »
Quote from: CPT MikeyMike on September 11, 2008, 08:34:06 AM
Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Idaho and Wyoming.

Roll Eyes
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #54 on: September 20, 2008, 12:30:56 PM »
Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #55 on: September 20, 2008, 12:45:36 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 20, 2008, 12:42:34 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 20, 2008, 12:30:56 PM
Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

Yes, take a look:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep20.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #56 on: September 22, 2008, 02:46:56 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on September 22, 2008, 08:52:51 AM
Quote from: Sam Spade on September 22, 2008, 08:37:07 AM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on September 22, 2008, 08:34:14 AM
Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

So, where does this sample lie in the O+0.93 to O+3.93 range?

Waiting for my source. Tongue

If your source says Obama by 1-2% on Sunday (which would be close to an eventual Election Day outcome), I´m even more interested in PA, MI, VA, OH and FL.

Why can't they release it at 3pm, so that we Europeans can get the results too ? Sad
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #57 on: September 23, 2008, 02:35:44 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on September 23, 2008, 02:34:21 PM
Kansas will definitely come out today.

CA too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #58 on: September 23, 2008, 02:40:29 PM »

It's on their homepage.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #59 on: September 26, 2008, 08:28:42 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2008, 08:32:59 AM by Tender Branson »
Friday- September 26, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)

A Virginia update will be released at noon Eastern today.

It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in McCain’s direction.

For most of Election 2008, McCain has attracted more support from Democrats than Obama earned from Republicans. That is no longer the case. Each man now attracts 12% of voters from the other political party.

McCain’s lead among white women is down to two-percentage points. This is a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago.

Just 13% of voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s down from 17% a week ago and 23% two weeks ago.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tonight’s debate, if it takes place, could be very significant. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the same about McCain. The remaining 20% are the target audience for the candidates during the debates and throughout the rest of the campaign. Data to be released later today shows that Obama is seen as having better debating skills and is more likely to help his campaign at the Mississippi forum.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #60 on: September 27, 2008, 11:21:16 AM »
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #61 on: September 28, 2008, 06:52:57 AM »
Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #62 on: October 04, 2008, 08:42:44 AM »
Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #63 on: October 04, 2008, 12:09:41 PM »

Meaningless movement ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #64 on: October 05, 2008, 07:12:42 AM »
Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #65 on: October 06, 2008, 08:32:30 AM »
Quote from: Kalimantan on October 06, 2008, 08:30:49 AM
Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

"This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year.

As for the Presidential race, Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats.

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #66 on: October 06, 2008, 08:41:47 AM »
Quote from: Kalimantan on October 06, 2008, 08:37:23 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 06, 2008, 08:32:30 AM
New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."

Which means they've dropped Pennsylvania from their Sunday swing-state polling, and added Missouri instead

Good decision. PA is probably not competetive anymore (sry Phil, but it's the reality), while MO is now a true toss-up.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #67 on: October 06, 2008, 08:51:05 AM »
Quote from: Zarn on October 06, 2008, 08:44:02 AM
Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

How was that saying again ?

If you want to live like a Republican, vote Democratic ?

Go and kick yourself and make 60% for Obama in New Jersey a reality ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #68 on: October 06, 2008, 09:07:54 AM »
Quote from: Zarn on October 06, 2008, 09:05:01 AM
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 06, 2008, 09:04:03 AM
The world will not come to an end if Obama is elected President, geez.

I'm more worried about continued deflation of the credit bubble and what it naturally leads to (currency deflation and economic collapse).  Which in turn, historically, has always led to war.

I didn't say the world would end. I said the economy will collapse.

Don't worry. Once the messiah is elected, he'll fix the economy with a snip of his finger.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #69 on: October 06, 2008, 09:17:34 AM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 06, 2008, 09:14:18 AM
I wonder if GA is in play with an 8 point lead...

I´m more interested in West Virginia ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #70 on: October 07, 2008, 08:32:17 AM »
Tuesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #71 on: October 08, 2008, 08:32:07 AM »
Wednesday - October 8, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #72 on: October 11, 2008, 08:46:47 AM »
Saturday - October 11, 2008:

Obama 52% (+2)
McCain 45% (nc)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #73 on: October 12, 2008, 08:31:58 AM »
Sunday - October 12, 2008:

Obama 51% (-1)
McCain 45% (nc)

Obama leads by fourteen percentage points among women while McCain leads by two among men. Both men lead by an 86% to 12% margin among members of their own party while Obama holds an eight point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #74 on: October 15, 2008, 01:26:43 PM »
Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?
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